Another 200 yuan drop in Maotai is still a bottle of supply and demand contradictions behind price control

category:Finance
 Another 200 yuan drop in Maotai is still a bottle of supply and demand contradictions behind price control


This is not the first time that the price of Feitian Maotai has fallen. In fact, the price of Feitian Maotai has fallen in mid-September compared with that of August. After visiting the market, reporters learned that the price of Feitian Maotai has fallen again around the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day has warmed up slightly.

A securities dealer who studied Maotai said that the core reason for the decline was that before the Mid-Autumn Festival, various channels began to release volume and supply increased. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, there might be panic selling by Maotai hoarders, but demand was weakened by falling price expectations and falling investment attributes. He believes that the price of Moutai has entered the bubble stage, but it does not mean that Moutais price can not rise again. Moutais price trend is not good enough to judge and needs more time to judge.

A liquor industry practitioner told reporters that the price of Feitianmaotai is the benchmark of liquor. The price of other major liquor products is difficult to surpass that of Feitianmaotai. The price rise of Feitianmaotai will also lead to the price rise of liquor industry. In addition, Maotai is the leader of liquor industry and the king of A shares in China. Therefore, the price change of Feitianmaotai affects the mood of the market.

In November 2018, at the annual Maotai Overseas Distribution Conference, Maotai Chairman Li Baofang said, We can say here today that the price of Maotai liquor will not be adjusted this year and in the future, no matter it is Maotai liquor or or series liquor.

However, can the will and action of Maotai in Guizhou resist the market trend? On October 10, the reporter turned to the second-hand trading platform and saw that the price of recycling Feitian Maotai liquor was around 2000 yuan/bottle. When he visited the Beijing recycling old liquor store, he learned that the price of recycling Feitian Maotai liquor was about 1500 yuan/bottle. Even the price of recycling liquor was higher than the market guidance price of Maotai.

The price of Feitian Maotai is influenced by many factors, among which the contradiction between supply and demand is the crux. Regarding the reasons for the rapid rise of Maotai liquor price around 2019, Li Baofang has analyzed that the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the second is caused by the collection investment, which has both financial and investment attributes, the third is the hoarding and selling brought about by choosing the selling opportunity, and the fourth is the fixed channel sales, which makes the market unable to see Maotai liquor, resulting in an increasingly difficult bottle.

Feitian Maotai Price Drops Again

On October 10, a reporter visited the Maotai outlet in Dawang Road, Beijing, and asked about the price range between 2300 and 2400 yuan per bottle. A shop salesman told reporters that the price of Maotai fell to 2280 yuan per bottle the other day, which warmed up slightly in the past two days.

A Maotai salesman told reporters that the recent price trend in Maotai is unpredictable and the recent trend is downward, but when entering the peak season, especially at the end of the year, the price of Maotai will generally rise.

Even if there is a market price, when reporters want to buy, many stores can not take out Feitianmaotai in time. They say that they need to transfer goods and wait for several days.

Feitian Maotais price drop triggered panic in the market. On September 13, the news said that the price of Beijing Maotai had fallen sharply, from 2650 yuan to 2100 yuan the previous week. Businessmen panicked and even nobody dared to take delivery. On that day, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui liquor fell by more than 5%, while Maotai, Jinshiyuan, Kouzijiao and Yingjiagong liquor in Guizhou fell by more than 4%. Among them, Maotai Newspaper of Guizhou Province, the king of stockholders, received 1069.52 yuan.

Distribution reform

In the first half of this year, Maotai eliminated 593 distributors, accounting for 19.7% of the total number of original distributors. Maotai wants to increase direct marketing volume, reduce the proportion of distributorssales, and develop its power in supermarkets and commercial channels.

On September 20, Guizhou Provincial Tendering Co., Ltd. made the first public announcement on the invitation of investment to Maotai Liquor National Comprehensive E-commerce in Guizhou. The listed service providers were Zhejiang Tianmao Technology Co., Ltd. and Suning Easy-to-buy Group Co., Ltd. According to the investment invitation announcement issued by Guizhou Maotai Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. on July 18, the total supply of Feitian 53% vol500ml Guizhou Maotai Liquor (with cups) is 400 tons, and the supply of service providers is 170 tons, 130 tons and 100 tons respectively according to the comprehensive ranking. The winning contract was signed until December 31 this year.

Feitian Maotai Liquor of Suning Platform was booked from 0:00 on October 1 to 18:00 on October 7, and was rushed to buy at 10:00 on October 8. The second wave was booked from 10:00 on October 11 to 18:00 on October 17, and began to rush to buy at 10:00 on October 18.

Suning limited the threshold for Maotais rush to buy. The subscribers who participate in the pre-booking rush must be the authenticated users who become the formal Super member or senior member of PP Sports-Sports (annual package) of Suning before October 5, 2009, and have one purchase record of physical goods on the Suning E-Purchasing Line from January 1 to October 9, 2019 (the goods received have not been returned, and the single consumption amount is more than 76 yuan).

Nearly 370,000 real-name certificated Suning Super members passed Sunings strict rules of pre-order and snap-up, and got the chance to compete in speed on Sunings eBay App at 10:00 on October 8.

Feitian Maotai, a hot single product, is draining Suning. People close to Suning say that Suning is not satisfied with the sales of household appliances in recent years, and is vigorously expanding the purchase of daily necessities department stores.

On September 30, Tianmao Supermarket announced that Maotai will be on sale during the National Day. On October 1st, at 10:00 and 22:00 a day, 500 ml of 53-degree Feitian Maotai will be sold in Tiancat Supermarket at a price of 1499 yuan per bottle.

Ali said that on September 20, after the news that Tianmao Supermarket became a service provider of Maotai e-commerce channel, the search volume of Maotai Supermarket soared by 1900% in a week.

Both Suning and Ali have restricted the purchase. Reporters learned that Tianmaos practice is that the same user can buy up to two bottles in 180 days. Suning Easy-to-buy has also introduced the same users single order to limit the purchase of two bottles, the same month to limit the purchase of two bottles.

The two e-commerce companies are also competing in transportation. Suning said that 90% of all orders for Feitian Maotai reached consumers on the same day. Ali said that Tianmao Supermarket will put a unique logistics ID on each bottle of Feitian Maotai, record the flow direction of each bottle of Maotai liquor, and adopt 24-hour video surveillance in and out of storage, and install electronic locks on all transport vehicles and other anti-counterfeiting safeguards.

Ali and Suning did not disclose the specific quantity of Maotai liquor and the current sales situation. Reporters observed that the two e-commerce liquor snatched up in a few seconds.

On-line channels, Feitian Maotai is also hard to find. Costco opened in Shanghai this year and sold Maotai for 1499 yuan. At that time, the Shanghai market boiled a few times. On October 10, the reporter visited the stores of Beijing Huazhi Wine Shop, which sold Feitian Maotai at 1499/bottle price. Some stores had Feitian Maotai, and some stores told reporters that they needed to transfer goods.

Maotai time and space reproduce media views, Maotai reform and expansion of sales channels can achieve a win-win situation: First, let the online and offline businesses involved in sales become big winners. Both Costco in Shanghai and Wumart and Tianmao have increased the loyalty of their customers. Secondly, Maotai has realized the social transformation of channel broadening by borrowing the channels of major supermarkets. For example, after Wumart continuously optimized its sales methods, Maotai stores were expanded from 17 to 69, covering major districts and counties in Beijing, Yanjiao, Sanhe River in Hebei, Langfang Guan, Zhangjiakou Shacheng, etc. Third, more consumers could buy Maotai at a reasonable price. After the businessmen improved their brand awareness and customer stickiness, they also urged them to sell liquor without hoarding liquor. Tianmao and Suning Easy-to-buy self-run Feitianmaotai second killer prices are 1499 yuan per bottle. In this regard, some marketing experts said that, unlike traditional distributor channels, which need a strong relationship or financial strength to buy Maotai liquor, e-commerce channels publicize the qualified consumers, and the competition is relatively fair.

Contradictions between supply and demand in Maotai

This years long vacation is short in Maotai, Guizhou Province. It ends on October 2.

On October 3, Maotai held the Production and Quality Conference 2020, which was held in the form of one main venue + 31 branch venues, with nearly 5,000 participants. This is the largest conference in Maotais history. According to the data released by the conference, a total of 499,900 tons of Maotai base liquor have been produced in the past year, and 236,000 tons of Maotai base liquor have been produced in six rounds.

Li Baofang said at the meeting that the output of Maotai liquor in 2019 was more than 3 tons higher than the historical average level in the past 30 years.

But Li Baofang also said that at present, such output still can not meet the market demand, there is still a phenomenon of price hikes in the market. Maotai has introduced a series of price stabilization and channel strategies this year, but improving production capacity is the key to solve the contradiction between supply and demand.

The amount of Maotai put into production in 2019 comes from the construction of basic liquor production capacity in 2014-2015. On September 17, this year, Maotai announced that it is expected to increase production capacity by 1500 tons in 2020.

On October 4, Maotai officially went down to sand, and a new production cycle in 2020 has been launched.

However, at the Maotai shareholdersmeeting held in May this year, Li Baofang said that Maotai liquor will have a production capacity of 56,000 tons by next year. After the expansion and commissioning, Maotai liquor did not expand for a considerable period of time.

Although Maotai is generally said to be used for drinking, not for speculation, Maotai is influenced by the multiple attributes of gifts, hospitality, collections and finance, and there are a large number of people hoarding goods. According to Huatai Securities Research, the terminal demand of Maotai is very strong. In this years golden nine silver ten traditional consumption season, the liquor industry in China shows a trend of rising volume and price. The Matthew effect of high-end liquor represented by Maotai in Guizhou Province is prominent, and the market prices and terminal retail prices continue to rise. According to the research paper, Maotais strong terminal demand will protect its performance throughout the year, and the companys performance may continue to grow rapidly. Huatai Securities gives Maotai stock a target price range of 1251.60 yuan to 1323.12 yuan, maintaining the buy rating. The tight market in Maotai also pushed up the stock price. At the close of October 11, Guizhou Maotai shares rose slightly by 1.7%, offering 1174.60 yuan per share. Source: Daily Economic News Responsible Editor: Yang Zeyu_NF6036

Although Maotai is generally said to be used for drinking, not for speculation, Maotai is influenced by the multiple attributes of gifts, hospitality, collections and finance, and there are a large number of people hoarding goods.

According to Huatai Securities Research, the terminal demand of Maotai is very strong. In this years golden nine silver ten traditional consumption season, the liquor industry in China shows a trend of rising volume and price. The Matthew effect of high-end liquor represented by Maotai in Guizhou Province is prominent, and the market prices and terminal retail prices continue to rise. According to the research paper, Maotais strong terminal demand will protect its performance throughout the year, and the companys performance may continue to grow rapidly. Huatai Securities gives Maotai stock a target price range of 1251.60 yuan to 1323.12 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.

The tight market in Maotai also pushed up the stock price. At the close of October 11, Guizhou Maotai shares rose slightly by 1.7%, offering 1174.60 yuan per share.