Pig enterprises Four Heavenly Kings pattern has been loose horse race enclosure, who can win?

 Pig enterprises Four Heavenly Kings pattern has been loose horse race enclosure, who can win?

Four Heavenly Kings will be rewritten. Wens and New Hope are expected to take the lead.

300498.SZ, the largest pig company in the country, achieved good overall profit in the first half of this year, achieving a profit of 30 billion 435 million yuan, an increase of 20.22% over the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1 billion 383 million yuan, an increase of 50.76% over the same period last year, while sales of meat and meat increased by 25.32%, but the first half of the year. Wens pig-raising business was still in a small loss in 1997.

Fortunately, the number of live pigs in the company is growing steadily. In the first half of the year, 11.774 million commercial pork pigs were sold, up 13.69% year-on-year, and the annual sales target was about 52.81% (the annual sales target is based on the sales volume in 2018). Commercial pork farming and marketing is one of Wens main businesses. The sales revenue of pork products accounts for more than 60%, but Wens advantage is multi-head layout + whole industry chain layout. The poultry business has achieved good growth in the first half of the year, hedging the risk of pig loss.

Another new business hope (000876.SZ), which takes into account the diversification of pig and poultry industry and the layout of the whole industry chain, achieved 35 billion 294 million yuan in revenue in the first half, an increase of 11.54% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 1 billion 562 million yuan, an increase of 84.61% over the same period last year. A total of 134.35 million pigs, piglets and fattening pigs were sold, an increase of 102.2 million pigs, an increase of 8.33%; pig-raising revenue reached 1.923 billion yuan, an increase of 27.01%; gross profit reached 366 million yuan, an increase of 225.08%. Since 2015, the companys pig-raising business has developed rapidly. In 2018, the pig sales exceeded 2.55 million. In the first half of the year, the sales of commercial chickens and ducks raised by New Hope and entrusted by New Hope also exceeded 200 million. The contribution of livestock and poultry farming to the companys overall revenue and profits has been constantly increasing. With the layout in the fields of feed, dairy industry and aquaculture processing, the same steady new hope has also achieved counter-trend growth.

In the first half of the year, the company has achieved more than 1.8 million piglets and fattening pigs by putting piglets into production and purchasing. In this boom of pig production expansion, New Hope plans to invest 3.748 billion yuan to build 2.5 million pig farming projects in Lanzhou, 582 million yuan to invest 393 million yuan to build 670,000 and 500,000 pig farming projects in Xinji and Neiqiu, Hebei, respectively, and 244 million yuan to build 7500 pig farms in Gaotang, Shandong.

By the end of the first half of 2019, New Hope has realized and reserved more than 40 million head of production capacity in the whole country. It has put into operation 4.8 million head of production capacity and over 7 million head of production capacity under construction. The balance of fixed assets and construction projects of the company has increased by 17.90% compared with the end of last year. In addition, the project capacity of land contract or reserve has exceeded 30 million head.

In the first half of the year, the company realized 7.16 billion yuan of revenue, an increase of 29.87% compared with the previous year; the net loss attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 156 million yuan, an increase of 97.95% compared with the previous year; the net loss attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 202 million yuan, an increase of 98.8% over the previous year, except for recurrent gains and losses. 32%. In the first half of the year, 5 million 815 thousand pigs were sold, including 5 million 218 thousand and 200 pigs, 592 thousand and 600 piglets and 4 thousand and 200 pigs. The single business structure of the pure pig has made the animal farm vulnerable to the impact of the African swine plague.

In this round of expansion, Muyuan shares have made great strides. As early as December last year, Muyuan shares issued a plan to raise no more than 5 billion yuan, of which 3.5 billion yuan was used to expand the scale of pig farming. The company will add 4.75 million live pigs after the expansion project has reached delivery. On August 13, Muyuan issued another announcement that it would invest 120 million yuan to set up subsidiaries in six well-known breeding counties, such as Yian County and Kangping County.

Zhengbang Science and Technology (002157.SZ) produced 309.36 million live pigs in the first half of the year, an increase of 24.65% over the same period last year. The company recorded a net loss of 275 million yuan, an increase of 43.98% over the same period last year. The biggest decline in net profit was Tianbang Share (0021.24.SZ), which produced 151.74 million live pigs in the first half of the year, an increase of 69% over the same period last year, and realized a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan. It increased 102% year-on-year, but its net loss reached 367 million yuan, of which 300 million yuan occurred in the first quarter, down 555.9% year-on-year.

The piggery industry has been regarded as the four leading Wenmu Zhengtian. Apart from the fact that Wens shares hedged the loss of piggery business due to the diversified layout and the whole industrial chain model, and achieved a substantial increase in net profit, the other three companies all performed very poorly. The single layout structure of the breeding industry is the biggest reason, mainly covering the breeding industry. And feed also causes the layout of the industrial chain to be too short, resulting in its inadequate ability to resist and transfer risks when the pig breeding business is impacted. According to Feng Yonghuis analysis, there is a single layout of the aquaculture structure, only the layout of pig farming, the aquaculture industry chain is too short, only one or two links of the layout of enterprises, the risk of market shocks is greater.

Industry concentration is expected to increase

China agriculture outlook report (2019-2028) shows that pork prices are rising cycle in the second half of 2019. Under the price stimulus, the three yuan sow patch will increase in the second half of the year, which is conducive to capacity recovery. However, due to the decline of sow stock, environmental protection policy and epidemic risk, the capacity recovery rate will be relatively slow. Slow. In the first half of 2020, the price of hog will reach the high point of the current cycle of rising, and the price will gradually fall from high level in the second half of 2020. It is expected to enter a new round of price fall after 2021, but the price of pork will remain at a high level in the next 3 years. Tianfeng Securities also said that in the next 2 to 3 years, it will be a period of rapid expansion of the piggery sector profit cycle superimposed on the listing of Listed Companies in the head, and a period of rising volume and profit in the wavelength period.

According to the current market price of live pigs, the profit of farming households has been close to a record high of 1500 yuan. It is easy to say that whoever has more pigs in the later period can earn more, but the factors of different production capacity, industrial chain layout, capital chain strength (debt level), breeding sow stock, breeding and anti risk technology reserve are not only decided. Who set the list of pig enterprises can have more pigs and decide who will win more.

Under the reversal of pig cycle, almost all the listed pig companies are watching closely the progress of the African swine fever vaccine, accelerating the horse race enclosure, expanding the scale of pig farming, and preparing for the coming spring tide. At present, 9 of the 18 listed companies in A share which involve pig business have invested in projects related to pig farming this year. In order to enclose land for horse racing and expand production, first of all, it is necessary to have sufficient funds or strong financing capacity.

The leading Wens stock market is large in scale, but its asset-liability ratio is low, and its stock price fluctuates little. From its debt ratio of 34.63%, we can see that Wen has sufficient financing capacity. This is not only an important factor for its stock price stability, but also the bottom gas for Wens expansion of pig breeding capacity.

New Hope has a comprehensive credit line of more than 49 billion yuan for many financial institutions worldwide. At present, the proportion of credit is only 28%, and the average cost of financing in the first half of the year is less than 3.7%. In addition, the company launched the convertible bond project in the first half of the year, and the follow-up will be more powerful to support the fund demand for the development of pig industry.

Xin Wufeng (600975.SH), as a state-owned listed company, has a debt-to-asset ratio of less than 30%. In 2019, Xin Wufeng received a total of 1.150 billion yuan of credit from many banks. It can also obtain the funds needed for development through indirect financing.

There are also many enterprises with high debt ratio and high financing pressure. In the first half of the year, the asset-liability ratio of Muyuan shares was 57.01%, which was 2.94% higher than that at the end of last year; the asset-liability ratio of Zhengbang science and technology assets was 67.48%, which was 0.54 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year; and by the end of March 2019, the asset-liability ratio of Tianbang shares was 66.64%. The asset-liability ratio of the three enterprises is higher than 50%. Considering the current situation of huge losses, the burden of piggery business will be heavier in the second half of the year, which will affect the progress of production expansion to a certain extent.

The impact of the epidemic of swine fever in Africa is still ongoing. At present, the profits and risks of pig farming are equally high. Ordinary enterprises have only one chance. Because of the heavy losses of swine fever, the broken capital chain of farms and small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to borrow money, and government subsidies are not enough to fly again. Only listed companies have multiple trial-and-error opportunities, epidemic prevention ability and comprehensive risk resistance are better than ordinary retail dependents. Superposition of state subsidies and tax support can expand production and seize market share of retail dependents. African swine fever has given unprecedented opportunities and dividends to the first tier listed pig enterprises. The general competitors in the industry have no ability to fight.

Generally speaking, in leading enterprises, whether it is the scale of aquaculture layout, the degree of diversification of aquaculture categories, the link of industrial chain layout, or the technology, capital and talent reserve, Wens shares and new hope undoubtedly have strong risk-resistance ability and strong development strength, as well as local leading enterprises such as Xin Wufeng. Good financing ability and government support. Muyuan shares, Zhengbang science and technology, Tianbang shares need to shoulder more burdens to turn losses into profits. The pattern of the four leading pigs in the past is expected to be reshuffled.

Feng Yonghui said that at present, a lot of listed pig enterprises have got the experimental vaccine, and the effect is good in the pig farm experiment. The marketing of the African swine fever vaccine will be an important node in the industry. The profit of the single head pig in the second half of the year is expected to reach 2000 yuan. Small aquaculture enterprises are blocking the door. Listed aquaculture enterprises with integrated industrial chain have huge advantages.

Editor in charge

Source: First Financial Responsibility Editor: Guo Chenqi_NBJ9931