How much longer does the pig price exceed the historical peak of 10.6 yuan / jin?

category:Society
 How much longer does the pig price exceed the historical peak of 10.6 yuan / jin?


_On February 15, at Qingdao Agricultural Market, Shandong Province, people are choosing pork.

The rise in pork price is the result of the superposition of African swine plague and cyclical factors.

Data show that at the end of August, the weekly average of the total price index of lean white striped pork in 16 provinces (cities) in China was 35.63 yuan per kilogram, up more than 90% year on year.

Promoted by national policies and market conditions, the confidence of pig breeding industry is gradually restoring, and some pig breeding enterprises have begun to replenish the fence for reproduction.

It is expected that pig production will stop falling and stabilize in the fourth quarter.

After the threshold of funds and environmental protection, pig farming ushered in a higher threshold of epidemic prevention, which will force the industry to upgrade.

Storage has been reduced by one third, meat prices have doubled, frozen meat reserves have been put in various places, temporary price limitation and purchase restriction measures have been adopted, and the executive meeting of the State Council has put forward measures to stabilize pig production. Pigs have attracted much attention in the pig year.

After a round of soaring and slumping pig cycle, especially after the shortage of pork, more and more people are thinking: where is the problem of pig industry in China? Where is the way of two brothers?

A pig earns 1500 yuan.

Xiong Lijiao, a member of the public in Nanchang city of Jiangxi Province, has eaten a lot of pork recently. She told the reporter of the news weekly of lookout: chop knife meat is more than 20 yuan a catty, pork ribs 40 yuan a catty, doubling than usual, really cant afford to eat.

Like Xiong Lijiao, many people have a common feeling recently: pork prices have risen too much.

According to the data monitored jointly by the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas and Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., at the end of August, the weekly average of the total price index of lean white striped pork in 16 provinces (cities) was 35.63 yuan per kilogram, up more than 90% from the same period last year.

In Chinas pig breeding industry, there has been a period of sharp rise and fall of pig prices. Although people have gone through a round of pig cycle, they seldom think that pork that is used to the table will become scarce.

The head of the operation and regulation department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural market and information technology said that the rise in pork price was the result of the superposition of the African swine plague and the cyclical factors. The current round of hog prices went into a new round of rise after falling to a cyclical low in May 2018. After being affected by the African swine plague, the pig production capacity decreased significantly, and the pig price continued to rise rapidly after a short adjustment.

Reporters have previously interviewed in some major pig production areas to see that many pig farms have been cleared. All five farms in the village were empty, and the pigs handled included sows and more than 100 kilograms of fat pigs. In the town of Wang Er, a traditional pig breeding town in Qianshan County, Shangrao, Jiangxi, Wen Zhiping, a large pig farmer in Wen Jia village, told reporters that the temperature was higher in the earlier period, which was generally the low season of pig slaughter, but the actual situation was that there were no farms in the pig farms, and it was hard to hear pig calls in the village.

Surveillance data released by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas in 400 pig monitoring counties show that in July this year, pig stocks decreased by 32.2% compared with the same period last year, and the stocks of able sows decreased by 31.9% compared with the same period last year.

The decline in livestock prices has directly pushed up pork prices and transmitted to pork prices.

Zhangshu City, Jiangxi Province, is a major pig farming and export city, with a total of about 700,000 pigs in the whole year. Mei Yiguang, deputy director of the agricultural and rural Bureau of Zhangshu City, told reporters that in the past, the highest local pig price had not exceeded 10 yuan / Jin, and now it has risen to 15 yuan / Jin. In the past, a pig earned 500 yuan was a high profit, and now it can earn more than 1500 yuan at the same time.

Pig grain price ratio is an important index to measure pig price and breeding efficiency. Feng Yonghui, principal analyst of the China pig warning network, said that under normal circumstances, the pig and pig farming profit and loss balance point recognized by the industry is that the pig grain price ratio reaches 6: 1, and 9: 1 is the warning point for the pig price too high. However, the current pig grain price ratio has exceeded 12: 1, and the pig price has surpassed the highest historical point of 10.6 yuan / Jin in 2016.

The fourth quarter is expected to stop the decline and stabilize

A recent executive meeting of the State Council proposed that comprehensive measures should be taken to restore pig production through the development of large-scale farming and strengthening the construction of animal epidemic prevention system. On September 3, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a circular to further improve the temporary loan discount for large-scale pig farms and increase the incentives for pig transfers from large counties to promote pig production and ensure market supply.

Reporters recently visited some major pig production areas to see that, driven by national policies and market conditions, the confidence of the pig breeding industry is gradually restoring, and some breeding enterprises have begun to restore production.

Yuan Dianming, who has been raising pigs for nearly 30 years in Gaoan City, Jiangxi Province, one of the top 100 counties in animal husbandry in China, shut down 8,000 pig farms in his own year last year. Recently, the government has introduced policies to encourage rehabilitation, and the price of pork has been rising. Yuan has already ordered a batch of breeding pigs from a pig breeding company in Beijing to prepare for breeding. I ordered a sow for 6400 yuan and a boar for 7500 yuan last month, twice or three times as much as before. I heard that the price has gone up again. Yuan Dianming told reporters that the popularity of pig breeding market also shows from the side that farmerswillingness to re-raise is increasing.

At the same time, the main pig producing areas also take active measures to stabilize and restore pig production. As a major province of traditional pig production and pig transfer, Jiangxi maintains an annual export of 10 million to 14 million pigs, of which Shanghai pigs rank first in the country and Hong Kong pigs rank second in the country. Recently, Jiangxi Province proposed that promoting pig production and guaranteeing market supply should be listed as the key inspections of the provincial government, increasing investment, focusing on supporting the reproduction and raising of large-scale pig farms, and striving to achieve a net transfer of more than 10 million pigs this year.

Not long ago, Zhangshu Twin Pig Co., Ltd. has received 300,000 yuan of pig breeding subsidies from the government. Su Fumin, head of the company, said the governments support had given the company a reassuring pill. They planned to introduce 2,000 sows in September and 10,000 sows in the year.

Prior to this, many large piggery enterprises with stronger risk resistance have launched production expansion plans. Reporters sorted out the public reports of pig breeding listed companies. From January to July this year, Ao Nong Biology, Tianbang Science and Technology, Dabeinong, Zhengbang Science and Technology, Wens shares and other large-scale breeding enterprises increased year-on-year. Among them, 399,000 Ao Nong Biology pigs were listed, an increase of 63% year-on-year. Tianbang Science and Technology accumulated 1678,000 pigs. It grew 55% year-on-year. Many large pig farming enterprises also said that they would invest more in pig farming projects or bases in the future.

Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that pork supply is relatively tight at present, but it is generally guaranteed that there will be no shortage of meat in the bowl of the people, and the production of live pigs in the fourth quarter is expected to stop falling and stabilize.

Anti-epidemic Threshold Forces Industrial Upgrading Again

After this round of the strongest pig cycle superimposed with African swine fever, Chinas pig production is gradually recovering, and there have been some new changes. It shows that after raising funds threshold and environmental threshold, pig breeding is ushering in a higher threshold for epidemic prevention, and the demand for epidemic prevention technology and Biosafety is higher and higher.

Mei Yiguang said that in the previous round of the pig cycle, the pig raising industrys capital threshold has been constantly raised. A large number of scattered households who have insufficient anti risk ability have withdrawn. In recent years, with the implementation of the new environmental protection law, the environmental protection threshold for pig breeding industry has been gradually highlighted, and many small pigs whose environmental protection is not up to standard. The farm has been closed down; at present, the third threshold of pig breeding industry in China, the threshold of epidemic prevention, will become more prominent.

According to the responsible person of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the level of epidemic prevention in pig farms (households) in China is generally not high, which is determined by the way of farming, most of which are relatively small and free-range.

This African swine fever gives many farmers a warning that raising pigs not only meets the environmental protection standards, but also meets the epidemic prevention standards. Chen Lixiang, deputy general manager of Netease Weiyang Co., Ltd., introduced that many farms used to do simple disinfection, but now the epidemic situation has changed and the requirements for prevention and control are higher. Many farms have increased investment in this area, for example, vehicles entering and leaving the pig farm only need the wheels to be disinfected by the disinfection pond before, and now they are disinfected by sprinklers on all sides.

Luo Yugen, president of Gaoan Pig Industry Association, said that in this round of pig re-breeding, farmers with the intention of re-breeding must complete the short board of epidemic prevention and improve the biological safety level of farms. Reporters learned that in Gaoan City, where he is located, 10 mu of land has been selected, ready to invest 3 million yuan, a new livestock and poultry transport vehicle washing center, all vehicles entering and leaving Gaoan for livestock and poultry transport should be disinfected here. Increasing and higher access threshold has further accelerated the process of large-scale pig farming industry in China. This African Swine Fever brings another industry shuffle, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. Chen Lixiang said that many modern large-scale pig farms are equipped with scientific feeding, environmental deodorization, biosafety and other systems, from breeding to release are controllable, and small pig farms are difficult to meet this requirement. Looking from the actual situation, the current replenishment of the column is also mainly some large aquaculture enterprises and listed companies. In the view of Feng Yonghui and other industry insiders, as in the last round of environmental renovation, many aquaculture enterprises have transformed in the relocation and transfer process, this time the pig farming industry in China will upgrade in the resumption of production. Source: Xing Haibo_NBJS8850, Responsible Editor of Looking News Weekly

Luo Yugen, president of Gaoan Pig Industry Association, said that in this round of pig re-breeding, farmers with the intention of re-breeding must complete the short board of epidemic prevention and improve the biological safety level of farms. Reporters learned that in Gaoan City, where he is located, 10 mu of land has been selected, ready to invest 3 million yuan, a new livestock and poultry transport vehicle washing center, all vehicles entering and leaving Gaoan for livestock and poultry transport should be disinfected here.

Increasing and higher access threshold has further accelerated the process of large-scale pig farming industry in China. This African Swine Fever brings another industry shuffle, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. Chen Lixiang said that many modern large-scale pig farms are equipped with scientific feeding, environmental deodorization, biosafety and other systems, from breeding to release are controllable, and small pig farms are difficult to meet this requirement. Looking from the actual situation, the current replenishment of the column is also mainly some large aquaculture enterprises and listed companies.

In the view of Feng Yonghui and other industry insiders, as in the last round of environmental renovation, many aquaculture enterprises have transformed in the relocation and transfer process, this time the pig farming industry in China will upgrade in the resumption of production.