Why does the BDI index soar all the way under the background of increasing downward pressure of the global economy and rising trade protectionism? At the same time, international shipping prices are rising. According to CCTV news, shipping prices have also reached their highest level in nearly nine years.
In view of the rapid rise of international shipping prices, Yu Deming, general manager of Dalian Yuefeng Wanxin International Logistics Co., Ltd., told Daily Economic News that, according to market rules, influenced by factors such as Halloween and Spring Festival, international shipping has entered the peak season since the third quarter of each year, so the price appears to a certain extent. Its normal for the degree of increase. However, from the perspective of business volume, port business volume is generally declining, and excessive growth may be a short-term phenomenon, or there are some abnormal factors.
This years BDI Index has experienced a roller coaster
In 2019, the BDI index has been falling all the way. Data from China Shipping Network show that from January 18 to February 11, 2019, the BDI index dropped from 1112 points to 595 points, a cumulative decline of nearly 50%.
In July 2018, the BDI index climbed to 1774, the highest level in the year. But since the beginning of 2019, BDI has turned around and fallen. From 1282 on January 2 to 595 on February 11, the decline would be 53.6%. The last time the BDI index fell below 600 points, it still goes back to June 2016.
The reporter of daily economic news noted that in the first two quarters of this year, the BDI index was running at a low level. However, after June 13, the BDI index began to rebound, soaring from 1062 to 2191 on July 22. After a brief setback, the index continued to climb from August 8 to 2518 on September 4, reaching its highest level in nearly nine years.
For the recent upward trend of the BDI index, some analysts said that, firstly, the BCI (Baltic Cape Index) rose rapidly due to the concentrated shipment of Brazilian mines and a large number of Chartered vessels; secondly, the installation of desulfurization towers into the mine fleet also increased the demand for chartered vessels and led to higher freight rates; moreover, the adjustment of the weight of BCI also increased before. The impact on the BDI index.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research of the Ministry of Commerce, told Daily Economic News that, on the one hand, entering the peak season of dry bulk market in the second half of each year, adding up the impact of the upward BCI index, has played a significant role in promoting the upward trend of the BDI index. On the other hand, BDI has been depressed for a long time since its inception. Many shipping enterprises have withdrawn from the market and reshuffled their cards. There is a phenomenon of price retaliatory rebound.
There is a ship queuing and cargo pressure port in the port
Recently, CCTV News reported that there are obvious phenomena of ship queuing and cargo pressure in Zhoushan Port, Ningbo. Wang Jingyu, head of shipping business of Ningbo Minmetals Shipping Agency, said that the average waiting time in May and June may be one to two days, and in July and August at least two to three days or more.
At the same time, Yu Deming also told reporters that if the number of commodity shipping matches the actual demand, there will be no serious yard, and the goods will be quickly removed after arrival at the port. Why should it be piled up in the port? High storage operation is not conducive to the safety of the yard.
On the other hand, with regard to the substantial increase in shipping prices, Yu Teming told reporters that the international economic downturn is an indisputable fact, and the entire international shipping market is actually shrinking. Many shipping enterprises have withdrawn from the market, and the precipitated enterprises have begun to seek mergers and acquisitions to eliminate competitive pressures. My own company runs to Ouji Port. In the past, when business volume was low, people grabbed orders and lowered prices. Now, after the merger of several companies, the past three ships are running, and now they have become one. Freight charges increase instead of decreasing.
Bai Ming told Daily Economic News that the emergence of queuing ships and cargo pressure ports shows that there is a distance between the international market and domestic demand, and does not exclude speculation, leading to a large number of goods accumulated in ports. If the demand for the order matches perfectly, it will be taken away immediately after arrival. Thus, there may be a disconnect between shipping and end-user demand.
Xin Chaohui, head of the yard team of Ningbo Zhoushan Port Ore Company, also said that the high storage operation is not conducive to the safety of the yard, so we are trying to find ways to transport outward, including by train.
Declining orders in the global shipbuilding industry
Although the BDI index is closely related to the trend of the global shipping market, many professionals interviewed by Daily Economic News believe that the rising international shipping price is not the real recovery of the shipping market.
Yu Deming told reporters that the previous slump in the shipping market led to corporate mergers and acquisitions to reduce competitive pressure and enhance the ability to control market prices. The number of ships built may also decrease sharply, and the number of ships scrapped will increase, which will reduce the number of the whole fleet. When the demand for international shipping is higher than the actual shipping capacity, the shipping price may rise.
In addition, the reporter noted that according to Clarksons latest statistics (as of August 16, 2019), the global shipbuilding industry signed 32 new ships in July 2019, a total of 627936CGT (revised total tonnage). Compared with June, there were 11 fewer rings and a 44.20% drop in revised gross tonnage rings. Compared with July 2018, there was a decrease of 74 units and a decrease of 76.79% in the revised gross tonnage.
From January to July 2019, 478 new ships were ordered, totaling 30533112 tonnes. Compared with 1093 new orders signed in the same period in 2018, totaling 58147524 tonnes, the number of ships and tonnage decreased by 56.27% and 47.49% respectively.
Source: Daily Economic News Responsible Editor: Yang Bin_NF4368