Consumption Tax New Deal Invaded Liquor Industry Tax Increase Amount or Over 30 Billion

category:Finance
 Consumption Tax New Deal Invaded Liquor Industry Tax Increase Amount or Over 30 Billion


In addition, most market participants believe that the impact of high-end liquor and leading companies in related industries is limited or even beneficial, while the impact of policies on small and medium-sized enterprises and second-and third-tier companies is relatively large.

Removal of Consumption Tax Attention

In October 9th, the State Council issued the plan of promoting the reform of central and local income division after the implementation of a larger scale of tax reduction and fee reduction.

From the perspective of the three reform measures, the first two focuses on stabilizing expectations and balanced sharing, while the third one focuses on enriching local income, which is part of incremental reform.

According to the plan, in accordance with the requirements of improving the local tax system reform, under the premise of controllable collection and management, the current consumption tax items collected in the production (import) link are gradually moved to the wholesale or retail link to collect, expand local income sources, and guide the local to improve the consumption environment. The approved base of the stock part of the reform and adjustment shall be solved by the local authorities, and the incremental part shall belong to the local authorities in principle.

In fact, the voice of consumption tax has long existed. In August this year, Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, published a signed article expressing that the Ministry of Finance will actively cooperate with the relevant parties of the National Peoples Congress and accelerate the legislative work of relevant taxes, which explicitly mentions consumption tax.

The above-mentioned plan is also clear that the reform aims to further straighten out the relationship between central and local financial distribution, support local governments to implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies, and ease financial difficulties. Especially for the local government, it will cultivate and strengthen the local tax sources, and enhance the ability of the local government to cope with larger-scale tax reduction and fee reduction.

Liu Guohong, director of the Institute of Finance and Modern Industries of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, also told reporters of Securities Times E Company that there is an urgent need for local governments to open up sources and find the main local taxes. He expects that the scope of consumption tax will gradually expand from luxury goods announced in the scheme in the future. He also pointed out that under the current circumstances, it is necessary for local governments to levy consumption tax. Expanding domestic demand and expanding consumption are more mentioned in recent years, but the effect is not obvious. The frontline government directly carrying economic development has no income, and it lacks enthusiasm. If the consumption tax is adjusted, it will help to improve the enthusiasm of local governments.

After the announcement of the plan, some securities dealers said that the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress at the end of October was an important time window for the adjustment of consumption tax. Considering that consumption tax must be introduced this year, and legislation must go through the Standing Committee of the peoples Congress, which is held every two months. In December, the Standing Committee of the peoples Congress collided with the central finance and economics working conference and so on. It may be a better choice to launch in October.

Liquor was included as a consensus expectation

As far as the plan is concerned, at present, the specific adjustment catalogue of consumption tax is not clear. It only points out that the specific adjustment items have been fully demonstrated, submitted for approval one by one, and then implemented steadily. Firstly, we should reform the items with mature conditions, such as high-end watches, precious jewelry and jewelry and jade, and then we should carry out the pilot reform on other qualified items in combination with the consumption tax legislation.

The plan did not specify liquor commodities, but as soon as the news of the postponement of consumption tax came out, the relevant parties in the capital market immediately paid attention to the impact on liquor, especially the liquor industry. Securities companies have predicted that liquor industry will be included. Moreover, this view has also been recognized by policy and market participants. Liu Guohong said that liquor must be within the scope of collection in the long run, and Fang Lie also said that liquor should be included in the scope sooner or later.

It is understood that in the composition of the consumption tax, the income of the consumption tax is relatively concentrated, and the four categories of cigarettes, refined oil, passenger cars and wine contribute 90% of the income. Liquor is the most obvious liquor industry affected by policy.

According to the analysis of CICC, this plan has a great potential impact on the follow-up of liquor, with a small impact on beer and other alcoholic drinks. At present, beer only benefits from the amount of tax, which will moderately benefit from the increase of tax in the circulation of liquor industry; it has a small impact on the liquor industry in the short term and a large impact in the medium and long term. The whole liquor industry is difficult to collect consumption tax in a short period of time, but local governments will be active to collect consumption tax from distributors first.

But there are also views that consumption tax has little impact. Danbin, who has long paid attention to and invested in Maotai, quoted a friends opinion on consumption tax on his micro-blog on October 10, saying, This policy is mainly fiscal. After the tax revenue is collected, how will the financial department allocate it? It is not a new news for us, and pointed out that if the consumption tax of liquor moves from the production link to the sales link, it will be good for the production enterprises, but at the beginning of the implementation of the consumption tax, the production enterprises have set up corresponding sales organizations, lowered the tax base of the consumption tax, and in 2009 the General Administration issued a bottomless document, the tax basis of consumption tax is not entirely in accordance with. The sales price of the production enterprise is determined by referring to the price of the sales company, so if the reform of consumption tax is transferred from the production link to the sales link, it should have little impact. The policy of retaining the bottom tax rebate is good for the enterprises whose means of production are rising and the sales market is stable.

Fang Lie told the Securities Times e Company reporter: The consumption tax may be a part of the levy, the production link is not likely to be abolished, the incremental part of the transfer to the local circulation link levy or transfer part of the production link to the circulation link.

The impact will differentiate

In any case, it is generally believed that the impact of the post-tax shift on the industry will be polarized, with limited impact on the leading companies in various fields and greater impact on the sub-high-end or low-price markets.

As for liquor companies, Fang Lie bluntly said, The impact on Maotai is limited, the impact on sub-high-end and second-and third-line liquor will be more obvious. He pointed out that each bottle of Maotai liquor currently has a difference of 500 yuan between the factory price and the guiding price, the distributor has enough profit space, and there is a huge difference between the factory price and the market price. Maotais greater profit originally lies in the hands of distributors and cattle, even if the tax-added part of the channel digestion, compared with other liquor space is still much larger.

Ye Fei, general manager of Yitian Investment Management Co., Ltd., also favors high-end liquor. He points out that the consumption groups of high-grade liquor and low-grade liquor are different, and the customers are sticky. And to put it bluntly, Will Maotai-led high-grade liquor be cheaper in the next three years than it is now? It survived the plasticizer incident, the anti-corruption, Maotai does not fall, the red flag flutters.

In addition, there is also an analysis that the consumer tax should be moved back to raise prices on the line. But the price increase is not all feasible, Fang Lie said: Consumption still has a lot to do with price, too expensive will certainly affect the quantity, and the best thing is to have a degree. In addition, he pointed out that the future levy of liquor consumption tax is likely to be like a tax, the more expensive the price, the higher the tax rate. As far as liquor is concerned, there are also differences in the ability to transfer taxes and fees by raising prices. According to one market analyst, high-end liquor has a strong ability to transfer taxes and fees, with a lot of short-term and long-term space; while middle-and low-end liquor may appear to subsidize the difference to the terminal in order to share and sales volume, with short-term and long-term and short-term. As for health care products, some industry analysts say that the bonded products industry is in a melee period. In order to share the price, manufacturers will pay nearly 20% extra tax to overcome difficulties and deep binding with distributors. Those small factories that rob the market at low prices and low quality will die out faster, but their share will accelerate to centralize to the giants. Source: Responsible Editor of Securities Times: Yang Bin_NF4368

In addition, there is also an analysis that the consumer tax should be moved back to raise prices on the line. But the price increase is not all feasible, Fang Lie said: Consumption still has a lot to do with price, too expensive will certainly affect the quantity, and the best thing is to have a degree. In addition, he pointed out that the future levy of liquor consumption tax is likely to be like a tax, the more expensive the price, the higher the tax rate.

As far as liquor is concerned, there are also differences in the ability to transfer taxes and fees by raising prices. According to one market analyst, high-end liquor has a strong ability to transfer taxes and fees, with a lot of short-term and long-term space; while middle-and low-end liquor may appear to subsidize the difference to the terminal in order to share and sales volume, with short-term and long-term and short-term.

As for health care products, some industry analysts say that the bonded products industry is in a melee period. In order to share the price, manufacturers will pay nearly 20% extra tax to overcome difficulties and deep binding with distributors. Those small factories that rob the market at low prices and low quality will die out faster, but their share will accelerate to centralize to the giants.