In terms of the number of online signatures in typical cities, 29 in the first six days of National Day, 35 in second-hand houses and 13 in second-hand houses on October 7, 2018 (7 on October 7) have increased or decreased compared with 2018.
During the National Day, the real estate monitoring data of Shanghai Central Plains showed that 7509 new second-hand houses were listed in the city, which was the lowest increase since the second half of the year, 21.3% less than the same period last year. And from the visiting situation of some stores, the number of visitors has also declined significantly.
The decline of market turnover is accompanied by the decline of housing promotion and land market. Many Housing enterprises launched a new round of promotions during the National Day, such as Shimao and Jinke offering down-payment and installment concessions, hoping to lock in customers; Huaxia Happiness adopts down-payment concessions to accelerate the return; Yajule, Jindi, Jinmao and other projects in Nantong and Xuzhou give price concessions; Xinli, Yuzhou, Zhongjun, Jinhui, Rongxin, Rongchuang and other projects in Nanchang and Zhengzhou. Preferential promotion appears.
At this time, the second-and third-tier urban market has changed, and the housing enterprises have started to move on the warehouse exchange while guaranteeing their performance. On the contrary, the land market of hot second-tier cities shows a downward trend. On October 10, eight plots of land in Nanjings main city were concentratively transferred. Among them, a residential plot in the southern New Town was suddenly cold, and was won by Nanjing Transportation Investment and Real Estate Co., Ltd. at a base price of 810 million yuan, with a floor price of 16597 yuan per square meter. Compared with the plot taken in Jinmao in July this year, the land price has dropped by nearly 13,000 yuan per square meter.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that in recent markets, some cities have begun to cool down, and the new and second-hand housing markets in many cities have seen price reductions and promotions. In addition to Shenzhen, most of the hot first and second tier cities have seen xiaoyangchun continue to reduce the fever.
As a whole, in the first tier and second tier cities, the volume of real estate transactions in September did not rise significantly compared with August, and the real estate market bid farewell to Jinjiu. Inventories in Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Fuzhou and other cities have increased to varying degrees.
In fact, the real estate market has been without gold and silver for many years. Since 2019, the decline of house prices has spread from point to area. Hot cities are gradually downward, and purchasing power can hardly support the market to continue to soar.
Trading volume is not optimistic
During the National Day, 21st Century economic reporters visited some regional markets in Shanghai. Intermediary Xiao Liu (not his real name) disclosed that in recent years, the number of calls from buyers is not much, but the number of sellers is increasing.
This may open a gap for a glued deal. Xiao Liu has been with a client for several years. In 2016, when the Shanghai property market was at a high level, he bought a first-hand house in Jiading New Town, renovated three large apartments, and recently sold it for more than 5 million yuan, accounting for a loss of about 300,000 taxes and fees.
Feedback from Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate shows that the market price still dominates the listing price of sellers, and some of them will take the initiative to reduce the listing price by 1-2 points in order to increase the number of houses to see and promote the transaction. At present, the bargaining range is still around 3% - 5%. Some of the better quality housing sources are easy to reach a deal quickly under price concessions.
It is down by 500,000 yuan, only 300,000 yuan higher than the total price of a recently completed low-rise housing supply.
New commercial housing market, due to the adjustment of online real estate system, data statistics lagged in the Eleventh period. Although there is no data directly reflected, but Central Plains real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi believes that the market performance is still evident. Especially the market differentiation is still evident. Since this year, Shanghais downtown disintegration is slightly better than the suburban projects, and the recent performance of real estate is different.
For example, a project in Baoshan called out the purchase of BMW 5 series, in addition, the National Day holiday subscription of designated housing source sent Huawei the latest mobile phone, marketing campaign to earn eyeballs.
On the one hand, the transaction of 11 long holidays has shrunk. On the other hand, it is a routine that many customers go out to play and their attention to the real estate market has declined. On the other hand, due to the stability of the current real estate market, buyers have no sense of urgency to enter the market. On the other hand, the bad weather in the two days before National Day has also affected the housing inspection plan to some extent, which has a certain impact on the transaction. In addition, based on the sharp increase in new stock supply in September, the price advantage is also obvious. The more the city center area, the more obvious the phenomenon of upside-down second-hand house prices with the surrounding areas, the more pressure is brought to the regional transactions by diverting customers.
Lu Wenxi pointed out that the long vacation market can show the current market mentality, and some projects with poor de-industrialization will increase their marketing efforts to complete sales targets, while real estate without follow-up pressure will slow down. Most importantly, with the release of a batch of demand in the first half of the year, the continuation of new demand has become a barrier to trade. Essentially, Shanghais regulatory policy has not changed, so the market demand has been restrained. Although the current second-hand housing transactions are easy to achieve, but it will not trigger a wave of market. Adding to the general performance of the September second-hand housing transaction data, confidence will also be frustrated. It is expected that the October transaction will remain a turbulent downward pattern.
Previously, due to the relaxation of purchasing restrictions and the hot port-vicinity plate, also fell into bottlenecks, intermediary Zhang Chong (pseudonym) revealed that, due to the previous commitment of many real estate to customers to pay deposits, and other specific rules down can be netmarked, but now the rules have not been out, the plate transaction is also facing a decline.
Yang Yulei, a senior analyst at the Shanghai Chain Home Market Research Department, pointed out that since October 8, the impact of changes in mortgage interest rates on the market has been limited. First, it has little impact on the monthly supply. Second, under the guidance of the current housing policy, the market is mainly stable, and there are no factors causing huge fluctuations. From the cumulative sales year-on-year point of view, maintain at 50%, downward trend seems to temporarily stop.
Zhang Dawei believes that the gold, nine silver and ten silver property market which attracts much attention every year has occupied the most important proportion of the whole year in history from September to October. However, with climate change and the change of temperature requirement of concrete, the effect of real estate regulation policy on the market cycle after 2009 is far greater than that of the spontaneous behavior of buyers. In addition, the long vacation in October also makes it difficult for first-and second-tier cities to have a clear buying trend.
According to the data of many organizations, the volume of new residential buildings in the first and second-tier hot cities rose slightly from January to September because of Xiaoyangchun. The total number of new residential buildings in 22 hot cities was 1.113 million, up 2.8% from 1.12 million in the same period in 2018. Thirteen cities in 22 cities rose year-on-year in the first nine months, of which 27,000 units were contracted in Beijing in the first nine months, up 76% from 15,000 units in the same period in 2018, due to the increase in the supply of restricted competitive housing.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that xiaoyangchun, after the 2019 Spring Festival, gradually reduced its fever in the third quarter due to the influence of various subsequent policies. With the heavy pressure of regulation and control of the real estate market, the tightening of credit, especially the attention paid to the new LPR method of calculating interest rates on October 8, the market has been watching again recently.
Intensive regulation also led to the gradual stabilization of the property market: 385 real estate regulation in the first nine months of 2018. From the point of view of the intensive degree of regulation and control policies, 415 adjustments were made in the first nine months of 2019, with an average of more than two adjustments per working day, which has set a new historical record. 2019 is the most intensive year of real estate policy, and in the content of real estate policy, the real estate financial risk rarely mentioned in the past was intensively mentioned in 2019. In total, in 2019, the central ministries and commissions have issued 25 speeches or policies to prevent the real estate financial risk.
Although there are still many upward cities, the market has shown signs of gradual stabilization. In Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Hefei and other cities with strict control policies, the downward trend of house prices has appeared. Specific performance: hot cities began to enter the era of selling out, the average premium rate of land transactions in first-and second-tier cities fell to the lowest level in nearly two years. Bottom price transactions in the market have become the mainstream. Industry insiders pointed out that the future market trend, mainly depends on the credit quotation situation of Oct. 8, as well as the LPR pricing of Oct. 20.
Recently, the second-hand housing market in the second-tier cities has a distinct difference in transaction, and real estate enterprises are also actively changing warehouses in the process of introducing price reduction promotion strategies. According to the statistics of Xingye, China and Thailand, Xiamens popularity continues, and Suzhous regulation and control on May 11 adds codes. The transaction data has been weakening in the near future. The number of second-hand houses in Xiamen increased by 40% year-on-year in the week before National Day, 15% annually, 42% year-on-year since September, and 163% year-on-year since the beginning of the year.
The week before the National Day of Suzhou (the same below) was 11% less than the previous year, 13% more than the previous year, 21% less than the previous year since September, and 32% more than the previous year.
Chengdu and Nanjing continued to warm up, and Hangzhou began to strengthen recently. The number of second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu increased 34% year-on-year, 36% year-on-year, 18% year-on-year since September, 36% year-on-year since the beginning of the year, 129% year-on-year in Nanjing, 23% year-on-year in Nanjing, 73% year-on-year since September and 24% year-on-year since the beginning of the year. Hangzhou increased 81% year-on-year, 31% year-on-year, 36% year-on-year since September, and 11% year-on-year since the beginning of the year.
According to the consultation and Research Report on the same policy, during the National Day period, there were large price concessions for housing projects in Nanchang and Zhengzhou, the main first and second-tier cities, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Yangzhou and Xuzhou, the main third and fourth-tier cities, and the concessions of other cities were generally small. Because of government control, Wuhan did not have any major promotional activities.
Some Housing enterprises generally adopt the strategy of drastic price reduction and Warehouse Clearance for strategic exit from cities or regions. For example, in mid-September, a leading housing enterprise was suspended by the local government because of the dramatic price reduction of Guilin project.