Another 200 yuan drop in Maotai is still a bottle of difficult price control behind the contradiction between supply and demand reconciliation?

category:Finance
 Another 200 yuan drop in Maotai is still a bottle of difficult price control behind the contradiction between supply and demand reconciliation?


This is not the first time that the price of Feitian Moutai has fallen. In fact, the price in the middle of September has fallen compared with that in August. Later, the reporter visited the market and learned that the price of Moutai fell again around the Mid Autumn Festival, and the national day slightly recovered.

A liquor industry practitioner told reporters that the price of Feitianmaotai is the benchmark of liquor. The price of other major liquor products is difficult to surpass that of Feitianmaotai. The price rise of Feitianmaotai will also lead to the price rise of liquor industry. In addition, Maotai is the leader of liquor industry and the king of A shares in China. Therefore, the price change of Feitianmaotai affects the mood of the market.

In November 2018, at the annual meeting of overseas distributors of Maotai, Li Baofang, chairman of Maotai, said in response to the rising price of Maotai liquor in the market, we can responsibly say here today that the price of this year and for some time to come, whether it is Maotai liquor or series liquor, will not be adjusted.

However, can the will and action of Maotai in Guizhou resist the market trend? On October 10, the reporter turned to the second-hand trading platform and saw that the price of recycling Feitian Maotai liquor was around 2000 yuan/bottle. When he visited the Beijing recycling old liquor store, he learned that the price of recycling Feitian Maotai liquor was about 1500 yuan/bottle. Even the price of recycling liquor was higher than the market guidance price of Maotai.

The price of Feitian Maotai is influenced by many factors, among which the contradiction between supply and demand is the crux. Li Baofang once analyzed the reasons for the rapid rise of Maotai liquor price around 2019. Firstly, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent; secondly, it was caused by collection and investment. Maotai liquor had both financial and investment attributes; thirdly, it was hoarded and reluctant to sell when it was sold; fourthly, it was sold through fixed channels, which made Maotai liquor invisible in the market, which made a bottle of hard to find increasingly fierce.

Feitian Maotai Price Drops Again

On October 10, a reporter visited the Maotai outlet in Dawang Road, Beijing, and asked about the price range between 2300 and 2400 yuan per bottle. A shop salesman told reporters that the price of Maotai fell to 2280 yuan per bottle the other day, which warmed up slightly in the past two days.

This price is much higher than the guideline price of Maotai 1499 yuan per bottle.

A Maotai salesman told reporters that the recent price trend in Maotai is unpredictable and the recent trend is downward, but when entering the peak season, especially at the end of the year, the price of Maotai will generally rise.

Even if there is a market price, when reporters want to buy, many stores can not take out Feitianmaotai in time. They say that they need to transfer goods and wait for several days.

Feitian Maotais price drop triggered panic in the market. On September 13, the news said that the price of Beijing Maotai had fallen sharply, from 2650 yuan to 2100 yuan the previous week. Businessmen panicked and even nobody dared to take delivery. On that day, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui liquor fell by more than 5%, while Maotai, Jinshiyuan, Kouzijiao and Yingjiagong liquor in Guizhou fell by more than 4%. Among them, Maotai Newspaper of Guizhou Province, the king of stockholders, received 1069.52 yuan.

Distribution reform

Maotai wants to control its price from the reform of distribution.

In the first half of this year, Maotai eliminated 593 distributors, accounting for 19.7% of the total number of original distributors. Maotai wants to increase direct marketing volume, reduce the proportion of distributorssales, and develop its power in supermarkets and commercial channels.

Before the National Day, Suning Easy-to-buy signed a contract with Maotai, Guizhou Province, and formally became the national comprehensive e-commerce bidder for Maotai Liquor in Guizhou Province. It will sell 500 ml Feitian Maotai Liquor at the price of 1499 yuan per bottle.

Feitian Maotai Liquor of Suning Platform was booked from 0:00 on October 1 to 18:00 on October 7, and was rushed to buy at 10:00 on October 8. The second wave was booked from 10:00 on October 11 to 18:00 on October 17, and began to rush to buy at 10:00 on October 18.

Suning limited the threshold for Maotais rush to buy. The subscribers who participate in the pre-booking rush must be the authenticated users who become the formal Super member or senior member of PP Sports-Sports (annual package) of Suning before October 5, 2009, and have one purchase record of physical goods on the Suning E-Purchasing Line from January 1 to October 9, 2019 (the goods received have not been returned, and the single consumption amount is more than 76 yuan).

Nearly 370000 real name certified Suning super members have passed Sunings strict booking and rush buying rules, and gained the opportunity to compete on Suning e-commerce app at 10:00 on October 8.

Feitian Moutai, a hot single product, is leading Suning. People close to Suning say that Suning has been dissatisfied with the sales of household appliances in recent years and is vigorously expanding the purchase of general merchandise.

On September 30, Tianmao Supermarket announced that Maotai will be on sale during the National Day. On October 1st, at 10:00 and 22:00 a day, 500 ml of 53-degree Feitian Maotai will be sold in Tiancat Supermarket at a price of 1499 yuan per bottle.

Ali said that on September 20, after the news that Tianmao Supermarket became a service provider of Maotai e-commerce channel, the search volume of Maotai Supermarket soared by 1900% in a week.

Both Suning and Ali have restricted the purchase. Reporters learned that Tianmaos practice is that the same user can buy up to two bottles in 180 days. Suning Easy-to-buy has also introduced the same users single order to limit the purchase of two bottles, the same month to limit the purchase of two bottles.

The two e-commerce companies are also competing in transportation. Suning said that 90% of the countrys 1499 yuan Feitian Moutai orders were delivered to consumers on the same day. Ali said that Tianmao Supermarket will put a unique logistics ID on each bottle of Feitian Maotai, record the flow direction of each bottle of Maotai liquor, and adopt 24-hour video surveillance in and out of storage, and install electronic locks on all transport vehicles and other anti-counterfeiting safeguards.

Ali and Suning did not disclose the specific quantity of Maotai liquor and the current sales situation. Reporters observed that the two e-commerce liquor snatched up in a few seconds.

On-line channels, Feitian Maotai is also hard to find. Costco opened in Shanghai this year and sold Maotai for 1499 yuan. At that time, the Shanghai market boiled a few times. On October 10, the reporter visited the stores of Beijing Huazhi Wine Shop, which sold Feitian Maotai at 1499/bottle price. Some stores had Feitian Maotai, and some stores told reporters that they needed to transfer goods.

Maotai time and space reproduce media views, Maotai reform and expansion of sales channels can achieve a win-win situation: First, let the online and offline businesses involved in sales become big winners. Both Costco in Shanghai and Wumart and Tianmao have increased the loyalty of their customers. Secondly, Maotai has realized the social transformation of channel broadening by borrowing the channels of major supermarkets. For example, after Wumart continuously optimized its sales methods, Maotai stores were expanded from 17 to 69, covering major districts and counties in Beijing, Yanjiao, Sanhe River in Hebei, Langfang Guan, Zhangjiakou Shacheng, etc. Third, more consumers could buy Maotai at a reasonable price. After the businessmen improved their brand awareness and customer stickiness, they also urged them to sell liquor without hoarding liquor. Tianmao and Suning Easy-to-buy self-run Feitianmaotai second killer prices are 1499 yuan per bottle. In this regard, some marketing experts said that, unlike traditional distributor channels, which need a strong relationship or financial strength to buy Maotai liquor, e-commerce channels publicize the qualified consumers, and the competition is relatively fair.

The contradiction between supply and demand in Maotai

This years long vacation is short in Maotai, Guizhou Province. It ends on October 2.

On October 3, Maotai held the Production and Quality Conference 2020, which was held in the form of one main venue + 31 branch venues, with nearly 5,000 participants. This is the largest conference in Maotais history. According to the data released by the conference, a total of 499,900 tons of Maotai base liquor have been produced in the past year, and 236,000 tons of Maotai base liquor have been produced in six rounds.

Li Baofang said at the meeting that the output of Maotai liquor in 2019 was more than 3 tons higher than the historical average level in the past 30 years.

But Li Baofang also said that at present, such output still can not meet the market demand, there is still a phenomenon of price hikes in the market. Maotai has introduced a series of price stabilization and channel strategies this year, but improving production capacity is the key to solve the contradiction between supply and demand.

The amount of Maotai put into production in 2019 comes from the construction of basic liquor production capacity in 2014-2015. On September 17, this year, Maotai announced that it is expected to increase production capacity by 1500 tons in 2020.

On October 4, Moutai officially went to the sand, and a new round of production cycle in 2020 has been started.

Although Maotai is generally said to be used for drinking, not for speculation, Maotai is influenced by the multiple attributes of gifts, hospitality, collections and finance, and there are a large number of people hoarding goods.

According to Huatai Securities Research, the terminal demand of Maotai is very strong. In this years golden nine silver ten traditional consumption season, the liquor industry in China shows a trend of rising volume and price. The Matthew effect of high-end liquor represented by Maotai in Guizhou Province is prominent, and the market prices and terminal retail prices continue to rise. According to the research paper, Maotais strong terminal demand will protect its performance throughout the year, and the companys performance may continue to grow rapidly. Huatai Securities gives Maotai stock a target price range of 1251.60 yuan to 1323.12 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.

The tight market in Maotai also pushed up the stock price. At the close of October 11, Guizhou Maotai shares rose slightly by 1.7%, offering 1174.60 yuan per share.

Source: Responsible Editor of Economic Observation Network: Chen Hequn_NB12679