Since March this year, pork prices have continued to rise, causing concern and heated discussion among netizens. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, together with many departments, issued documents and issued 17 policies and measures to support the development of pig production.
Why do pork prices keep rising? What is the future trend? What needs to be done to ensure the long-term stable supply of pork? Peoples Network Forum invites Li Guoxiang, researcher of Rural Development Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to interpret.
The rise in pig prices has led to rational consumption of consumers.
Powerful Forum: What is the main reason for the rising pork prices?
Li Guoxiang: The main reason is the shortage of pork supply due to the reduction of pig production capacity. Now the weather is cooling, pork consumption is relatively strong, such a supply-demand relationship will inevitably lead to higher prices and high levels of operation.
On the one hand, although African swine fever occurred punctuate in China, it had a greater impact. After the occurrence of hog cholera in some main producing areas, pigs could not be adjusted, resulting in high price in non major production areas, but low prices in major production areas, many pig farmers quit, and some areas were killed by live pigs.
In addition, pig prices have been sluggish in previous years, resulting in low enthusiasm for pig farmers. Many local pig factories have been shut down in the implementation of environmental protection policies.
Powerful Forum: Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are imminent. In the short term, can pork supply meet market demand?
Li Guoxiang: There must be no problem with the market supply of pork. But because of the high price, rational consumers will choose other meat to replace it. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day coming, the fishing ban in many places has ended, and the supply of aquatic products will increase substantially. The government is also increasing sales of meat reserves. Pork must be eaten, but on the whole, it must be eaten less than before.
Increasing imports has limited impact on alleviating domestic pork shortage
Forum of Powerful Countries: Are domestic pork prices affected by Sino-US economic and trade frictions? Can the shortage of pork supply be solved by import?
Li Guoxiang: Sino-US economic and trade friction is not the main factor affecting pork prices. Although the United States is one of the major importers of pork, the EU is the largest importer, such as Germany, Spain, Denmark and so on.
Now imports from Brazil and other countries are also rising. We are actively exploring the market and increasing the sources of pork supply.
Looking at this years data, Chinas pork imports have increased substantially so far. However, the proportion of imports in the whole pork market supply in China is still relatively small, and our pork mainly depends on domestic supply.
In addition, Chinese consumers tend to eat fresh pork slaughtered recently, and are not accustomed to buying frozen meat for a long time. The impact of imported pork may be more reflected in processed meat products such as ham, with little impact. Pork imports will ease domestic supply constraints, but very limited.
FORUM OF STRENGTH COUNTRIES: How can local governments balance pollution control and aquaculture development in the process of implementing agricultural environmental protection policies?
Li Guoxiang: The most important thing for environmental protection is not to shut down, but to standardize the utilization of resources. Agricultural production must balance production, ecology and life. The combination of agriculture and animal husbandry is beneficial to the local ecological environment.
Pig wastes do pollute the environment when they are not used, but recycling agriculture can be formed after they are used. The use of waste as organic fertilizer can reduce the use of chemical fertilizer, and the corresponding pollution to water will also be reduced. It is a very good ecological cycle.
The most important thing is to have comprehensive coordination, not absolutization, and to consider how to use scientific and technological means, make good use of support policies and make good planning. If the market power is insufficient, the government will solve the problem by making good use of resources.
Improving the Risk Resistance Ability of Pig Industry Needs to Develop the Integration of Production and Marketing
Powerful Forum: What are consumersexpectations about the trend of pork prices?
Li Guoxiang: due to the lack of investor confidence and the uncertainty of African swine plague, the high price fluctuation of pork prices will continue for a period of time, and consumers should be treated rationally.
At present, many departments have issued support policies. On the one hand, they should find ways to solve the problem of high pork prices from the aspects of pork production and industrial development, not only to suppress pork prices in the short term, but also to boost farmersconfidence and vigorously improve pig production.
We see that many of the policies and measures introduced this time will continue until December 31, 2020, which is a very good signal for investors and breeders.
Li Guoxiang: The lag of pork market is obvious because of the price adjustment. When the price is high, people try their best to support it. When the price is high, the price falls again. After the loss, people do not support it. The fluctuation caused by it is difficult to solve.
At the same time, the regulation of pork is different from that of grain. It is impossible to control the market entirely by the governments large reserves.
From foreign experience, some countries adopt large-scale pig production, develop large-scale pig-raising enterprises, or set up slaughter groups jointly by enterprises and pig farmers. The industrial chain is relatively stable. Production, supply and marketing are basically one, and the market needs as much as it needs, so as to avoid relying entirely on the spontaneous regulation of the market.
At present, we should encourage pig farmers to eliminate their concerns and develop pig production. In the long run, after the elimination of classical swine fever in Africa, the future industry still needs to do something about the integration of production and marketing in order to sell and fix production.
Ultimately, through the close relationship between production and marketing, all links of the industrial chain form a community of interests to determine the scale of breeding and production according to consumer needs. Only by maintaining an environment where sales are slightly greater than consumption can pork prices remain stable for a long time.
Source: Guo Ping_B7442, Responsible Editor of Peoples Network