Customs data show that China imported 8.306 million tons of Indonesian bauxite from January to July 2019, accounting for 12.59% of total imports in 2019, an increase of 125.4% over the same period last year. Indonesia is the third largest source of bauxite imports in China. The ban on bauxite exports in Indonesia will have a certain impact on the price of bauxite in China.
Huachuang Securities believes that the marginal game among the reduction speed of alumina production, the new expansion and re-production speed of electrolytic aluminium enterprises and the depot speed in the peak season of electrolytic aluminium constitutes the main logic of profit recovery for electrolytic aluminium enterprises. Based on the current excess pattern of alumina, the continuing interference at the supply side of electrolytic aluminium and the concentration of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the profits of electrolytic aluminium enterprises will still be well maintained in the third and fourth quarters, and the profit recovery logic of related listed companies will be further strengthened when the peak consumption season comes in September. Recommended Subjects: China Aluminum Industry, Shenhuo Stock.
Minsheng Securities believes that with the improvement of supply and demand structure, aluminium enterprises are facing profit recovery: considering the impact of capacity reduction, net annual capacity growth of electrolytic aluminium is limited. There is no accumulation in the off-season. With the start of the construction season in September, the demand side is expected to improve marginally and inventory is expected to continue to decline. The price of alumina dropped significantly in the third quarter (3100 yuan/ton to 2450-2500 yuan/ton), and the profit end of downstream aluminium enterprises was repaired. Aluminum prices are generally optimistic, while the profit recovery of aluminium enterprises, it is suggested that attention should be paid to Shenhuo shares, China Aluminum Industry and so on.
Societe Generale Securities believes that demand for electrolytic aluminium is expected to resume growth in the second half of the year with the support of housing completion. In the medium and long term, under the pressure of strict capacity ceiling, neutral supply gap is expected to appear in the next three years. In the long run, the large-scale emergence of new applications can promote aluminium consumption to a new level. Energy saving and consumption reduction is the only way. The industry will enter an orderly development track, leading companies enjoy high-quality development of the industry. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to it.
Source: First Financial Responsibility Editor: Yang Bin_NF4368