At present, although there is no clear information in the industry, what specific policies the country will adopt to promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry, since the second half of this year, there has been increasing calls for relaxation or cancellation of purchase restrictions at the policy level. On August 27, the General Office of the State Council issued Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption (hereinafter referred to as Opinions). It was proposed that the areas where car purchase restrictions were implemented should explore specific measures to gradually relax or cancel the purchase restrictions in light of the actual situation. Earlier on June 6, in the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020), issued jointly by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce, it was also proposed that new regulations on car purchase restrictions should be strictly prohibited everywhere. At the same time, it was suggested that the government should impose restrictions on car purchase in places where restrictions had been implemented. We should speed up the shift from limited purchase to guided use, set up congestion areas reasonably according to the congestion situation, study and explore the policy of classified use of vehicles inside and outside congestion areas, and in principle do not restrict purchase outside congestion areas.
On the second day of the regular announcement by the Ministry of Commerce, automotive stocks rose all over the board. By the end of the day, Yutong Bus and China Heavy Truck had risen by more than 4%. Shanghai Automobile Group, Weichai Power Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group all led the market. Although the capital market has sprouted, but specific to the market level, the car companies for the third quarter of the car market is still difficult to say optimistic.
Vehicle Market Still Negative Growth
Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Group, said at the first provisional shareholdersmeeting in 2019 held by SAIC last month that after July 1, the prices of Guoliu products and new energy products need to be gradually restored, and consumers mindset of holding money is intensified. Therefore, the market trend in the second half of the year is still not optimistic, especially in July and August. In the off-season of the car market, the growth rate is expected to remain negative in the third quarter.
In August, SAIC Groups sales decline has narrowed compared with last month, falling by about 8% year-on-year, and the sales decline in the previous August also narrowed to 14.81% from 15.73% in July. Judging from the situation of the enterprises under the group, the sales volume of SAIC Chase increased by more than 40% in August, which led to the change of the cumulative sales volume from negative to positive in August, an increase of 4.44% over the same period of last year. In addition to SAIC GM, the other passenger car companies, including SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM Wuling and SAIC passenger car sales in August before the cumulative decline has narrowed.
Similar to SAIC, according to the latest data released by Geely Automobile, total sales of Geely automobiles rebounded to 100,000 in August, down 19% from the previous year, but the decline was narrower than the 24% in July.
Some of the companies that did well in the first half of the year came under market pressure in the second half. Toyotas overall sales in China in August were 129,200, down 3.8% from a year earlier, ending 18 months of sustained growth. BYDs new car sales in August were only 36,000, down 13.95% from a year earlier. This is the second decline in BYDs monthly sales since the sharp decline in state subsidies for new energy vehicles.
The impact of policy on the market is very obvious. Song Jun, general manager of Geely Brand Sales Company, told reporters that in the middle of this year, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have increased the purchase index of traditional fuel vehicles. Although the increase of the index is not very high, it has a certain impact on pure tram consumption. In view of this trend, Geely is more diversified in new energy, from light mixing, plug-in mixing to pure electric, multi-pronged, from different paths to meet different market segments. At Chengdu Auto Show, Geely and Volvo jointly built the neck brand and launched two PHEV models to cope with the market demand changes after subsidies declined.
Despite the negative growth of new energy vehicles in July, the new energy vehicles are still the only market segment with double-digit growth in the expectation of the China Automobile Industry Association for this years automobile market. According to its forecast, new energy vehicles are expected to sell about 1.5 million vehicles this year, up 19.4% year-on-year, but down 100,000 from the forecast data at the beginning of the year.
Fourth Quarter Trend of Car Market
Song Jun said that although the market fluctuation has its regularity, on the whole, Chinas car market still has the momentum of growth, especially the benefits of consumer upgrading for mainstream brands. So for Geely, the focus is still on the mainstream consumer trends, and through the addition of new cars and other aspects of adjustment, efforts to improve the action.
With the introduction of new cars in the second half of the year, Geelys sales are expected to enter the upward channel. From the data point of view, in the current overall sales of Geely vehicles, the biggest contribution is still the SUV Boyue. In 2018, Geely Boyues cumulative sales ranked fourth in the SUV market, with annual sales of 242,000 vehicles, with a gap of only 43,000 vehicles from the mass market. In the first August of this year, Boyues cumulative sales reached 143,000 vehicles, but its ranking in the market declined. Geely hopes to help the Boyue family return to its previous status by building it. Boyue Pro+2020 version was launched at Chengdu Auto Show to form a high-low combination and expand the market position.
In Chen Hongs view, With the gradual landing and development of the national stable growth policy, it is expected that the transmission effect of the policy on the real economy will gradually appear. The economic benefits of enterprises will be improved, the income and confidence of employees will be improved, and the support for automobile consumption will be enhanced. This year, the VAT tax rate will be lowered, the six products will be switched over and the price will be completed. As the system gradually stabilizes, the consumers wait-and-see mood will be significantly alleviated, and the negative growth factors in the same period last year will be superimposed. Judging comprehensively, the growth rate of passenger car market is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter.
Yu Jingmin, deputy general manager of SAIC Passenger Vehicle Company, also expressed in an interview with reporters two reasons why the market is still optimistic in the second half of this year: first, consumption upgrading; second, the survival of the fittest in the market downturn is a big opportunity for enterprises with perfect products and services.
In July this year, the China Automobile Industry Association (CAI) predicted that the total automobile sales in 2019 would be 26.68 million vehicles, down 5% from the same period last year. Among them, passenger cars are expected to sell 22.44 million vehicles, down 5.4% from the same period last year. Commercial vehicles are expected to sell 4.24 million vehicles, down about 3% from the same period last year.
Chen Shihua, Assistant Secretary-General of China Automobile Industry Association, said earlier that if the relevant policies of local governments to promote automobile consumption can be implemented in the second half of the year, the year-end sales will still be equal to 2018, reaching 28 million vehicles.
Source: First Financial Responsibility Editor: Guo Chenqi_NBJ9931