Outlook review: how long will the pig price fly?

category:Finance
 Outlook review: how long will the pig price fly?


Like Xiong Lijiao, many people have a common feeling recently: pork prices have risen too much.

According to the data monitored jointly by the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas and Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., at the end of August, the weekly average of the total price index of lean white striped pork in 16 provinces (cities) was 35.63 yuan per kilogram, up more than 90% from the same period last year.

The head of the operation and regulation department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural market and information technology said that the rise in pork price was the result of the superposition of the African swine plague and the cyclical factors. The current round of hog prices went into a new round of rise after falling to a cyclical low in May 2018. After being affected by the African swine plague, the pig production capacity decreased significantly, and the pig price continued to rise rapidly after a short adjustment.

Reporters have previously interviewed in some major pig production areas to see that many pig farms have been cleared. All five farms in the village were empty, and the pigs handled included sows and more than 100 kilograms of fat pigs. In the town of Wang Er, a traditional pig breeding town in Qianshan County, Shangrao, Jiangxi, Wen Zhiping, a large pig farmer in Wen Jia village, told reporters that the temperature was higher in the earlier period, which was generally the low season of pig slaughter, but the actual situation was that there were no farms in the pig farms, and it was hard to hear pig calls in the village.

Surveillance data released by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas in 400 pig monitoring counties show that in July this year, pig stocks decreased by 32.2% compared with the same period last year, and the stocks of able sows decreased by 31.9% compared with the same period last year.

The decline in livestock prices has directly pushed up pork prices and transmitted to pork prices.

Zhangshu City, Jiangxi Province, is a major pig farming and export city, with a total of about 700,000 pigs in the whole year. Mei Yiguang, deputy director of the agricultural and rural Bureau of Zhangshu City, told reporters that in the past, the highest local pig price had not exceeded 10 yuan / Jin, and now it has risen to 15 yuan / Jin. In the past, a pig earned 500 yuan was a high profit, and now it can earn more than 1500 yuan at the same time.

Pig grain price ratio is an important index to measure pig price and breeding efficiency. Feng Yonghui, principal analyst of the China pig warning network, said that under normal circumstances, the pig and pig farming profit and loss balance point recognized by the industry is that the pig grain price ratio reaches 6: 1, and 9: 1 is the warning point for the pig price too high. However, the current pig grain price ratio has exceeded 12: 1, and the pig price has surpassed the highest historical point of 10.6 yuan / Jin in 2016.

The fourth quarter is expected to stop the decline and stabilize

A recent executive meeting of the State Council proposed that comprehensive measures should be taken to restore pig production through the development of large-scale farming and strengthening the construction of animal epidemic prevention system. On September 3, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a circular to further improve the temporary loan discount for large-scale pig farms and increase the incentives for pig transfers from large counties to promote pig production and ensure market supply.

Yuan Dianming, who has been raising pigs for nearly 30 years in Gaoan City, Jiangxi Province, one of the top 100 counties in animal husbandry in China, shut down 8,000 pig farms in his own year last year. Recently, the government has introduced policies to encourage rehabilitation, and the price of pork has been rising. Yuan has already ordered a batch of breeding pigs from a pig breeding company in Beijing to prepare for breeding. I ordered a sow for 6400 yuan and a boar for 7500 yuan last month, twice or three times as much as before. I heard that the price has gone up again. Yuan Dianming told reporters that the popularity of pig breeding market also shows from the side that farmerswillingness to re-raise is increasing.

At the same time, the main pig producing areas also take active measures to stabilize and restore pig production. As a major province of traditional pig production and pig transfer, Jiangxi maintains an annual export of 10 million to 14 million pigs, of which Shanghai pigs rank first in the country and Hong Kong pigs rank second in the country. Recently, Jiangxi Province proposed that promoting pig production and guaranteeing market supply should be listed as the key inspections of the provincial government, increasing investment, focusing on supporting the reproduction and raising of large-scale pig farms, and striving to achieve a net transfer of more than 10 million pigs this year.

Not long ago, Zhangshu Twin Pig Co., Ltd. has received 300,000 yuan of pig breeding subsidies from the government. Su Fumin, head of the company, said the governments support had given the company a reassuring pill. They planned to introduce 2,000 sows in September and 10,000 sows in the year.

Prior to this, many large piggery enterprises with stronger risk resistance have launched production expansion plans. Reporters sorted out the public reports of pig breeding listed companies. From January to July this year, Ao Nong Biology, Tianbang Science and Technology, Dabeinong, Zhengbang Science and Technology, Wens shares and other large-scale breeding enterprises increased year-on-year. Among them, 399,000 Ao Nong Biology pigs were listed, an increase of 63% year-on-year. Tianbang Science and Technology accumulated 1678,000 pigs. It grew 55% year-on-year. Many large pig farming enterprises also said that they would invest more in pig farming projects or bases in the future.

Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that pork supply is relatively tight at present, but it is generally guaranteed that there will be no shortage of meat in the bowl of the people, and the production of live pigs in the fourth quarter is expected to stop falling and stabilize.

Anti-epidemic Threshold Forces Industrial Upgrading Again

After this round of the strongest pig cycle superimposed with African swine fever, Chinas pig production is gradually recovering, and there have been some new changes. It shows that after raising funds threshold and environmental threshold, pig breeding is ushering in a higher threshold for epidemic prevention, and the demand for epidemic prevention technology and Biosafety is higher and higher.

Mei Yiguang said that in the previous round of the pig cycle, the pig raising industrys capital threshold has been constantly raised. A large number of scattered households who have insufficient anti risk ability have been withdrawn. In recent years, with the implementation of the new environmental protection law, the environmental protection threshold for pig breeding industry has been gradually highlighted, and many environmental protection substandard small ones. The pig farm has been closed down; at present, the third threshold of the pig breeding industry in China - the threshold of epidemic prevention will become more prominent.

According to the responsible person of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the level of epidemic prevention in pig farms (households) in China is generally not high, which is determined by the way of farming, most of which are relatively small and free-range.

Luo Yugen, president of Gaoan Pig Industry Association, said that in this round of pig re-breeding, farmers with the intention of re-breeding must complete the short board of epidemic prevention and improve the biological safety level of farms. Reporters learned that in Gaoan City, where he is located, 10 mu of land has been selected, ready to invest 3 million yuan, a new livestock and poultry transport vehicle washing center, all vehicles entering and leaving Gaoan for livestock and poultry transport should be disinfected here.

Increasing and higher access threshold has further accelerated the process of large-scale pig farming industry in China. This African Swine Fever brings another industry shuffle, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. Chen Lixiang said that many modern large-scale pig farms are equipped with scientific feeding, environmental deodorization, biosafety and other systems, from breeding to release are controllable, and small pig farms are difficult to meet this requirement. Looking from the actual situation, the current replenishment of the column is also mainly some large aquaculture enterprises and listed companies. In the view of Feng Yonghui and other industry insiders, as in the last round of environmental renovation, many aquaculture enterprises have transformed in the relocation and transfer process, this time the pig farming industry in China will upgrade in the resumption of production. (the original title is how long does the lookout pig price fly ): the source: surging news editor: Li Zhao Yuan _B7890

Increasing and higher access threshold has further accelerated the process of large-scale pig farming industry in China. This African Swine Fever brings another industry shuffle, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. Chen Lixiang said that many modern large-scale pig farms are equipped with scientific feeding, environmental deodorization, biosafety and other systems, from breeding to release are controllable, and small pig farms are difficult to meet this requirement. Looking from the actual situation, the current replenishment of the column is also mainly some large aquaculture enterprises and listed companies.

In the view of Feng Yonghui and other industry insiders, as in the last round of environmental renovation, many aquaculture enterprises have transformed in the relocation and transfer process, this time the pig farming industry in China will upgrade in the resumption of production.

(the original title is how long will the pig price of the lookout fly)?