China-Singapore Longitudinal and Weft Client Telegraph, Sept. 12, recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces (districts and municipalities) in August. Among them, 11 provinces such as Guangxi and Hainan increased more than the whole country.
In August, the CPI of the whole country rose by 2.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was in the two times for six consecutive months. From the ring comparison, the consumer price of the whole country rose by 0.7% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude clients, the CPI of 11 provinces increased more than the national average in August. In August, CPI rose at the same rate as the whole country. CPI in 17 provinces increased less than that in the whole country. Among them, Guangxi rose 5.2%, ranking first, the highest in two consecutive months.
The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that pork supply was tight in August, with prices rising by 23.1%, an increase of 15.3 percentage points over the previous month, affecting CPI by about 0.62 percentage points. Affected by the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and consumption substitution, the prices of eggs, beef, mutton, chicken and duck increased by 2.0% - 5.9%, which affected the CPI by about 0.10 percentage points. Affected by typhoon and hot weather, fresh vegetable prices rose by 2.8%, affecting CPI by about 0.07 percentage points.
According to the Research Report of Nanjing Bank, the price of pork and related livestock has gone up seasonally under the imbalance between supply and demand, which has led to the increase of food prices, which is the main reason for the CPI increase this month.
Pork Drives Food Prices
This year, affected by various factors such as the downward cycle of pigs and the situation of African swine plague, Chinas pig production capacity has declined, resulting in tight market supply and rising prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pork prices began to rise in March and continued to rise rapidly in August.
Shen Xinfeng, Macro Analyst of Northeast Securities, pointed out that the main reason for the sharp rise in CPI was that pork prices grew faster than expected. Because of the restrictions of the African swine fever and the environmental policies of various localities on the pig industry, pig farms kept decreasing, and pork prices rose in August, pushing CPI up 1.08 percentage points over the same period last year. Influenced by the rising pork prices, the prices of chicken, beef and mutton and other alternatives also increased significantly, exceeding the normal seasonal changes in previous years, which together pushed up CPI.
Source of Wholesale Price of Animal Products in March-September of this year: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas
What is the future price situation?
Rising pork and other food prices will not significantly increase inflationary pressures. At present, Chinas price situation is quite special. On the one hand, food prices are rising, while non-food prices are declining. The consumption of non-food also accounts for a high proportion in the consumption of the Chinese people, so overall inflation pressure is not very high. Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, said to Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude clients.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in non-food sectors, transportation and communications prices have fallen by 2.3% year-on-year. Since this year, telecom operators have launched new measures to speed up and reduce fees, bringing benefits to consumers. From January to August this year, the price of telecommunications services fell by 1.1% year-on-year. In addition, gasoline and diesel prices fell by 1.1% and 1.2% respectively from last month.
At the same time, while pork and other prices are rising, the supply and demand of fresh vegetables and fruits have improved, and the price regression has weakened the pulling effect of CPI. According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 0.8% in August compared with the same period last month, which was the first decline after an 18-month consecutive rise, affecting CPI by about 0.02 percentage points. Fresh fruit prices dropped by 15.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and their contribution to CPI decreased (0.65% in July and 0.4% in August). This also eases the pressure on the future price situation.
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On September 11, Vice Minister Yu Kangzhen of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said at the press conference of the new office that on September 10, the General Office of the State Council issued Opinions on Stabilizing Pig Production and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading, emphasizing that the peoples governments of provinces (districts and municipalities) should take overall responsibility for stabilizing pig production and guaranteeing market supply in the region. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas will work closely with the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments to clarify the division of responsibilities, further strengthen the guidance of local work, promote the implementation of the policies and measures specified in the Opinion as soon as possible, achieve results as soon as possible, accelerate the recovery and development of pig production, and ensure the supply of pork market.
Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission also pointed out that in the future, Chinas prices do not have the basis for a comprehensive and substantial rise. Meng Wei, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said that Chinas overall supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is abundant, residentsconsumption is growing steadily, and the overall price level remains basically stable.
Source of this article: responsible editor of Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude: Zhang Xianchao_NN9310