Pre-Festival probabilities of Hong Kong stocks will continue to decline and pay attention to the opportunities of individual stocks

category:Finance
 Pre-Festival probabilities of Hong Kong stocks will continue to decline and pay attention to the opportunities of individual stocks


Following the pace of the Federal Reserve, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut interest rates by 25 basis points

Can the rebound momentum of Hong Kong stocks continue to cool down the risk aversion mood?

On Monday, three major U.S. stock indices rose and fell, with the index falling 0.3 points, the NASDAQ falling 5.2 points and the Dow rising 15.2 points, according to Chi Tong Financial APP. The ADR index of Hong Kong stocks weakened throughout the day, falling 125.55 points or 0.48% on a pro rata basis. Large blue chips, HSBC Holdings closed at HK$59.83, down 0.17 Hong Kong dollars from Hong Kongs closing price; Tencent Holdings closed at HK$335.30, down 2.30 Hong Kong dollars from Hong Kongs closing price.

In late New York trading, the dollar index rose 0.16% to 98.6357. Mitsubishi UFJ expects the dollar to remain strong this week, with little room for a rise, as the US interest rate market is vulnerable to further easing of monetary policy this year. U.S. Treasury bond yields rose and fell unevenly. Except for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bond yields fell 1.6 basis points, the other gains and losses did not exceed 1 basis point.

NYMEX crude oil futures closed up 0.69% at $58.49 a barrel for three days. Jameel Ahmad, FXTMs global chief exchange rate strategist, said that tensions in the Middle East had raised the risk once again, possibly keeping oil prices high this week. Most of Londons basic metals fell, with tin falling 1.05% in LME and aluminum falling 2.03% in LME.

The ADR index of Hong Kong stocks closed at 26320 points, up 8.14 points or 0.03%. For large blue-chip stocks, HSBC Holdings (00005) closed at 59.83 yuan, down 0.17 yuan from Hong Kongs closing price; Tencent Holdings (00700) closed at 355.28 yuan, down 2.32 yuan from Hong Kongs closing price.

Mondays release of the euro zones manufacturing PMI for September was disappointing, with an initial value of 45.6, the lowest since October 2012; both the service sector PMI and the integrated PMI were below expectations. The IHS Markit report says this indicates that the euro zone economy grew by only 0.1% in the third quarter and will deteriorate further in the coming months. The September PMI of manufacturing industry, service industry and comprehensive PMI published by Germany and France were not up to expectations. Italy lowered its GDP growth target from 0.8% to about 0.6% by 2020.

Three major European stock indexes fell collectively on Monday, with Germanys DAX index and Frances CAC40 index both falling more than 1%, while the Stoke 600 index fell 0.8%, the biggest one-day decline in a month. At the end of the European market, German 10-year benchmark bond yields fell 5.9 basis points to -0.581%, and on August 28 they hit a record low of -0.728%. The current deposit rate of the European Central Bank is - 0.4%.

In September, the initial PMI of Markit manufacturing industry was 51, which was higher than expected. In September, the initial PMI of Markit service industry in the United States was 50.9, which was lower than expected. Data show that for the first time since February 2010, the U.S. service sector employment index has fallen below the boom and bust line.

According to the ECB OIS, the probability that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 80.5%. According to CMEs Bank of England Observation, the probability that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged in November is 87%. According to CMEs Fed Observation, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 53.4%.

If you are still struggling with the impact of the external environment on the market at this moment, and whether you will release the benefits in the future, you might as well give up short-term game opportunities and focus on the defensive sectors such as consumption and health care in the medium term, so as to maintain the first half of the surpluses at least. Long-term trend... Investors are invited to check the trend of the Hang Seng Index over a year ago.

The pre-Festival probability of Hong Kong stocks will continue to decline, if there is a rebound of 1-2 days, it can also be understood as more than a bounce. Yesterday, Zhitong Finance and Economics APP unraveling column, also very clear, the gold category is relatively strong, high selling low attraction to be firm; technology stocks collectively lower, or because of profit closure, wash dishes, affected by the peripheral market. The column also suggests that individual stocks focusing on Hong Kongs retail sector need to pay attention to risk. The above judgment seems to have become the standard routine for nearly 1-2 months. In the case of weak market, investors can refer to this instructions for allocation.

Finally, the editor reminds investors to pay attention to the announcements of Church of China Holdings (00839) A$128 million acquisition of Kings College of Australia and China Pacific (02601) plans to issue GDR and list on the London Stock Exchange. The core competitiveness of the former is the merger and acquisition integration strength of private higher education and vocational education industry, which is the main way for the private higher education industry where the holding company is located to improve its scale in the next five years, and also the main reason why the past P/E ratio of the company is higher than that of the industry. The latter plans to issue GDR news, there are also securities firms to comment on the first time, Guotai Junan Securities team believes that this is a merit in the present, benefit in the future. Considering that the GDR issuance may lead to the improvement of the companys long-term competitiveness, and even in the extreme pessimistic scenario, the short-term stock price decline is still limited.

Source: Editor-in-Charge of Zhitong Finance and Economics Network: Wang Honggui_NF7326