Aug. 40 New Housing Sales Ring Decreased 9percent. It is expected that the price reduction and promotion will increase.

category:Finance
 Aug. 40 New Housing Sales Ring Decreased 9percent. It is expected that the price reduction and promotion will increase.


According to the report, in August 2019, the turnover area of newly built commercial housing in 40 typical cities fell by 9% annually and 3% year-on-year.

According to the report, the average growth rate in August was 4.5% on a year-on-year basis, based on the moving average data in the past six months, because the monthly data may be abnormal. After reaching the peak of this cycle in September 2015, the curve began to decline. During March-April 2016, the curve rebounded briefly, and then continued to decline until about October 2017 to reach the low of this cycle. After November 2017, the curve began to oscillate upward, and began to oscillate downward in December 2018. It is still in the process of oscillation downward.

According to the report, from the historical trend of turnover, after the end of the fourth quarter of 2018, the volume of new houses in 40 cities hit a 48-month low since March 2015 in February 2019. In March and April, some cities increased their sales volume, with Xiaoyangchun appearing in the real estate market. The turnover of new houses in 40 cities increased slightly year-on-year, while that in May decreased slightly. In June, some housing enterprises sprinted half-yearly performance, pushing plate volume increased, 40 City turnover rings increased slightly, and in July and August, the rings declined continuously. It is expected that the national property market will continue to cool down in the next few months.

Data Sources: Official Real Estate Information Network, CRIC and Yiju Research Institute

Transaction volume of three types of cities declined annually

According to the report, in August 2019, the turnover area of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities decreased by 19% annually and 16% year-on-year. At present, the absolute value of the turnover area is at the average level since 2014. The first-tier cities in this round of real estate market started ahead of other cities, and began to adjust ahead of other cities. Judging from the trend of turnover this year and the year-on-year growth, the first-tier citiesturnover has stabilized and rebounded. However, since June, the volume of first-tier cities has been declining month by month. Under the current situation of strict regulation of the real estate market, although the volume has increased compared with the second half of 2017 and 2018, it still has a long way to go compared with the high levels in 2015 and 2016.

According to the report, the turnover area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 second-tier cities decreased by 10% annually and increased by 6% year-on-year. Among them, the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in eight second-tier cities in eastern China decreased by 18% annually and increased by 21% year-on-year; the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in four second-tier cities in central China decreased by 20% annually and increased by 2% year-on-year; the turnover area of new commercial residential buildings in six second-tier cities in other regions (northeast and Western regions) increased by 10% annually and decreased by 1% year-on-year. %.

Specifically, in the second-tier cities in the east, the turnover ratio declined in August. In the first eight months of 2019, the monthly average turnover is slightly higher than the monthly average level since the cooling of the fourth quarter of 2016, but there is still a big gap compared with the peak in the second and third quarters of 2016. From the current trend, whether the low stabilization remains to be further observed.

In the second-tier cities in the central region, the turnover in August declined by a larger margin than that in other cities. From the year-on-year growth curve, December 2018 began to decline, although the volume of June and July this year has increased, August volume returned to May level, it is difficult to say that this stabilization, is expected to decline in the next few months of this year.

In other second-tier cities, the August trading ring increased slightly, after the previous eight-month downward growth curve, the July and August decline narrowed slightly. With the upgrading of the purchase restriction policy in Xian, it is expected that in the next few months of this year, the transactions of other second-tier cities will further decline.

The report shows that the turnover area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 18 third-and fourth-tier cities decreased by 4% annually and 17% year-on-year. Among them, the new commercial residential area of 7 cities (limited purchase or loan) with stricter regulation increased by 4% annually and decreased by 22% year-on-year, while that of 11 cities with unregulated or weak regulation (restricted sale) decreased by 9% annually and 13% year-on-year.

Specifically, the third and fourth-tier cities with stricter regulation in this round increased slightly in August, but declined more than in the previous year. In the second half of 2018, the volume of Wuxi, Zhongshan and other cities increased considerably, possibly due to the relaxation of pre-sale certificates and the existence of some centralized replenishment phenomena, which led to the rapid growth of the transaction area of the three-and four-tier cities under strict control in this round. Volume returned to a low level in the first quarter of 2019. Although monthly average volume increased in the second quarter, it was still lower than that in the second half of 2018. Volume returned to March level in July and August.

In this round of weakly regulated or unregulated third-and fourth-tier cities, the August turnover cycle decreased slightly compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of turnover trend, it gradually declined after peaking in May 2018, and the cooling trend was obvious in the March and Fourth Quarters of 2018. From the year-on-year growth curve, the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed for seven consecutive months since November 2018, entered a negative range in February, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed slightly in the past three months.

The report further shows that the first-tier cities have rebounded steadily in the first half of the year due to two consecutive years of sluggish turnover, but the volume has declined in the past two months, which is difficult to continue to grow under the current situation of strict regulation and control of the real estate market; the second-tier cities in the eastern part of Suzhou have upgraded their regulation and control policies twice this year, Nanjing and Hangzhou. In recent two months, the interest rates of housing loans in Ningbo, Ningbo and other cities have been rising continuously, and it is expected that they will continue to cool down in the future. Trading volume of second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities in other regions is facing a greater risk of decline.

Data Sources: Official Real Estate Information Network, CRIC and Yiju Research Institute

According to the report, from January to August 2019, the total turnover area of 40 cities increased by 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with January to July.

From the historical trend, in February 2017, the accumulated turnover area of 40 cities entered a negative range at the beginning of the year, then the decline continued to expand, and stabilized at - 22% at the end of the year. This shows that the market has cooled down in 2017, mainly due to the introduction or upgrade of the classified regulation, City-based policy of the real estate market regulation policy, and the tightening of the credit policy represented by the rising interest rate of individual mortgage loans also effectively cracked down on investment speculation demand.

In 2018, the cumulative turnover area of 40 cities rebounded from a year-on-year growth curve, which is mainly due to the growth of the transaction area of the third and fourth-tier cities, especially those that are not regulated or weakly regulated.

According to the report, compared with the cumulative year-on-year data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the trend of the two curves is similar, and the fluctuation of the 40-city curve is greater. This is mainly due to the plate rotation effect, the first and second-tier typical cities are more sensitive to macro-policies. It is anticipated that the annual decline in the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in China from January to August 2019 will still be a small shock near 0.

Data Sources: Official Real Estate Information Network, CRIC, National Statistical Bureau and Yiju Research Institute

Regionally, from January to August 2019, the first-tier cities increased by 27% year-on-year, the second-tier cities increased by 3% year-on-year, and the third and fourth-tier cities decreased by 9% year-on-year.

Specifically, the second-tier cities in the East increased 9% year-on-year, the second-tier cities in the middle increased 13% year-on-year, the other second-tier cities decreased 8% year-on-year, the third-tier and fourth-tier cities under control increased 1% year-on-year, and the third-tier and fourth-tier cities without regulation or weak regulation decreased 14% year-on-year.

Judging from the historical trend of the year-on-year growth of the accumulated transaction area at the beginning of each region, in March 2016, the first-tier cities took the lead in the year-on-year growth curve and entered the negative range in 2017. Since then, they have been consolidating at a low level. In March 2018, the cumulative decline rate of the first-tier cities began to narrow, and in January 2019, the year-on-year growth rate began to increase. Increased gradually, since May, the growth rate gradually declined.

The cumulative year-on-year curve of second-tier cities declined in October 2016, and entered a negative range in 2017. The decline narrowed in the first half of 2018, and returned to positive growth in the second half of 2018. In the first two months of 2019, the year-on-year decline declined sharply. Since March, the year-on-year decline narrowed, and in July, it returned to positive growth.

The cumulative year-on-year curve of the third and fourth-tier cities declined in November 2016, entered the negative range in 2017 and returned to the positive range in 2018, and the growth rate gradually expanded. In the first two months of 2019, the year-on-year decline declined sharply. Since March, the year-on-year decline has narrowed, and it is still the largest one among the three types of cities.

Data Sources: Official Real Estate Information Network, CRIC and Yiju Research Institute

It is expected that the turnover of Jinjiuyin 104 will not increase significantly.

Taking these circumstances into account, in the next few months, some housing enterprises will increase their efforts to push the market due to the shortage of funds, and discount promotions will also increase. The housing market expectations have changed. Although the number of real estate companies pushing the market may increase substantially, the volume of transactions is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of sub-urban categories, the first-tier cities have steadily rebounded due to two consecutive years of sluggish turnover, but it is difficult to sustain growth; the second-tier cities in eastern and central regions may continue to cool down, while the second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities in other regions face a greater risk of decline.

Note:

Forty typical cities are:

Four first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Eighteen second-tier cities: Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou, Nanning, Chengdu, Nanchang, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Xian, Xiamen, Lanzhou, Hefei and Ningbo; the eastern second-tier cities are Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo and Xiamen; the central second-tier cities are Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo and Xiamen. City: Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanchang; other (western and northeastern) second-tier cities are: Nanning, Lanzhou, Changchun, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xian.

Eighteen third-and fourth-tier cities: Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang, Wuxi, Xiangyang, Quanzhou, Huaian, Jinhua, Shantou, Zhaoqing, Huizhou, Yantai, Zhoushan, Shaoguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Xuzhou. Among them, 11 weak or uncontrolled cities in Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wuxi, Quanzhou, Huaian, Zhuhai and Zhongshan are Wenzhou, Yueyang, Xiangyang, Jinhua, Shantou, Zhaoqing, Huizhou, Yantai, Zhoushan and Shaoguan.

Source of this article: Sino-Singapore Editor-in-Charge of Longitudinal and Weft: Yang Bin_NF4368