Three years of bumpy listing whether ink weather highlights the development dilemma of App tools

 Three years of bumpy listing whether ink weather highlights the development dilemma of App tools

On the evening of October 11, according to the announcement of the audit results of the 142nd meeting of the 18th IEC in 2019 issued by the CSRC, the IPO of Beijing ink cloud Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as ink weather) failed. Become the only company among the four companies that failed in the first round.

Ink weather was founded in May 2009, downloaded 4 million users in 2011, and registered more than 100 million users in 2012. In 2013, it initiated the live weather crowdsourcing mode, realizing UGC assisted PGC weather correction. In 2014, we began to transform into smart hardware. We launched the first test of smart hardware and accumulated 400 million users. In 2015, we accumulated 470 million and 35 million daily lives. The application for IPO will be submitted in 2016.

Since the queuing of GEM in 2016, ink weather has been waiting for nearly three years, but it has been repeatedly hit by a wall.

According to the prospectus submitted on January 23, 2018, ink weather will raise 338 million yuan to upgrade the APP system, invest in research project centers and supplement liquidity. From the point of view of the use of funds, the founder of such a scale of fund-raising did not think clearly what story ink weather will tell in the future.

Ink Weather has been used to raise funds for the purchase of financial products. In 2016, the companys financial products earned more than 4 million yuan. The prospectus clearly indicated that the companys purchasing of financial products was financed by equity financing. Buying wealth management products in large amounts of cash shows that management does not know how to spend money, or does not think clearly about the future, and is too cautious about the pace of user growth.

The bottleneck of development is the core problem facing tool App. Similarly, Master Lu, a company just listed in Hong Kong stock market, rose sharply on the first day of its listing on October 10. However, Master Lus offering price was HK$2.7 per share, which was even lower than Master Lus previous round of financing price, with a discount of 83%. According to the interface analysis, Master Lu, who is also a tool product, also has some problems such as suspected related party transactions and hard injury in the product line.

Back in ink weather, the SFC pointed out that its main problems include the operation qualification of Internet information services, user privacy, over-reliance on advertising, and suspected related party transactions with customers (Ali, Suning, Tencent, etc.) who have direct or indirect equity relationships.

I. Excessive reliance on advertising management qualifications

With the demographic dividend of the mobile age, ink weather experienced explosive growth and quickly became the unicorn of weather-like App. At present, it has a stable and large market share.

According to observable data statistics, as of 2018, ink weather ranked 31 in the application of the whole network, second in the first-class utility category, and first in the second-class weather application category. According to the MAU ranking of mobile Internet industry published by Trustdata in the first half of 2019, ink weather ranks first in the category of practical tools.

According to the statistics of Ink Web, the software has accumulated more than 560 million users, more than 500 million queries per day, and the average daily use time has reached 2 minutes and 36 seconds.

The general logic of App tool class is to increase the users usage time, and then to advertise cash, or to divert other Apps.

According to the prospectus, the companys total assets and liabilities are 313.566 million yuan, 442.234 million yuan, and the owners equity is 269.342 million yuan (December 31, 2017). Most of its revenue is from advertising.

Risk hints point out that in 2014, 2015, 2016 and January-September 2017, the proportion of publishersInternet advertising information service revenue is 94.84%, 98.12%, 98.99% and 98.86%, respectively.

The above sales figures basically announce the failure of the companys hardware attempt. On the contrary, air fruit has dragged the company into patent litigation. The litigant is the companys former supplier. By the time the company disclosed the prospectus in early 2018, there were 4 pending lawsuits related to the results of intelligent hardware.

In contrast, the marketing cost of ink weather increased significantly year on year. With the end of the Internet traffic dividend, the cost of getting customers from major Internet companies is increasing, and ink weather is unavoidable.

From January to September, 2014 to 2017, the promotion costs of ink weather were 67.8837 million yuan, 30.7946 million yuan, 67.1603 million yuan and 55.5642 million yuan, respectively. The growth rate was multiplied. There is a risk that if the unit price of promotion rises sharply in the future, the cost of promotion will rise and the net profit of the company will decline.

Ink weather is high and gross profit is high. Its average gross profit rate of more than 80% is still very prominent compared with the same free + advertising model companies:

From the digital point of view, a huge user base and high daily life are the only choices for advertising companies. Advertising costs for inkblot weather remain at a cheaper level in the industry.

Brand Advertising Price:

Effective advertising price:

This is also the reason why ink weather advertising business can continue to grow - high cost performance.

But in contrast, the user experience is getting worse. Users have opened weather App, and there are already multiple advertising and information flow entries. The category of advertising also extends to all levels of clothing, food, housing and transportation. There are also new video information services. Although these services improve the liquidity of apps, they also entail risks.

The documents of the SFC require that the issuer issue drug advertisements before obtaining the qualification certificate of Internet Pharmaceutical Information Service; the existing APP of the issuer has video programs and game programs, as well as hospital advertisements; whether the issuer needs to handle the Information Network Dissemination Audiovisual Program License or implement the filing procedures for the advertising business; and whether the issuer needs to handle the Information Network Dissemination Audiovisual Program License; In line with the Advertising Law and Interim Measures for Internet Advertising Management and other laws and regulations and industry regulatory policies, whether they have been subjected to administrative penalties.

According to the prospectus, the specific conditions of various business qualifications that ink weather has acquired are as follows:

Up to the time of publication, inkblot weather had not yet responded to the interfacial journalistsinquiries about such business qualifications.

2. It is difficult to build a moat without technical barriers

Unlike other tools like App, the Weather business is still in its infancy in China.

The Weather Company (TWC), a weather company in the United States for more than 20 years, has built-in weather data for all iPhones and Android phones (except in China). The magic of TWC lies not only in its predecessor being a 24-hour weather station, but also in IBMs $2 billion acquisition of its data services business in 2016.

TWC has more than 40 million weather stations and 100,000 weather sensors worldwide. It has 13 weather data centers across the United States, and even has its own weather satellite and radar network. ToC can provide customized weather services for individuals, such as rainfall distribution in different areas of the work route, 3D dynamic street condition information, etc. ToB has more than 5,000 customers in aviation, energy, insurance and retail, logistics, including Bloomberg, American Airlines, Canadian Airlines, etc.

Taking aeronautical meteorological service as an example, TWC can provide airlines with real-time turbulence, thunderstorm detection and early warning system for the whole flight period, and on this basis, route planning and fuel addition are carried out. IBM says the service package can reduce airline losses by 50% due to airflow.

The famous Delphi Meteorological Law in the field of Meteorology indicates that the ratio of input to output of meteorology is about 1:98, that is, the economic return of 98 yuan can be obtained for every investment of 1 yuan in the field of meteorology. Weather directly affects peoples travel, daily life and work, even affects peoples physiology and psychology, and then guides or dominates peoples consumption behavior, which constitutes the meteorological industry. The basis of commercialization.

Meteorological data services are very mature industries in the United States, Japan and Europe. There are about 350 commercial meteorological service companies active in the United States, with a total market of more than $6 billion and an annual growth rate of nearly 25%. In Japan, weather news in. (WNI), a weather service company, provides weather services for more than 6000 freighters and 7000 flights every day.

At present, the meteorological data of ink weather APP mainly comes from Beijing Meteorological Bureau, which acquires the data by signing three-year long-term cooperation agreements, such as Beijing Wanyun Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. under Beijing Meteorological Bureau.

The good news is that in August 2015, China Meteorological Administration issued the National Outline for the Modernization of Meteorology (2015-2030). It proposed to encourage and support the development of all kinds of ownership meteorological service enterprises and non-profit meteorological service institutions. Chinas meteorological information will be fully opened by 2020, and private capital will be encouraged to cooperate with the Meteorological Bureau.

The company also purchases global meteorological data from overseas meteorological data companies, mainly for large meteorological data research and meteorological information display of overseas cities. The main overseas data acquisition targets are MGD-AQI (Meteo Group) (Netherlands), Weather News (Japan), Accuweather, INC. (United States), and the purchase amount is small. The overall meteorological data covers more than 200000 cities and regions around the world.

Ink weather has also been collected by intelligent terminals with sensors, such as ink weather with Meizu, Huawei, General Motors and other mobile phones, smart hardware, automobiles and so on.

In addition, inkblot weather created a real-time crowdsourcing model in 2013 to automatically correct weather information. UGC assisted PGC is realized. Every day about 60,000 users upload weather maps and send 200,000 copies. Unfortunately, this UGC model has not been widely promoted as the core business model of ink weather.

Take the retail industry as an example, because beverage sales are directly related to local weather, sales of cold drinks will increase significantly as the temperature rises. WNI, Japan Meteorological Corporation, has provided such an overall solution for 711 convenience stores. The manager of 711 distribution stores does not need to use his own personal judgment, but directly orders goods through WNIs customized meteorological information.

But at present, the application of AI technology in the field of weather can not be used as the core technology threshold of ink weather. At present, all mobile phones have built-in weather systems (Huawei Weather, iOS Weather, MIUI Weather), weather, cloudy weather and other similar volume of APP, all share the market share of ink weather.

3. Relying on Ali Tencent but falling into the whirlpool of affiliated transactions

Careful study of the ownership structure of ink weather will reveal that this is a company backed by Ali Tencent and has many star investors.

Founder Jinli holds 10,387,978 issuer shares, accounting for 34.63% of the issuers total equity, which is the actual controller. Other investment institutions with more than 5% shares include Danfeng Investment, Ali Venture Capital, Innovation Workshop, etc.

Among them, Alibaba, as a shareholder with a stock ratio of up to 15%, is inextricably linked to ink weather. Alibaba is a shareholder, a supplier and a big customer.

Among them, the revenue is mainly related to the advertising revenue, cost and cost of the transactions with Tmall, Ali and mama, and so on, mainly for IT service costs and promotion costs such as Alibaba and Alipay.

In the second half of 2016, in order to expand the offline promotion channels, ink weather APP was pre-installed in mobile phones equipped with Ali YunOS system, which was lower than the market average price. From January to September 2017, Zhejiang Tianmao launched brand advertisements with the theme of Tianmao New Year Festival, Tianmao 618 Ideal Life Carnival, Tianmao Summer Festival in ink weather APP, which resulted in a higher amount of advertising than the previous year. There was a slight increase; Golden put in effect advertisements in 2014, 2015 and 2016; and the rookie purchased a small amount of air fruit from the company in 2014.

As a company that relies heavily on advertising, the top five end-users of Ink Weather include Tencent, Baidu, Ali and Blue Biao, whose revenue contribution rate dropped from 80% in 2014-2016 to 45% in 2017, and related party transactions with Alibaba Group decreased year by year during the reporting period.

Shenzhen Tencent has been the companys primary customer during the reporting period, with annual revenue accounting for about 20%. Shenzhen Tencent is a 44% partner of Beijing Innovation Company with 4.95% of the issuers equity. It has suspected affiliate relationship with the issuer. In its feedback, the SFC also asked the enterprise to explain the reason and rationality of not disclosing it by comparing the affiliate and affiliated party transactions.

The Risk Reminder points out that although there is no single customer dependence, if the business situation of the companys main customers deteriorates or the cooperation relationship with the company ceases to exist, it may have a negative impact on the companys performance.

Since the end of 2016, Ink Weather has formulated ToB strategy, established a new distribution model through cooperation and hunger. Based on the historical short-term weather forecast data, historical takeout distribution data and the latest short-term weather forecast data, a distribution plan for the next two hours has been formulated. More cooperation also includes local life service enterprises such as meituan.

Source: Responsible Editor of Interface News: Yang Bin_NF4368