The analysis shows that although gold prices will be under pressure in the short term due to the easing of trade situation and the anticipated cooling down of the Feds interest rate reduction, in the long run, global economic growth lacks momentum, and the successive opening of interest rate reduction channels by central banks will still be conducive to the continued rise of gold prices.
For the future trend of international gold prices, many agencies are optimistic.
Western Pacific Bank raised its gold price expectations to $1510 an ounce at the end of 2019 from $1450 an ounce and $1480 an ounce at the end of 2020 from $1379.
Goldman Sachs believes that President Trumps comments have affected market expectations of a Fed rate cut, with gold expected to be around $1,600 an ounce by the end of this year.
Overseas Chinese Bank pointed out that according to the Federal Reserve recently put quantitative easing on the agenda, it is expected that the inflow of funds into gold ETF will continue to increase, which may push up gold prices, which may reach a high of $1,600 per ounce.
Citigroup said in its report that the target price of gold for 0-3 months was $1575 per ounce, while the target price for 6-12 months was $1700 per ounce.
In its latest forecast, Domingo Securities predicts gold prices will be $1550 per ounce in the first quarter of 2020, $1575 per ounce in the second quarter, $1625 per ounce in the third quarter and $1650 per ounce in the fourth quarter.
For the gold conceptual stocks in A-share market, China Galaxy Securities said that the downward trend of global economic resonance is becoming more and more obvious, the global central banks have cut interest rates back to loose monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates continuously, and the ECB has clearly proposed that it will restart the quantitative easing program in the future. In the process of economic downturn, the logic of the global central bank entering the monetary easing cycle will be constantly verified, which will depress the real yield of interest-bearing assets and boost the rise of gold prices, thus driving gold prices into a new round of rising cycle in the medium and long term. We will continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of gold plate and silver plate of Gold Shadow Stock. We recommend Shandong Gold, Yintai Resources, Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold and Silver Leading Shengda Mining Industry.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the U.S. economic data fell faster than expected, and interest rates were cut again or within the year. The uncertainty of economic and trade policies continued to rise. At present, it is the judgment that the trend of maintaining real interest rates fell and gold prices are in the first stage of rising. Gold-silver ratio keeps running at a high level. Under the background of marginal improvement of supply and demand structure, downward repair power still exists. Generally speaking, the gold/silver plate configuration value remains unchanged, and the precious metal plate will continue to be firmly valued. Focus on Shandong Gold, Hunan Gold, Shengda Mining, etc.
Anxin Securities said that the medium and long-term bull market of gold has been established, and after the short-term adjustment of gold and silver prices in the fourth quarter of 2019, it is expected to usher in a strategic buying point with better risk-return ratio. In the medium and long-term bull market of gold, A-share gold companies have strong performance elasticity and reappraisal potential. Considering the growth of production and reserve, production cost, capital operation and performance elasticity, the recommended targets are Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, Chifeng Gold and Western Gold in turn. Among them, Shandong gold has both production and storage growth and performance elasticity; high-cost enterprises such as Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold have greater performance elasticity; Hunan Gold and Chifeng Gold have both performance elasticity and valuation level. Assuming that the gold price is 315 yuan per gram, the net returns to the mother of Shandong gold in 2019 will increase by more than 100% compared with the same period last year, and the net returns to the mother of other gold companies in 2019 will also increase significantly. When gold prices rose by 40%, PE valuation levels of Shandong gold, Hunan gold and Chifeng gold have been digested below 20x, which has great potential for revaluation. Although the valuation level of Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold is relatively high, they show strong performance elasticity, and the net return to the mother increases significantly.
Source: First Financial Responsibility Editor: Guo Chenqi_NBJ9931