Central Plains Property Research Center data show that the overall stability of the National Day holiday real estate market, and gradually continue to decline, due to the lag of network signature data, temporarily unable to see the overall market data, but overall, during the National Day period, most of the city network signature suspension.
In terms of the number of online signatures in typical cities, 29 in the first six days of National Day, 35 in second-hand houses and 13 in second-hand houses on October 7, 2018 (7 on October 7) have increased or decreased compared with 2018.
During the National Day, the real estate monitoring data of Shanghai Central Plains showed that 7509 new second-hand houses were listed in the city, which was the lowest increase since the second half of the year, 21.3% less than the same period last year. And from the visiting situation of some stores, the number of visitors has also declined significantly.
The decline of market turnover is accompanied by the decline of housing promotion and land market. Many Housing enterprises launched a new round of promotions during the National Day, such as Shimao and Jinke offering down-payment and installment concessions, hoping to lock in customers; Huaxia Happiness adopts down-payment concessions to accelerate the return; Yajule, Jindi, Jinmao and other projects in Nantong and Xuzhou give price concessions; Xinli, Yuzhou, Zhongjun, Jinhui, Rongxin, Rongchuang and other projects in Nanchang and Zhengzhou. Preferential promotion appears.
At this time, the second-and third-tier urban market has changed, and the housing enterprises have started to move on the warehouse exchange while guaranteeing their performance. On the contrary, the land market of hot second-tier cities shows a downward trend. On October 10, eight plots of land in Nanjings main city were concentratively transferred. Among them, a residential plot in the southern New Town was suddenly cold, and was won by Nanjing Transportation Investment and Real Estate Co., Ltd. at a base price of 810 million yuan, with a floor price of 16597 yuan per square meter. Compared with the plot taken in Jinmao in July this year, the land price has dropped by nearly 13,000 yuan per square meter.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Central Plains Real Estate, believes that from the recent market point of view, cooling has begun to appear in some cities, new and second-hand housing market in many cities, there are price reduction promotions. Except for Shenzhen, the fever in Xiaoyangchun continues to subside in most of the hot first and second-tier cities.
Overall, in the first and second tier cities, the real estate market turnover in September was not significantly higher than in August, and the real estate market farewell to Jinjiu. Inventories in Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Fuzhou and other cities have increased to varying degrees.
In fact, the real estate market has been without gold and silver for many years. Since 2019, the decline of house prices has spread from point to area. Hot cities are gradually downward, and purchasing power can hardly support the market to continue to soar.
During the National Day, 21st Century economic reporters visited some regional markets in Shanghai. Intermediary Xiao Liu (not his real name) disclosed that in recent years, the number of calls from buyers is not much, but the number of sellers is increasing.
This may open a gap for a glued deal. Xiao Liu has been with a client for several years. In 2016, when the Shanghai property market was at a high level, he bought a first-hand house in Jiading New Town, renovated three large apartments, and recently sold it for more than 5 million yuan, accounting for a loss of about 300,000 taxes and fees.
Feedback from Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate shows that the market price still dominates the listing price of sellers, and some of them will take the initiative to reduce the listing price by 1-2 points in order to increase the number of houses to see and promote the transaction. At present, the bargaining range is still around 3% - 5%. Some of the better quality housing sources are easy to reach a deal quickly under price concessions.
In contrast, the listing volume and price of newly-needed housing resources are relatively stable, but there are still many pressures on some high-total housing resources, especially those with a total price of more than 10 million yuan. For example, there is a 140 square meter apartment with parking space in the central area of Carrey Wattings. In mid-September, about 13 million people were listed, which is now down by 500,000 yuan, only 300,000 yuan higher than the total price of a recently traded low-rise housing supply.
New commercial housing market, due to the adjustment of online real estate system, data statistics lagged in the Eleventh period. Although there is no data directly reflected, but Central Plains real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi believes that the market performance is still evident. Especially the market differentiation is still evident. Since this year, Shanghais downtown disintegration is slightly better than the suburban projects, and the recent performance of real estate is different.
For example, a project in Baoshan called out the purchase of BMW 5 series, in addition, the National Day holiday subscription of designated housing source sent Huawei the latest mobile phone, marketing campaign to earn eyeballs.
On the one hand, the transaction of 11 long holidays has shrunk. On the other hand, it is a routine that many customers go out to play and their attention to the real estate market has declined. On the other hand, due to the stability of the current real estate market, buyers have no sense of urgency to enter the market. On the other hand, the bad weather in the two days before National Day has also affected the housing inspection plan to some extent, which has a certain impact on the transaction. In addition, based on the sharp increase in new stock supply in September, the price advantage is also obvious. The more the city center area, the more obvious the phenomenon of upside-down second-hand house prices with the surrounding areas, the more pressure is brought to the regional transactions by diverting customers.
Lu Wenxi pointed out that the long vacation market can show the current market mentality, and some projects with poor de-industrialization will increase their marketing efforts to complete sales targets, while real estate without follow-up pressure will slow down. Most importantly, with the release of a batch of demand in the first half of the year, the continuation of new demand has become a barrier to trade. In essence, the regulatory policy of Shanghai has not changed, so the market demand is restrained. Although the current second-hand housing transactions are easy to achieve, but it will not trigger a wave of market. Adding to the general performance of the September second-hand housing transaction data, confidence will also be frustrated. It is expected that the October transaction will remain a turbulent downward pattern.
Previously, due to the relaxation of purchasing restrictions and the hot port-vicinity plate, also fell into bottlenecks, intermediary Zhang Chong (pseudonym) revealed that, due to the previous commitment of many real estate to customers to pay deposits, and other specific rules down can be netmarked, but now the rules have not been out, the plate transaction is also facing a decline.
Yang Yulei, a senior analyst at the Shanghai Chain Home Market Research Department, pointed out that since October 8, the impact of changes in mortgage interest rates on the market has been limited. First, it has little impact on the monthly supply. Second, under the guidance of the current housing policy, the market is mainly stable, and there are no factors causing huge fluctuations. From the cumulative sales year-on-year point of view, maintain at 50%, downward trend seems to temporarily stop.
Gold, Silver and Ten No longer
Source: Liable Editor of 21st Century Economic Report: Liu Song_NBJ9949