The 6th drop in the year! The price of refined oil in this round or continue to fall: nails on the board

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 The 6th drop in the year! The price of refined oil in this round or continue to fall: nails on the board


China-Singapore longitude and latitude client August 20 (20) 24:00 today, the domestic retail price of refined oil will usher in a new round of adjustment. Several agencies expect that the domestic oil product price will be reduced in the near future. If the reduction is realized, the retail price of domestic refined oil will fall for the sixth time in the year, and it will also achieve two consecutive declines since August.

New longitude and latitude Xu Shiming photograph in the data map

OPECs production reduction expectation is difficult to prevent the fall of international oil price

In this round of domestic oil product pricing cycle, international oil prices showed a roller coaster trend, the cycle began to fall, and since then there have been four consecutive increases. In the early morning of Beijing time on the 15th, international oil prices fell and rebounded. The prices of WTI September crude oil futures and Brent October crude oil futures fell by 3.27% and 2.97%, respectively.

On the news, on August 14, local time, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that in the week ending August 9, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 1.6 million barrels annually, rising for the second consecutive week, reaching 440.5 million barrels, about 3% higher than the average in the past five years. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) previously published a monthly report that global crude oil demand grew by 520,000 barrels per day in January-May this year, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

In terms of the economic situation, the World Economic Outlook issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted the world economic growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 to 3.2% and 3.5%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecast in April this year, which is the third consecutive reduction of the IMF growth forecast in the year.

Zheng Mingya, an information analyst at Zhuochuang, pointed out that oil prices rebounded after a sharp fall in the current valuation cycle, when OPEC had the intention to take action to stop the decline in oil prices and boosted by the decline in European crude oil inventories. However, due to the continuous increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the sharp rise in recession risk caused by the inversion of U.S. bond yields, international oil prices rebounded.

Two consecutive declines in domestic oil prices are almost certain

Li Yang, an oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, pointed out recently that as of August 16, the change rate of reference crude oil was -6.35% in the eighth working day of the current pricing cycle. If the international oil price maintains a small fluctuation pattern, the final retail price will be reduced by 200-210 yuan/ton.

Zheng Mingya said that since the current pricing cycle, the crude oil change rate has continued to operate in a negative range, and the corresponding price adjustment range as of August 16 has far exceeded the 50 yuan/ton price adjustment red line. The retail price of this round will be closed below.

On August 19, according to Jin Lianchuangs calculation, as of the ninth working day of the current valuation cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 57.33 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of - 6.28%. The corresponding price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 195 yuan per ton.

China-Singapore longitude-latitude client combing found that since this year, including March 31 due to the adjustment of VAT tax rate, domestic oil prices have undergone 16 rounds of price adjustment, showing a nine-liter-five-drop-two-strand pattern. Up to now, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been increased by 335 yuan/ton and 345 yuan/ton respectively. If the current round of reductions is realized, domestic refined oil prices will achieve two consecutive declines in August, which will also be the sixth reduction in the year.

Li Yang pointed out that although the domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to fall, the recent wholesale situation has gone up. Affected by typhoon rainfall, some refineries in Shandong Geotechnical Refinery temporarily stopped working or loading, the supply of resources was relatively reduced, and the prices of gasoline and diesel oil rose sharply. With the implementation of the reduction of the retail price of refined oil, the travel cost of consumers will be moderately reduced.

The next round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will open at 24:00 on September 3, 2019. Li Yan, crude oil analyst of Longzhong Information, said that the weak performance of the current international crude oil market will accumulate to the next round, and the next round of price reduction for refined oil is expected to have a greater probability.

Source: Sino-New Zealand Longitudinal and Weft Author: Editor-in-Charge of Feng Fang: Su Honghong_NBJ9980