Expert Solution: Turkeys army, the United States abandons its allies, Syria is too difficult!

 Expert Solution: Turkeys army, the United States abandons its allies, Syria is too difficult!

BEIJING, Oct. 11 (Guo Peishan) On Oct. 9, Turkey launched a military operation code-named Spring of Peace to northern Syria. Up to now, many people have been killed and injured by the attacks by the Turkish army, and infrastructure has been seriously damaged. The Syrian government strongly condemned Turkeys aggression, while the Ankara authorities said it was intended to eliminate the terrorist threat against Turkey.

Syrian state television reported on October 9 that the Turkish army launched a military operation on the same day in northern Hasek province of Syria. The Turkish army launched intensive artillery shelling on the target of the Syrian Democratic Army led by the Syrian Kurdish armed forces in Las Ain city of the province, causing damage to local infrastructure and a large number of people fled.

Earlier, the United States showed a non-participation, non-support attitude; 9, President Trump also said that northern Syria has no U.S. soldiers. Expert analysis said that this is to pave the way for Turkeys military offensive. At the same time, the international parties have voiced that the military operation, or to the terrorists in this position to take advantage of the opportunity.

Turkish army smoke has been burning, the border conflict between Syria is on the brink of fire. What is Turkeys intention in this military operation? What kind of impact will it have on the Middle East, which is still in turmoil?

Turkish Armys Sword Finger Syrian Kurdish Armed Forces: A Deliberate Action

On October 9, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the military operation on the Syrian border was officially launched. The goal is to clear the Kurdish self defense forces in the Turkish Syrian border area and establish a security zone for the settlement of four million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Up to now, the Turkish army has launched attacks on the northern part of Syriasak and Lakar provinces, resulting in at least eight civilian deaths and 20 civilian injuries. After extensive shelling and air strikes, ground troops have also been mobilized.

In fact, the resentment between Turkey and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces has a long history. The former defines the latter as a terrorist organization. Since 2014, the Turkish government has continuously extended the bill allowing the fight against Kurdish armed forces in Syria. The Spring of Peace operation was first proposed in August 2019, the third military operation launched by Ankara against Kurdish armed forces since 2016.

Source: CCTV video screenshots

The United States abandoned its former allies, but still drew a red line for Turkey.

Kurdish armed forces have long been an important ally of the United States in Syria to combat the terrorist organization Islamic State (IS). However, when the Turkish Army decided to target the Kurds at gunpoint, the U.S. government chose silence.

On October 7, President Trump publicly stated in the social media that he would withdraw the U.S. military. Ive postponed this fight for nearly three years, but now its time to end these endless wars, he said. The previous day, the White House also issued a statement saying that the United States does not participate in, does not support the action.

According to American public opinion, the unusual statement of the White House kept silent about the fate of the Kurds, which meant that the United States had basically abandoned the Kurdish armed forces that had fought against IS side by side.

Source: US President Trump.

Why did the United States make such a decision? On this issue, Li Shaoxian, Dean of the Chinese Academy of Arab States, Ningxia University, told Xinhua that Trumps government has three objectives. First, it is in line with Trumps deployment strategy to the Middle East, namely no investment. Second, the United States is trying to ease the recent tensions between Turkey and the United States. Third, Trump is facing impeachment at home and is about to run for company. The withdrawal of troops will be conducive to their selection.

However, the United States is not entirely let go of Turkeys actions in Syria. There should be some kind of agreement between the United States and Turkey, and I think they all know to what extent [Turkey] can do it. Li Weijian, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Policy of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and vice president of the China Middle East Society, said, If Turkey crosses the red line, the United States will also take action, such as imposing an economic blockade.

On October 9, 2019, the Turkish army launched a military operation in the northern part of Hasek Province, Syria, causing damage to local infrastructure and a large number of people fled.

Who moved their cheese when establishing a security zone on the border of Syria?

At present, the parties have different definitions about the military operation. The Syrian government defines it as Turkeys aggression against Syria, and Trump used the term aggression in his statement on the 9th. However, the Ankara authorities believe that the military operation is aimed at eliminating the terrorist threat to Turkey and at peace.

Li Weijian said that for a long time, the Kurds in Syria have been regarded as a hidden danger by the Turkish government. The fundamental purpose of Turkeys involvement in the Syrian war was to prevent the Kurds in Syria from forming a linkage with the Kurds in Turkey.

Li Shaoxian also said that the fundamental purpose of the Turkish government in this military operation is to establish a security zone to isolate the Kurds from both sides and eliminate the heartbreak. At the same time, Syrian refugees fleeing to Turkey will be settled here to ease the burden.

Source: Turkish troops.

According to the previous news, the security zone was agreed by the United States and Turkey in August 2019, but the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on the scope and management of the security zone, leading to slow progress. Syrian authorities also condemned the plan, saying it undermined Syrias territorial integrity.

Li Shaoxian believed that Turkeys goal of establishing a security zone could not be achieved. On the one hand, it is not easy to establish asecurity zonewithin a depth of 30 kilometres and up to 500 kilometres, and there are many difficulties such as funds and infrastructure. On the other hand, the establishment of asecurity zonein Syria seriously violates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and will also be widely opposed by the international community.

Are the international community worried about the return of terrorist forces?

Over the past few days, various parties in the international community have voiced their voices, or called on Turkey to stop military operations or condemned it. The UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on October 10 to discuss Turkeys military operations. At the same time, the League of Arab States has also indicated that foreign ministers of all countries will meet on the 12th to carry out discussions.

The European Union had warned that military operations in northeastern Syria would lead to the displacement of large numbers of refugees, possibly a major setback to end Syrias eight-year civil war. French authorities also said that the Kurdish armed forces are the main force in Syrias ground attack on IS, if launched against Kurdistan, fear to boost the morale of radicals.

Source: Turkish President Erdogan.

How will Turkeys military action affect the situation in Syria?

According to Li Shaoxians analysis, it is possible for the Kurds to declare an end to the fight against the remaining IS elements after they are abandoned by the United States. This will give these terrorist organizations a resurgence and create a great opportunity.

Li Weijian said, At present, the situation in Syria itself is not completely stable, and the political process is not very smooth. In this case, coupled with Turkish disturbance, the situation will become more complex, which may delay the political settlement process of the Syrian problem.

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