During the National Day, the 21st Century Economic Reporter exchanged with many buyers and found that, from Beijings 930 regulation in 2016, after more than two years of a round of strict regulation, housing prices really fell? Is this the best time to buy a house? Wait or get in first? Many users just need to start their calculations.
Changes in the mindset of home buyers also exacerbate market differentiation. - Gan Jun photo
Householdsmentality has changed
Why do you think you have to wait?
Song Yuanchun told reporters that he thought there were two main reasons why he could buy it again next year. First, Chongqing began to restrict sales for two years from 2018, and by 2020, there will be a large number of second-hand housing supply listed. Although Chongqing has always been dominated by new housing transactions, the increase in the supply of second-hand housing will obviously squeeze new housing. And he is going to buy a house in Zhaomushan Plate in the north of Chongqing, which is the area with the largest volume of second-hand housing transactions in Chongqing, and may be more affected in the future.
The second reason is related to his own work. Song Yuanchun found that in recent years, more and more people came to him to consult insurance business. In his view, from the perspective of asset allocation, insurance was not the first choice for investors in Chongqing before. Peoples enthusiasm began to shift from investing in real estate to other directions, indicating that the heat of the real estate market has actually declined.
Song Yuanchuns analysis shows that Chongqing is famous for its massive supply of residential land. After this round of house price rise, unless it buys a house for itself, it cant see the investment value of real estate for the time being. It also faces many problems, such as difficulty in realizing, trouble in renting, low rent, trouble in inheriting and changing, and high cost. Therefore, he feels that there is still room for adjustment in Chongqings real estate market.
Biping works for a start-up company with a household registration in Tianfu New Area, Chengdu, where the purchase restriction policy is the most stringent. He bought a new house near Line 5 in Tianfu New Area, which is about to open to traffic. Although it is nearly 20 kilometers away from the urban area, there may still be room for appreciation in view of the close proximity to the unit and the future release of the purchase restrictions.
In Bipings view, although there have been sporadic rumors of price reductions in Chengdu in 2019, it is difficult for Chengdus housing prices to have a substantial basis for price reductions. On the one hand, Chengdus housing prices in the second-tier cities have not been high. On the other hand, due to the reason that his parents used to work in Ganzi Prefecture, West Sichuan, Bi Ping knows that it has become a trend for staff in Ganzi Prefecture to buy houses in Chengdu after retirement. In some buildings in Wenjiang District, the western suburb of Chengdu, even nearly half of the residents in the community are from Ganzi Prefecture.
In this regard, some analysts of the top 10 Housing enterprises told economic reporters in the 21st century that although it is difficult to predict the future trend of specific cities in advance, the emergence of such ideas as wait again means that the mentality of new buyers is no longer panicky, and buyers choose more, which means the arrival of housing market opportunity.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that there are three elements to judge the future market, namely, the change of LPR interest rate, the change of supply and the change of financing of real estate enterprises. Overall, the real estate market is stable without speculation, which is the mainstream. Interest rates on mortgages will not fluctuate too much.
Zhang Dawei believes that the attention to the new LPR interest rate calculation method on October 8, in particular, has made the market wait-and-see mood strong recently. From the point of view of the main first and second-tier cities in China, the current interest rate level is slightly different from that in the second quarter of 2019, but more than 80% of the cities still maintain the lowest interest rate in the past two years. Currently, mortgage rates in all cities have not risen compared with the fourth quarter of 2018.
Increased market differentiation
Changes in the mindset of home buyers also exacerbate market differentiation.
According to the data of Yiju Research Institute, in September, the turnover area of four first-tier cities decreased by 4% and 26% year-on-year, 18 second-tier cities increased by 13% year-on-year, and 18 third-tier and fourth-tier cities increased by 7% year-on-year and decreased by 2% year-on-year.
Among them, the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in 8 second-tier cities in eastern China increased by 6% annually and 45% year-on-year; the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in 4 second-tier cities in central China decreased by 9% annually and increased by 21% year-on-year; the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in 6 second-tier cities in other regions (Northeast and West) increased by 4% annually and decreased by 13% year-on-year.
From the number of rising and falling cities, 64 cities rose annually, 30 cities fell annually, and 6 cities were the same as last month. Ningbo, Foshan, Xiamen and other places have declined, while Jinan, Xiamen, Zhuhai, Langfang and other places have declined.
On the other hand, in some cities with relatively late property market rotation cycle, such as Dongguan, Foshan, Wuhan, Chongqing and other places, there has been a significant decline in transaction volume during this years National Day Golden Week. Dongguan fell by 30%, Foshan by 47%, Wuhan and Chongqing by 32% and 11%.
On the second-hand housing level, during the Golden Week of National Day this year, the total volume of second-hand housing transactions in 14 key cities increased slightly by 5.7% over the same period in 2018, slightly higher than the 2.7% increase in the first nine months of 2019. Vertical comparison with other years, the overall market volume is still at a low level.
Prices are also at a standstill. According to the data of China Research Institute, in September 2019, the average price of (newly built) houses in 100 cities nationwide was 15051 yuan / m2, up 0.31% month on month, 0.06 percentage points lower than last month. During the same period, the average residential price in Beijing, Shanghai and other ten cities was 27219 yuan per square metre, up 0.34% annually, 0.09 percentage points more than last month.
Returning home to buy property is out of business, the market of the third and fourth lines is cooling down, and the markets are differentiating. In the future, the concept of city level is invalid. The division of the first, second and third lines is of little significance. On the contrary, the city circle and urban agglomeration will become the hot spot of real estate investment, Zhang Dawei said. Then its the suburbs.
Insufficient momentum for volume growth
Households expect to change, market differentiation is also intensifying, the next step, the real estate market cycle will have what kind of trend? Beijing, which has always been the vane of the property market, may indicate the direction of the next stage.
As a stock market dominated by second-hand transactions, China Real Estate Association-sponsored APP shows that in recent months, the average price of second-hand houses in Beijing has dropped by 1.05% compared with the previous month.
In fact, there may be more room for decline. An intermediary broker in Chaoyang District of Beijing told reporters that there are many buildings in his area with an average price of about 110,000. The transaction cycle after the listing of housing resources is prolonging, and the distance between the listing price and the transaction price is also widening. In recent years, many houses in his region with a total price of more than 8 digits have been sold at a price about 10% lower than the listed price, and many of them can even reach 15%.
In response, a buyer who saw the improved demand for three-day apartments during the National Day in Beijing told reporters that in the past two years, Beijings policies have been more stringent in controlling the improved purchase, and the second apartment needs 80% down payment. And the first suite just need to be able to bear is generally less than 5 million houses, for tens of millions of improved housing demand, even if the sale of the first suite there is a big gap. This is equivalent to breaking the chain of house-changing that has existed in Beijing in the past. Therefore, supply and demand are gradually out of balance, and the whole market has actually entered the buyers market.
In fact, as the contradiction between supply and demand slows down, the owners right to speak is obviously weakened. Compared with the same period last year, Shell Research Institute calculated a concept of owners compromise degree by subtracting the final average transaction price from the first listing price of housing resources. This data shows that during the Golden Week of National Day this year, the owners compromise degree of Beijing exceeded 12%, and that of Hangzhou was close to 1%. 0% and more than 6% in Shanghai. And the range has been expanded compared with last year. In fact, 12 of the 14 core cities in shells statistics have increased owners compromise.
In the new housing market, due to the large-scale listing of restricted bidding houses in 2019 and the performance needs at the end of the year, previously strong developers also began to have real gold and silver promotional activities. For example, Jindi launched the 30-day Red Pan Action in Beijing in September, launching 100 sets of special price houses, 10,000 sets of quality houses, with the highest discount rate reaching 4.5 million.
In fact, policy-oriented housing, including common property rights housing, has become a new choice for some newly-needed buyers, which jointly affects the supply and demand changes of the property market.
An interesting phenomenon is that because of the strict restrictions on the sale and purchase of property-owned housing, it is difficult to meet the future housing demand, and it is not popular in the initial stage of listing. With the increasingly stringent regulation of real estate, there has been an outbreak of transactions in this year. According to the data of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the first nine months of 2019, Beijing completed more than 16,000 net-labels of total property rights, which is more than twice the volume of 7681 units in the whole year of 2018.
In Zhang Daweis view, Beijing has formed a healthy purchase gradient consumption of 10 million commercial housing houses, 6 million commercial housing houses and 3 million public property houses.
Under the clear statement of not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy of the central government, the expectation of the real estate market has changed. Although in the next few months, some real estate enterprises will increase their push and discount promotions due to the shortage of funds and the year-end sprint of scale performance, but the turnover is difficult to increase significantly, especially in the unregulated or weak regulation of the hot turnover in 2018. In the third and fourth-tier cities, transaction volume will face a greater risk of decline.
Source: Responsible Editor of Economic Report in the 21st Century: Chen Hequn_NB12679