As I knew earlier, the probability of the Feds interest rate cut in September increased as long money accelerated its entry into the market.

category:Finance
 As I knew earlier, the probability of the Feds interest rate cut in September increased as long money accelerated its entry into the market.


S&P Dow Jones Index announced that 1099 Chinese A-share listed companies will be included in the S&P Emerging Markets Index (BMI) effective September 23, including 147 large-cap stocks, 251 small-cap stocks and 701 small-cap stocks. The estimated weight of A-share in the index is about 6.2%. China Merchants Securities estimates that this will bring about a passive incremental capital of $1.1 billion for A shares.

Ten occupational annuities have entered the investment operation, and it is expected that most of them will be put into operation by the end of this year or the first half of next year. Assuming that the proportion of equity is controlled at 10%, by the end of next year, conservatively, it is expected that the occupational annuity will enter the market with more than 100 billion dollars.

The Office of the Security Committee of the State Council and the Emergency Management Department recently convened a national video conference on security precautions to mobilize and redeploy the current prevention and mitigation of major security risks.

In August, Chinas exports (in Renminbi) grew by 2.6% year-on-year, its pre-value increased by 10.3%, its imports decreased by 2.6% and its pre-value increased by 0.4%, and its trade surplus increased by 41.8% to 239.6 billion yuan.

US-Africa employment data are less likely to cut interest rates than expected by the Federal Reserve in September

The latest U.S. non-farm employment data were unexpectedly lower than market expectations. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the low interest rate policy contributed to the economic development of the United States. According to the industry, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September increased significantly. Powells public speech last week was interpreted by analysts as a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in September. Faranello, head of U.S. ratings at Amerivet Securities, an investment company, said Powells speech would not change market expectations for the Feds interest rate cut in September.

Peoples Daily: Pork market is generally stable and meat supply is guaranteed

Peoples Daily said that in the long run, in order to ensure the long-term stable supply of pork, various local departments have introduced a series of strong measures to stabilize the market since this year. On the one hand, we must strengthen the prevention and control of African swine plague. At present, the epidemic areas in most provinces have lifted the blockade according to the regulations, and the order of pig production and transportation has been gradually restored. On the other hand, we should speed up the recovery of the enthusiasm of the main body of pig farming and the recovery of pig production capacity. The policy of combination boxing concentrates its efforts, the pork market is generally stable, and the market meat supply is guaranteed.

Interest Rate Reduction trilogy is expected to play gradually

The central bank announced a reduction recently. Analysts believe that counter-cyclical adjustment of power, reduction is only the first battle. After perfecting the formation mechanism of loan market quotation rate (LPR) and realizing the anchor exchange of loan interest rate, the possibility of timely lowering MLF interest rate to further reduce the real loan interest rate increases. To some extent, it can be said that the MLF interest rate decline is a cut in interest rates. At present, the road map of interest rate reduction has gradually become clear, LPR mechanism improvement - LPR benchmark promotion - MLF small multiple adjustments interest rate reduction trilogy will be played successively.

Experts expect short-term MLF interest rates to not fall this week as the open market meets the maturity of $216.5 billion.

Overall, there were 441.5 billion MLFs due in September. In addition to MLFs due on September 7, there will be 265 billion MLFs due on September 17. Coupled with 100 billion yuan of fixed deposit of Treasury cash, the total amount of funds due in that month was 541.5 billion yuan. Although the industry expects that MLF will have room for adjustment during the year, some experts believe that the MLF interest rate will not be lowered in the short term. Jiang Chao team of Haitong Securities said in the research report that if the central bank maintains a sound monetary policy orientation, the lowered funds will be returned through MLF, which means that there may be no MLF operation in the next three months, which means that the short-term fall in MLF interest rates is actually a probability event.

Speeding up Special Debt Expansion and Promoting Effective Investment

Reporters learned from the Ministry of Finance that in terms of the rhythm of issuance, special bonds will be accelerated again: to ensure that all issuances are completed before the end of September and all allocations to projects before the end of October, to advance the release of a new part of the special bonds in 2020, to ensure that early next year can be used effectively; in terms of capital investment, funds follow the project, the use of special bonds. The scope and the scope of capital can be further expanded to cover major projects such as transportation, energy and peoples livelihood. At the same time, it is clear that the proportion of provincial special debt used for project capital is about 20%. The industry pointed out that the progress is faster, the scope is wider and the strength is more accurate. The effect of special debt on infrastructure construction will be more obvious, and it is expected to begin to show in the fourth quarter.

After its release at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 11, Apple will begin its full pre-sale on September 13 (the Chinese market will start at 3:00 p.m. on September 13) and officially open on September 20 (the Chinese market will start at 3:00 p.m. on September 20). According to the information leaked from the industry chain, the manufacturing cost of the three new machines this year can be reduced by 10% compared with last year, because the two generations of models remain basically unchanged in appearance, while the internal design can be more than 70% the same, which means that many parts can be used in general.

Gree Group is organizing the Jury Committee, Zhuhai SASASAC, to request that the review be completed by November.

According to Caixin report, the transfer of Gree Electric Appliances equity has entered a new stage of bidding between Gaolu Capital and Houpu Investment. At present, the controlling shareholder Gree Group is organizing a jury. The members of the jury shall not exceed ten and shall conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the two intended transferees. Zhuhai SASASAC requires Gree Group to complete the relevant review work by November. According to people familiar with the matter, the review will quantify the quotations and compliance of the two intended transferees. If all goes well, the results of the review will probably be published in mid-October.

Market dynamics

This week, 29 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets lifted the ban one after another, totaling 2.538 billion shares. According to the closing price on September 6, the market value of lifting the ban was 22.956 billion yuan, down by 35.37% annually.

New Trends of Private Equity Bosses in the Second Quarter

Wang Yawei reduced his long-held tri-polymer environmental protection, but Bin Chongcangs Maotai in Guizhou also reduced its storage space, but Bins preference for liquor remained unchanged, with a large increase of Wuliangye and Chinas Ping An.

After the first 10 announcements of lowering the benchmark, A shares rose six times and securities firms collectively voted for the future market.

According to statistics, from June 2015 to May this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose six times on the next trading day after the first 10 downgrades announced by the central bank; five times on the five trading days after the downgrades announced, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose positively; and six times on the 20 trading days after the downgrades announced, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose positively. Institutionsoptimistic expectations of the Golden Nine Market have further warmed up. CITIC Construction Investment Securities, which once played the bull market banner in the first quarter, has also made a new voice, and continue to look forward to the future market. It is suggested that securities firms and technology stocks be allocated preferentially.

Long Money Starts Occupational Annuity Investment in Ten Places

Three major indices gather together A-share foreign capital entering surging tide

The S&P Dow Jones Index recently included 1099 A shares in the relevant index, so far the three major international index giants have included A shares, and foreign investment in A shares has entered a new stage. Reporters have learned that some overseas capital management institutions are expanding their investment and research capacity to prepare for the future regulatory authorities to lift the restrictions on the proportion of foreign capital in relevant financial institutions.

Market analysis points out that with Chinas further opening up of capital market, the speed of foreign capital inflow is accelerating, which is beneficial to the long-term development of A shares. Overlapping a series of good news, such as the reduction of the central banks benchmark, the risk preference of A-share market continues to rise, which is expected to usher in Golden Nine.

Supporting A-share Multi-channel Long-term Funds to Accelerate Market Entry

At present, in addition to the acceleration of pension funds entering the market, the state-owned transfer social security funds have entered a full-speed promotion stage. The work of occupational pension entering the market is in full swing everywhere. The products of pension insurance are expected to be further expanded. These long-term funds have increased the ballast stone of the capital market. Experts generally believe that by stabilizing investorslong-term fund return expectations, the number of long-term funds such as insurance funds, pension funds, occupational annuities and other long-term funds will continue to increase, and the relationship between supply and demand in the financial market will be more stable.

The share of A-share ETF has dropped by 2.355 billion in the past week

From September 2 to September 6, the market shocked upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 3.93% and 4.89%, respectively. The ETF of A shares rose almost entirely, with a total turnover of 61.055 billion yuan, a significant increase of 118.81 billion yuan over the previous week. The total share of ETF in A shares decreased by 2.355 billion, with a net outflow of about 2.678 billion yuan.

Expansion of NAA Factor of Three International Indices Net inflow of funds northward is expected to further expand

Some market analysts believe that with the gradual implementation of the expansion of the three major international indices NAA factor, the scale of net northward capital inflow is expected to further expand. The continued northward inflow of funds mainly depends on the market environment, which is the direct performance of bullish A-share market. Pan Helin, senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told reporters that, specifically, the current A-share market has the following advantages: first, the three major international indices increase the weight of A-share, adding fresh blood to the A-share market. Secondly, the overall reduction of the refinancing rate of securities companies since August 8 can play a direct role in reducing the financing cost of securities firms and activating market investment participation. Thirdly, due to the economic recovery, the reform of capital market registration system and the increase of illegal cost of listed companies, the quality of Listed Companies in A-share market in China has steadily improved, the market environment has become mature, and the overall anti-risk ability has gradually improved. In addition, the continuous promotion of capital market opening to the outside world has also brought more convenience to the inflow of capital to the north.

Excellent and Loss Shares Going up A Shares or Starting from the Big Market

The news of the comprehensive + directional reduction of the central bank aroused heated discussion in the market, and stimulated investorsexpectations of the September market of A shares. From the recent internal operation structure of A shares, there has been a phenomenon of high-performance stocks and loss stocks rising simultaneously. These high-performance stocks are mainly concentrated in the field of science and technology, while loss stocks are mostly in the form of demon stocks. Analysts pointed out that performance stocks and loss stocks rose simultaneously, which happened in the past several times before the start of the larger market.

Industry News

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that the lists of Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges have been adjusted and will take effect from the trading date of the next Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This adjustment will be transferred to China Oriental Education, Yihai International, etc. Standard Chartered Group, Chinese Real Estate, Landscape Cement, Fuxing Tourism Culture, Fuzhikang Group, etc.

Millet will hold a 5G era charging technology communication meeting on September 9. It is reported that Millets second 5G mobile phone MI9S, namely Millet 9S, will be released at this communication meeting.

Last week, the new three-board listed companies traded 1.465 billion yuan, down by about a quarter, of which 842 million yuan were traded by market-making and 623 million yuan by collective bidding. Since this year, the turnover of the new three-board listed companies has exceeded 55 billion yuan.

Shenzhens First Key Research and Development Plan for Transportation Direction

According to the Shenzhen Urban Traffic Planning and Design Research Center, the National Key Research and Development Program Integrated Transportation and Intelligent Transportation project Big Data Computing Platform and Application Demonstration of Intelligent Urban Traffic Governance has been launched recently. This project is the first national key research and development plan of transportation direction led by Shenzhen Traffic Planning Center. It is jointly operated by 14 units including Sun Yat-sen University, China Urban Planning and Design Research Institute, Tongji University, Tencent Yun, Huawei, Tsinghua University, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Southwest Jiaotong University and so on. Exhibition of research.

5G Solves the Pain Point of Healthy Old-age Industry

Emergency call for intelligent rescue, life radar all-weather monitoring... In recent years, 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and other technologies have injected development momentum into the transformation and upgrading of the pension industry. More and more intelligent technology has been applied to the old-age industry, resulting in the intelligent old-age industry. Internet of Things and intelligent equipment combine family support, residential recuperation, institutional care and so on, which can provide all-weather, efficient and convenient old-age services for the elderly.

Since the 1st Review Conference of 2019 was held on June 5 this year, in the three months up to September 5, the Committee of the Listing Committee of the Science and Technology Creative Board held 21 Review Conferences and considered the applications of 47 companies for listing on the Science Creative Board, of which 46 were for approval and 1 was for disagreement. After sorting out the main questions raised during the deliberations of the 47 companies mentioned above, patent is one of the more questions asked by the listing committee.

Judging from the stock market value, the latest stock market value of Beisheng Capital has officially exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.15 trillion yuan, a record high, an increase of 5.54% over the previous weekend. Compared with 7 weeks ago, Beisheng increased its warehouse by 23 shares for 7 consecutive weeks, mostly in pharmaceutical, biological, public utilities and electronic stocks. Some of the stocks that have been increased have stepped out of a wave of rising prices. Shennan Circuit, Yaoming Kant, Qixing Chen, Kangtai Biology and Tongfu Microelectronics have increased by more than 20%.

In the first half of the year, fund consignment sales of many banks declined significantly.

Enhanced ETF with Frequent Innovation is expected to be on the market

Open Transactional Index Funds (ETFs) have entered a prosperous period. After the approval of the first batch of commodity futures ETFs, another type of innovative ETFs has made substantial progress. The first batch of enhanced ETF reports have been accepted by the SFC, and the related products have been answered, and are expected to be on the market in the near future.

The listed companies of Kechuanban Pharmaceutical Industry will expand the capacity of six pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises to enter the state of inquiry

In addition to the listed companies in the field of biomedicine, there are 51 companies in the inquiry status, including 6 pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises, accounting for 11.8% according to the industry classification of the Securities Regulatory Commission. If these enterprises go public smoothly in the future, they will also drive the rapid development of scientific and technological innovation in the field of biomedicine in China. From the six pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises in the inquiry status of Kechuangban, except Oriental Gene and Shuoshi Biology, the remaining four enterprises, Salem Biology, Baiotai, Fudan Zhangjiang and Zehuang Pharmaceutical are mainly engaged in innovative drug research and development enterprises.

The rebound of steel billet is expected to continue with the arrival of Jinjiu

The billet market rebounded slightly last week. Downstream rolling enterprises resume production to promote the enthusiasm of billet procurement, billet spot turnover is relatively smooth. At present, the lower reaches of the standard rolling enterprises have basically resumed production, Tangshan billet warehousing spot prices have risen, low-cost resources transaction is obviously smooth, superimposed on the upstream volatility of the futures market, billet prices have been pulled upward. However, considering that the recent macro news level is not obviously good, the market has limited upstream space.

Institutional Research Breaking the Threshold 5G Industry Chain Company is ready to start

Data show that since this year, 58 5G concept companies have been surveyed by institutional investors, and some have even been broken the threshold. Among them, 6 companies received more than 100 institutional surveys. With the acceleration of 5G investment and the steady progress of base station construction, related companies in the industrial chain have gradually benefited. Reporters recently learned from a number of 5G industrial chain companies that many companies have scratched their hands and reserve capacity is ready to start. Industry insiders pointed out that with the development of 5G industry, the key is whether the orders of related companies in the industrial chain can be fulfilled and the continuous growth of performance can be promoted.

Institutional strategy

CITIC Construction Investment: The decrease of interest rate in the third quarter brought about the decrease of financing cost, the gradual bottom of corporate profits and the increase of discount rate.

CITIC Construction and Investment Strategy Research Team: In the third quarter of 2019, the decline in interest rates brought about a decline in financing costs, corporate profits gradually bottomed out, discount rate increased, and is expected to achieve 3500 points in the year. From the perspective of industry allocation, firstly, securities firms will constitute the best industry when the second stage of bull market comes. In the long run, Chinas economic development will be directly financed, and the reform of capital market will be good for securities firms in the long run. Secondly, interest rates have fallen, economic restructuring, long-term growth stock valuation level has risen faster, plus the improvement of earnings expectations, we are optimistic in the long run. Thirdly, credit is loose, interest rates are falling, counter-cyclical efforts are intensified, and there are good opportunities for the low valuation and part of the cycle (such as chemical industry, automobile) industry with reversal of difficulties. Fourthly, consumption has become the main demand for endogenous growth, which is also a direction worthy of long-term adherence. Fifthly, the allocation value of the high dividend board has new attraction for fixed income investors after the interest rate has fallen. Therefore, we first recommend the allocation of securities firms and technology, plus cyclical products such as chemicals and automobiles with reversed difficulties, adhere to consumption and high dividend varieties, and achieve a bumper harvest in autumn and autumn.

Minsheng Securities: Benefit A Shares from Profit and Valuation

Minsheng Securities Strategy Research Team: Reduce the benchmark from the profit and valuation point of view are good A shares. Judging from the relative valuation level, profit elasticity, regulatory environment, technology prosperity and other factors, small and medium-sized market value companies will have greater flexibility in the future. In the industry, we will continue to be optimistic about the combination of science and technology stocks (electronics, communications, computers, military industry, games) and securities dealers, and pay attention to the rising varieties in the chemical, non-ferrous and agricultural sectors. Towards the end of the third quarter report, it is suggested that we begin to consider guaranteed earnings, and turn part of it to low-valuation stagflation plate, high-quality state-owned enterprises in building materials, real estate and public utilities.

Bank of China International Securities Macro-consolidation Research Team: After the benchmark reduction, the bond market is not the time to make a bold bet, unless there is a liquidity trap, excessive monetary easing may accelerate future inflation and growth pressures; moreover, it is worth observing whether the currency will be loose as a result; therefore, at the present position. On the other hand, we should at least observe whether the next 10-year Treasury bond can break through 3% in substance, and suggest cautious action.

Wanlithi: FINSTONEAG, the largest shareholder, signed the Equity Transfer Agreement with Jinlin Sihai Co., Ltd. and Badaguan Science and Technology Group Co., Ltd. and agreed to transfer 43.05 million shares of the company, accounting for 21.53% of the companys total equity by means of agreement transfer.

Kechuangban Xingushan Stone Network Branch and Hotspring Biology Online Purchase on September 18;

Eastern Software Carrier Controller intends to transfer no more than 20% of the shares into the state-owned assets;

Baosteel Metal intends to become an important shareholder of Wanfeng Awey.

Huijishan and Tianmu Pharmaceutical Industry have received the decision on administrative supervision measures.

Inquiry letters for the reorganization of China Railways major scientific and technological assets;

Guangfeng Technology has received the notice of acceptance of the request for invalidation.

The amount of sales contracted in August before Poly Real Estate increased by 16.19% compared with the same period last year.

Jacks Share Planning and Standard Shares to carry out strategic cooperation;

Intelligent Self-Holding East and some of its supervisors plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3.4%.

Investment invitation project of municipal solid waste incineration power generation in Bioxi County in urban development environment;

Huali Chuangtong plans to join the East Lake Finance Research Institute for 15 million yuan.

Jin Mingjing intends to transfer the base price of Far East Light Industry to 240 million yuan.

Taishan Nuclear Power Unit 2 will be ready for commercial operation.

Pro Pharmaceutical said that amphetazone hydrochloride sustained-release tablets were approved by the FDA of the United States.

Source of this article: Netease Financial Responsibility Editor: Yang Qian_NF4425