Goldman Sachs Strategy: The current market is still in the Four Phases Overlay window to do multi-window continuation
Guosheng Securities Strategy Team believes that the current market is still in the window of four phases overlap: 1) the economy has not yet fallen sharply; 2) policy relaxation has fallen in succession; 3) overseas risks have been mitigated and overseas volatility has gradually recovered; 4) the three major indices (MSCI, FTSE Russell, S&P Dow) have been incorporated simultaneously, and foreign capital inflows have accelerated. Before the above-mentioned conditions have not changed significantly, we should continue to actively grasp the multi-window.
In terms of industry allocation, Guosheng Securities Team believes that all sectors have opportunities to continue to adhere to the united front of core assets for a long time, cherish the opportunity of picking up cheap brought by the Hong Kong stock market callback, take into account the performance-price ratio and grasp the direction of excellence, focusing on the securities business sector.
CITICs strategy: policy easing expectations make it clear that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit its pre-year high
CITIC Securities Strategic Team said that the main line of domestic policy affecting the four major concerns of A shares has improved significantly, becoming the main driver of market breakthrough, and the expectation of domestic policy easing has been clear; in the coming weeks, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Peoples Bank of China are expected to cut interest rates sequentially, and global easing will become clearer; A shares will continue to benefit from it. Foreign capital inflows are concentrated.
Although the inflection point of trade negotiations and corporate profits still needs to be confirmed, the margin has improved. With the four major concerns gradually clear, A shares still have upward momentum from breakthrough to start. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit the previous high in the year.
In terms of industry allocation, CITIC Securities Group believes that it is recommended to continue to use financial and consumer blue chips as the bottom warehouse, focusing on the repair market of low-value variety banks and infrastructure chiefs; in addition, it will continue to focus on sectors where performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year, such as white electricity chiefs, automotive and spare parts, pharmaceutical businesses, etc.
Prosperity Strategy: Grasp the Opportunities of Index Breaking through the Previous High
Societe Generale Securities Strategy Team said that although the current external environment, internal growth transformation and other pressures are still in place, we should not underestimate the periodic disturbance caused by external risks, but the vitality brought to the market by reform measures and policy catalysis should not be ignored, and we should actively seize the opportunity.
It is suggested that investors can gradually be optimistic in the structured market, and the emerging growth is full of flexibility. Liquidity loosening expectations have increased, China and the United States warm wind, National Day 70 years catalytic risk preference has increased, the structural market is gradually expanding. The market is shifting from strategic defense to strategic attack, grasping the opportunity of index breaking through the pre-peak.
In terms of industry allocation, the Societe Generale Securities Team suggests that big innovation + securities firms is the main source of income at this stage. 1) Emerging growth represents the major innovation directions, such as TMT (self-controlled, industrial chain, 5G), high-end manufacturing (new energy vehicles, military industry). 2) Market warming, falling and other catalysts, represented by securities firms in the large financial sector. 3) In the medium and long term, we should focus on high-quality targets and grasp the pricing power of core assets.
Haitong Securities Strategic Team said that the second wave of bull market rise conditions are fundamental and policy-level resonance, earnings and valuation Davis double-click, the current policy confirms that the basic 3Q is expected to rebound after bottoming out. At present, the bull markets second wave of upward prospects are clearer.
At present, the policy is relatively warm and the market continues to rise. In the future, we still need to closely track the volatility of American stocks and the three-quarter earnings data. In the early stage of the second wave of bull market rise, the market may still be repeated. Strategically optimistic, tactically gradual, patient layout.
In terms of industry allocation, Haitong Securities believes that science and technology + securities firms is expected to become the leading industry in this round. Our country has entered the post-industrialization era and the information age. The key industry is the science and technology industry, and the securities dealer provides financing services for the science and technology industry. Therefore, the leading industry in the bull market will be the science and technology + securities dealer in the future.
Anxin Securities Strategy Team said that from the perspective of foreign capital inflows, the allocation value of the A-share market is still recognized, and it is expected that the combination of broad currency and active finance will continue to work. In the future, policies will continue to focus on creating a good market environment and conditions, and all kinds of domestic long-term funds will continue to enter the market. The proportion of equity assets in the allocation of residentsassets is expected to further improve.
Secondly, for the high expectation of short-term index, Anxin Securities believes that it should not be too radical. When the autumn market is not yet cashed out, it can also actively look for opportunities for some high-quality companies with relatively backward early performance. However, as the market is getting better, investors should maintain a reasonable profit expectation in the follow-up. Chasing the rise in restlessness.
In terms of industry allocation, the Anxin Securities Team believes that we should focus on securities dealers, computers, communications, electronics, construction materials, automobiles, etc. The themes suggest that we should focus on self-control, state-owned enterprise reform and so on.
New Age Strategy: The Bull Market may be at a higher level
Investorsconcerns about the high valuation and profitability of some sectors are no longer the focus. The focus is on what is the dominant force of the new trend. The main risk in the future is whether the market is rising faster than the speed of improvement of the dominant force.
In terms of industry sector allocation, the New Age Securities Team suggests that investors actively change their allocation ideas. In terms of plate allocation and individual stock selection, we can do more radical work appropriately. It is suggested to focus on technology and alternative consumption, which will gradually show more and more opportunities, and the policy-sensitive sector may start the game earlier.
Evergreen Strategy: Loose Finance+ Loose Currency Opens up the Space for Stock Index Long Cattle
In the future, the market will enter the fourth stage of weak data, loose policy. In the future, risk premium will continue to decline and market liquidity will improve, which will become the driving force for the market to rise. At present, the market is still in the bottom allocation period. It is suggested that we should continue to be patient in holding positions.
Emperors Strategy: Pay attention to end-of-year style switching and positively layout new beta
Guojun Strategic Securities said that the market had a certain expectation of benchmarking. After the regular session, the market generally recognized that the probability of September would be implemented by general benchmarking and directional benchmarking. Therefore, the expected reduction should not be over-interpreted in the short term, but the market momentum also depends on the advance volume and time rhythm of the next over-expectation - special debt.
At present, the logic of the market is shifting from the main line of profit recovery to risk promotion. Profit drives the spread of risk preference - military industry and securities dealers. This stage is being fulfilled. The third winner or loser opens, pays attention to the end-of-year style switching, positively lays out the new beta.
In terms of industry allocation, Guojun Securities recommends that attention be paid to: 1) banks. At present, it is the time when LPR reform reduces interest margins and affects the full fermentation of bank profit expectations, and it is also the best time for the layout of banks. 2) Building materials. The next unexpected source, special debt, will be the key to stimulating construction and building materials. 3) Media. The low base effect under the high goodwill impairment, the style switching effect caused by the superimposition of profit recovery, along with the catalytic promotion of events, the media opportunities will gradually be realized.
Gold strategy: bullish A-share gold market in September is the rebound window period worth investor participation
Guojin Securities strategy said that bullish A shares in September gold market, tend to gradually active market, A shares volume will be enlarged, follow-up A shares are expected to repeat the market in the first quarter of this year. At present, in order to be worth investors participation in the rebound window period, it is suggested that investors continue to maintain a positive strategy for the trend of A shares.
There are four main points to support the judgment: 1) Towards the 70th anniversary, the characteristics of A-share market will reappear; 2) In September, A-share market is in a more relaxed monetary environment, and the lowering confirms the start of domestic wide monetary cycle; 3) The disclosure of A-share mid-term report is completed, and in September, A-share market is in a short vacuum period of performance, and enterprises in a short period of time. The impact of earnings on A shares will be relatively weakened; 4) FTSE Russell and Dow Jones Standard & Poors A shares will enter an intensive period, and net inflows of foreign capital can be expected.
In terms of industry allocation, the Guojin Securities Group believes that while the traditional consumer sector shares are gradually differentiated, it is more optimistic about the follow-up performance of the 5G, semiconductor, computer and securities dealer sectors. In addition, it also suggests that attention be paid to the automobile and spare parts sector.
Broadcasting Strategy: Judgment of Keeping the Good Times of Science and Technology Unswitched
Guangfa Securities Strategic Team said that it would not change the current bullish view for fear of a higher probability of lowering the standard in history, while stable growth and reform expectations are expected to deepen. Expansion of local special debt, expansion of investable projects of special debt and expectation of interest rate reduction (reducing MLF interest rate to guide the fall of real loan interest rate) will further enhance the profitability of cyclical products in the infrastructure chain and the liquidity environment for the growth of science and technology.
Guangfa Securities Strategy Team maintains the judgment that the good times of science and technology will not be switched. In the second half of the market, this wave of independent cocoa industry moved the first-ever technological independent cocoa industry chain to the second ranking in the past two months.
In terms of industry allocation, the Guangfa Securities Team currently proposes three lines: 1) infrastructure related to local special debt (infrastructure, cement, high and low pressure equipment); 2) technology autonomous Enke (semiconductor, PCB, consumer electronics); 3) real estate leader of securities firms (real estate may be reduced in late September to cash).