According to First Finance, statistics show that since Trump was elected in 2016, at least 10 tweets have been published every day on average. From 2018 to now, Trump has published about 4000 original tweets in the stock market trading time, of which 146 times triggered certain market fluctuations.
JPMorgan Chase said in its report that most of Trumps tweets were published from 12 noon to around 2 p.m., with the peak at 1 p.m., about three times the number of other tweets. Trumps 3 a.m. tweets are also more common than his 3 p.m. tweets, which may be a problem for the U.S. interest rate market. J.P. Morgan Chase reported that Trump slept from 5 a.m. to 10 a.m., when his Twitter activity stalled.
Financial markets are on pins and needles for the Internet addiction president.
According to the banks research, the number of tweets that Trump has had a great impact on the market has increased dramatically in the past month, including China, Billion, Products, Democrats, Great and other key words, which may affect the price of U.S. Treasury bonds and extend to a series of assets such as a single stock to macro products.
The author of the JPMorgan Chase report wrote: This makes sense because most of the Presidents tweets are focused on the Federal Reserve. It is widely believed that trade tensions first have an impact on recent economic performance, as well as the Federal Reserves response to these developments.
Photo Source: Screenshot of JPMorgan Chase Report
JPMorgan Chase found that the Volfefefe index can be used to explain a small part of the implied interest rate volatility of two-year and five-year Treasury bonds that can be measured, namely interest rate derivatives. It also emphasizes that the two-year and five-year interest rates are more affected by Trump Twitter than by 10-year bonds.
According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch report, when Trump sends a lot of tweets, U.S. stocks usually fall, or even have a positive relationship, that is, the more tweets they have, the worse the performance of U.S. stocks.
Savita Subramanian, chief securities analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, pointed out in the report: Since 2016, when Trumps one-day push exceeds 35, the stock market returns are - 9 basis points; when the push is less than 5, the stock market returns can reach + 5 basis points.
The alternative index is more joyful
To the outside world, it seems funny to put forward an index specifically for Trumps Twitter, but in fact, as President of the United States, Trumps Twitter has a considerable influence, even no less than some, because of the influence of media opinion on the market and the superimposition of the rapid dissemination capability of the contemporary mobile Internet. Famous financial and economic media.
The hemline index was proposed by George Taylor, an American economist, in 1926. He believes that the better the economy, the shorter the womens skirts, and the worse the economy, the opposite. This is because girls need to wear long skirts to cover up cheap stockings when the economy is poor. This is similar to the mustard tuber index, which also judges the economic situation through cheap commodities.
Photo Source: Visual China
The lipstick index was proposed by Leonardo Lauder, the former president of Estee Lauder Group. By analyzing Estee Lauders actual revenue figures, it found that lipstick sales were in a negative trend during the recession. According to data released by financial education website InVestopedia, lipstick sales doubled during the recession following the September 11 terrorist attacks. In the United States, lipstick as a cheap unnecessary thing can play a comforting role for consumers when the economy is depressed, so lipstick sales generally rise in the economic downturn.
The skyscraper index was first proposed by Andrew Lawrence, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities in Hong Kong in 1999, because he found that recessions or stock market depressions often occurred around the completion of new buildings. Loose government policies and optimistic attitudes towards the economy often encourage the construction of large-scale projects. However, when the bubble caused by over investment and speculative psychology is about to jeopardize the economy, the policy will also turn to austerity to cope with the crisis, making the completion of skyscrapers the precursor of policy and economic transformation. This astonishing discovery is known as the Centennial Pathological Linkage: Buildings built, recession. Therefore, the Skyscraper Index is also known as the Lawrence Curse.
In addition, the Economist magazine launched the Big Mac Index in September 1986 to measure whether the exchange rates of the two currencies are theoretically reasonable. Because McDonalds Big Mac is available all over the world, this index can easily and relatively accurately reflect the actual purchasing power of local currencies.