Exclusive | The Final Prediction of the Nobel Prize in Economics: Three Women or Cinnamon!

category:Finance
 Exclusive | The Final Prediction of the Nobel Prize in Economics: Three Women or Cinnamon!


Next Monday (October 14), we will welcome the new Nobel Prize winners in economics in 2019. Before making all the predictions, there is an interesting detail. A friend of mine who won the Nobel Prize in Economics a few years ago wrote to me a week ago and told me that he would go to MITs Department of Economics around October 10 for a few days of exchange visits. And I personally think that the most likely winner of this years MIT Economics Professor Delon Asimoglu and the Nobel Prize winner are pictured on the MIT Economics Department website. Did the winner of the Nobel Prize come across the ocean to see you? Congratulations on the New Kono Prize with champagne and caviar? My MIT colleagues already have 94 Nobel Prize winners. Will there be a new Nobel Prize winner? What a beautiful and warm scene. Lets wait and see...

Around this time of year, scientists around the world are a little excited, a little expectant, and a little worried. Because this time of year is when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Nobel Foundation announced the Nobel Prize of that year. The same is true of economists. The Nobel Prize in Economics is undoubtedly the highest honor in the field of economics. Perhaps we should calm down and think about something deeper and more rational when people all over the world are looking forward to holding their breath and preparing to open another Nobel Prize in Economics on October 14.

Winner Prediction

Paul Milgrom

Paul Migrom, a professor at Stanford University, is one of the most famous figures in the field of global auction and industrial economics. In the field of auction, Paul Milgrom, a tenured professor of economics at Stanford University, is undoubtedly a name that can not be ignored. In 1993, Migrom accepted the Commission of former President Clinton and participated in the auction of the Telecom Operating License of the Federal Telecommunication Commission of the United States (FCC). He accomplished the main design of the auction mechanism with genius, which made the FCC auction a great success. Therefore, Migrom became one of the most famous figures in the field of global auction and industrial economics, because of his design of spectrum auction. Work is famous all over the world. His current research interests are motivation theory, planning and auction market design.

Robert J. Barro and Philippe Aghion

Both of them are popular candidates for the Nobel Prize in Economics every year. Barrow has made pioneering contributions in the field of empirical macroeconomics, but whenever the Nobel Prize is awarded to the theme of macroeconomics, the winner should be Barrow. Barrow has been famous for many years, highly respected in the academic circles, and numerous works have been handed down. What he lacks now may be a Nobel Prize. Ageins most outstanding contribution is to establish Agein-Hoyt model based on creative destruction and develop it into a unified analytical framework, thus bringing Schumpeters economic growth theory back to the mainstream macroeconomic theory. Agein-Hoyt model is considered as an important and most promising branch of endogenous growth theory, and also occupies a place in the history of economic growth theory.

In 49 years since the first Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded in 1969, only one woman has won the Nobel Prize in Economics. She is Elinor Ostrom, the winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics. This year coincides with the 50th anniversary of the Nobel Prize in Economics. In line with the principle of women first, we first give priority to three women who may win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Anne Krueger

Carmen Reinhart

Carmen Reinhart, a Cuban-American working on public debt and economic growth, is a well-known development economist in the United States and one of the outstanding contemporary female economists. Over the past 50 years, Kruger has emphasized the importance of open and free markets in the process of economic growth. Her research will help people better understand the trade policy and rent-seeking behavior of developing countries, the role of government in the development process, the dynamic evolution of policy and the development of international economic integration. In the field of economic development theory and policy, Kruger, as an economist and senior official of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, has made outstanding contributions. Thanks to her and other scholarsresearch, the view that the reform from trade protection to trade liberalization can significantly improve the economic performance of developing countries has been widely recognized and accepted by theorists and policymakers, and largely contributed to the revival of neoclassicism in development economics.

Esther Duflo

Esther Duflo, a French development aid economist who likes to challenge authoritative views, is the most cited female economist in the world and co-author of many important economic works in the past decade. Reinhart is famous for his daring to question traditional economic theories. Her first well-known paper, published in 1993, was co-authored by two other IIVIF economists, Guillermo Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman. The paper questioned the prevailing view within IIVIF and other organizations that capital flows to Latin American countries because of their good economic policies. However, the three economists argue that external factors (including a favourable global environment and low interest rates) stimulate the flow of investment capital, which may soon cease if external conditions change. These three economists have proved correct: when the external environment changed, Mexico began in 1994, and many emerging market economies (including Asia in 1997, Russia in 1998, Argentina in 2001) experienced a sudden stop in capital flows. A few years later, Reinhardt and another economist, Graciela Kaminsky, questioned another accepted view. This view holds that the crisis mainly shifts from one country to another through trade links. In fact, they found that the root cause of this cascade effect was that there was little research on financing channels at that time.

Trends of Nobel Prize Winners in the Future

Goran Hansen has been Secretary-General of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences since 2015. He has publicly stated that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will adjust the nomination process to expand the diversity of potential winners. Last year, the Institute admitted that there were insufficient numbers of women and scientists from certain races among Nobel laureates. And although some theories are very important, they are not very helpful to promote peoples real life. For example, Donna Strickland, a 2018 award-winning physicist, and Frances Arnold, a chemical scientist, were widely welcomed after winning the award, but they did not make any substantial contribution.

The organization has proposed measures to address this problem by encouraging scientists to come up with more nominees. These measures include requiring more women to recommend candidates and changing the wording of letters inviting candidates. The new language clearly requires nominators to take into account gender factors, geographical location and the diversity of award-winning themes.

We hope that more countries in the world can build their own science. Science is an expensive and pure activity, which needs a stable research environment to support, so in different parts of the world, opportunities are very different. We all hope that this situation will gradually change, so that people from more countries will have more opportunities to engage in science.

Perhaps, given the obvious trend of globalization over the past 50 years, people may look more broadly and think more seriously about potential winners in other parts of the world, such as Australian and Asian economists. The well-known winning themes include international trade, time series analysis, welfare economics, economic growth, financial markets, economic development and macroeconomic theory. Will there be an economic award-winning theme based on big data and artificial intelligence in the future? Lets wait and see.

Rational View of Nobel Prize in Economics

Todays economics, although it includes philosophy, statistics and even sociology, can not deny that economic science and politics are inextricably linked. At this level, powerful ideas can become tools of public policy. When the Federal Reserve eased the inflation that plagued the United States throughout the 1970s, these concepts could create good forces. But at the same time, they can easily become dangerous.

There is an inherent danger in enabling economists to enjoy too much of the reputation and influence that the Nobel Prize halo brings to them. The most relevant economist who holds this cautious view is Friedrich Hayek, a senior Nobel Laureate in economics (F.A. Hayek, 1974 Nobel Laureate in economics). When Hayek won the prize in 1974, he said in his own acceptance speech that it was wrong to compare economics with other social sciences related to the Nobel Prize, such as physics. Economics involves complex social phenomena, while physics or chemistry involves more or less truth, speculative and reproducible theories. At present, the wide application of mathematics in economics has further exacerbated this misconception of scientific accuracy. In his book The Road to Slavery, which is widely discussed in the field of political economics, he sees that it is precisely because he understands the fatal combination of arrogance and certainty that he wishes to impress the audience that economics is still a subject of studying human beings, with all the irrationality and vulnerability of human beings.

Take John Hicks, a famous economist, for example. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1972, along with Kenneth Arrow, for his pioneering contribution to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory. Hicks is an outstanding economist, but even he is as prone to make some similar mistakes as others.

In 1937, Hicks put forward the IS-LM model, which became one of the most influential macroeconomic models in the 20th century. Today, the model still plays an important role in some of the most popular economic textbooks, and it has great influence. Ironically, Hicks himself was not satisfied with the model decades after making the proposal, and later pointed out, Those two curves shouldnt be together... They have nothing to do with the same picture. But when he said this, IS-LM model had a deep-rooted position in economic circles. The relationship between Hicks and the model, as well as the relationship between Hicks and the Nobel Prize, undoubtedly contributes more or less to the lasting impact of the IS-LM model.

A theory that people who make economic plans like its conclusions may increase its popularity. The IS-LM model gives the impression that a single interest rate will keep the whole economy in line. Planners like to believe that all the government needs to do to achieve full employment is to adjust the interest rate until it finds that the market clearance rate can be achieved.

Martin Weizmann, a renowned economist and Harvard economics professor who deserves the Nobel Prize, said a sad farewell to the world in the summer of 2019. The New York Times suggested that Weizmanns suicide was due to the fact that last years Nobel Prize in Economics was not awarded to him, but to his co-worker, William Nordhaus. Last year, two American economists, Nordhaus and Paul Romer, won the honor, but many colleagues in economics felt that the Nobel Prize Committees arrangement was very different from the consensus and difficult to understand. In the field of environmental economics, Weizmann and Nordhaus are both cooperative and debatable. Nordhaus himself revealed that when he learned that he had won the Nobel Prize for environmental economics alone, he was shocked and said, Why am I myself? Similarly, Romer has made outstanding contributions to endogenous growth theory, but the academic community generally expects Philippe Aghion to win the Nobel Prize for endogenous growth theory and Romer.

Professor Xu Chenggang mentioned that if last years Nobel Committee made no mistakes and assumed that Weizmann won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year, more young scholars would be encouraged to work with him. Weizmann is very creative, but with age, peoples ability in mathematics will decline. Mathematical competence tends to depend more on young people. If Weizmann is confirmed by the Nobel Prize, the difficulties he faces should be solved, and his talents can be easily passed on to young people. Unfortunately, none of this happened.

The Nobel Prize Committees judgments against public perception are many, for example, Mrs. Joan Robinson, one of the few economists who is considered by the economic community to be deserving of the Nobel Prize for Economics, has not been nominated. In addition, Stephen Ross (1944-2017), a professor at MIT and one of the most influential financiers in the world, has studied many important subjects in the economic and financial fields. He is the founder of arbitrage pricing theory and co-discoverer of risk-neutral pricing and derivative binary tree pricing model. And Jean Jacques Lafont (1947-2004), founder of the Institute of Industrial Economics, University of Toulouse, France, and one of the founders of new regulatory economics. Aoki Changyan is the only mainstream economist who has studied Chinese economy. And Frank Knight (1885-1972), founder of the Chicago School of Economics.

When did China have its own Nobel Prize winner in economics?

Predicting the year may be more difficult than predicting who wins the prize, and the easiest thing to do and the only effective way is to take action, popularize economic education, train young scholars full of speculative spirit, popularize the knowledge and research methods of economic foreword, and more importantly, integrate into the international community of economics, let good ideas stand out in the confrontation, and excellent economists stand out in the confrontation. Growing up in communication is the only way for Chinese scholars to win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

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Netease Research Bureau is a financial professional think tank created by Netease News. It integrates the original multimedia matrix of Netease Finance and Economics. It relies on the wisdom achievements of hundreds of top economists at home and abroad. It carries out rational and objective analysis and interpretation on hot topics of economics, and builds an attitudinal frontier financial think tank. Welcome to submit (e-mail: cehuazu [email protected]).

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