A shares have rebounded for a month to get off? Funds said they would continue to be bullish

category:Finance
 A shares have rebounded for a month to get off? Funds said they would continue to be bullish


Lowering the benchmark sends a strong signal that optimism in the stock market is expected to continue

On September 6, the Peoples Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) on September 16. Relevant central bank officials said that the reduction released about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds, including a comprehensive reduction released about 800 billion yuan, directional reduction released about 100 billion yuan.

In the view of Wang Xianbiao, a researcher of Nord Fund, the difference between the reduction and previous reduction is that the reduction since 2018 is more of a hedging nature or directional regulation, such as the previous tax-paying pressure during the tax-hedging period or directional encouragement of banks to increase credit to SMEs. However, the reduction was implemented in September, when the scale of tax payment was small, and the reduction measures were announced on the second day after the end of the regular session of the State Council. The reduction met the expectations but exceeded the expectations. It embodied the strengthening of counter-cyclical regulation and control, and the signal significance was more obvious.

Yao Yudong, deputy general manager and chief economist of Dacheng Fund, judged that the time window of the reduction extended to November, which is probably the last reduction operation of this year. However, because this reduction does not involve MLF operation arrangements and leaves a doubt on whether the central bank will reduce the MLF interest rate, the central bank needs to pay close attention to September 9 and September 17 in the future. For MLF sequels.

The CEF believes that this comprehensive and directional reduction has released abundant liquidity for the entire capital market and improved investorsexpectations of the economic outlook. With the improvement of short-term market liquidity, the micro-capital structure of the market will change trendily. The counter-cyclical regulation of macro-control is constantly strengthened, and the monetary transmission mechanism is further dredged, which will gradually realize the Self-Liquidation of the industry. In the future, we will constantly see the emergence of turning points in the industry boom.

Huaxia Fund believes that the current market easing expectations have been restarted, and the optimism of the market is expected to continue in the short term.

Public offerings are still bullish in the near future, and collectively favor technology stocks

For the future market, Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst of Boshi Fund, said that external uncertainty has decreased significantly, domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies tend to increase, after the reduction, other policy reserves are expected to be introduced, policy expectations or further boost market sentiment.

Xinhua Fund said it was bullish on the pre-National Day market.

1. In September, frictions weaken the suppression of the market in a short period of time.

2. The direction of liquidity easing remains unchanged, and the Fed, ECB and domestic MLF have operational expectations in September.

3. Steady growth measures have been gradually launched in recent years, and we can still look forward to the future.

The National Life Security Fund is also optimistic about the future market. It believes that September is the best rebound window period. Whether the follow-up will continue strongly still needs new catalysts, but at present, this trend is still continuing. Even risk preference may be more positive improvement, the probability of market overshoot is not low, it is suggested that active allocation, do not get off.

1. The signal of global easing has begun to confirm internally that the central banks intention to reduce the benchmark is obvious, and the corresponding domestic policy environment will also open a new round of easing. However, at present, the resilience of the policy has not disappeared. Domestic policy is not flood irrigation, but precise drip irrigation. We do not think that it will form a buffalo of continuous capital inflow into the stock market, but the support of the structural market.

2. The mid-term report data are not satisfactory, but the core assets have strong resilience.

3. It is speculated from the policy intention that the macro-data in August are still under pressure. Last weeks export data have shown some signs. The turning point of the fundamentals still needs time. Structural opportunities are not total opportunities.

4. The internationalization of A-share is still continuing. It is also imminent to incorporate the S&P emerging industry index. The trend of foreign capital inflow has been clear and has been strengthened in the near future.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund also said that the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will be held on September 19, if the United States continues to cut interest rates, it will further open the domestic interest rate reduction space.

In the medium and long term, Yang Delong, the former chief economist of the Open Source Fund of Shanghai, claims that A shares are expected to replicate the trend of U.S. stocks over the past 10 years in the next 10 years.

After 40 years of rapid development, Chinas economy has entered the stage of medium-speed and high-quality growth. Although the growth rate may decline to a certain extent, the economic growth rate is increasing, and industry profits are also shifting to leading companies. Under the leadership of high quality stocks represented by Bailongma Stock, that is, Baima Stock + industry leader, A-share market will go out of a strong upward trend. This point can be seen from the past 10 years and 40 years, the trend of U.S. stocks can be seen. Overall, the growth rate of the U.S. economy in the past 10 years is not high, but a group of great U.S. companies such as FANNG, as the leading technology stocks, led the whole U.S. stock market out of the 10-year bull market, A shares in the next 10 years are expected to replicate the trend of U.S. stocks in the past 10 years.

After 40 years of rapid development, Chinas economy has entered the stage of medium-speed and high-quality growth. Although the growth rate may decline to a certain extent, the economic growth rate is increasing, and industry profits are also shifting to leading companies. Under the leadership of high quality stocks represented by Bailongma Stock, that is, Baima Stock + industry leader, A-share market will go out of a strong upward trend. This point can be seen from the past 10 years and 40 years, the trend of U.S. stocks can be seen. Overall, the growth rate of the U.S. economy in the past 10 years is not high, but a group of great U.S. companies such as FANNG, as the leading technology stocks, led the whole U.S. stock market out of the 10-year bull market, A shares in the next 10 years are expected to replicate the trend of U.S. stocks in the past 10 years.

In terms of thematic investment, technology stocks are still very popular. Wei Fengchun, a Boshi fund, said he was relatively bullish on the financial real estate and technology sectors.

Xinhua Fund suggests that large-scale finance and consumption should be allocated as bottom stores, focusing on the new economic leader.

The National Life Security Fund also believes that the potential space of the science and technology sector is relatively larger, and suggests that the allocation should be biased towards growth, with relatively stagnant communications as the first priority, followed by electronics and computers.