CPI is in the second period for five consecutive months. The overall price level is expected to remain basically stable.

 CPI is in the second period for five consecutive months. The overall price level is expected to remain basically stable.

Yue Xiuhu, Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that with the coming of the seasonal fruit market, especially in the main apple and pear producing areas, the overall production situation is very good, and the harvest is expected, and the price of fruits in the later period is expected to fall further.

Specific data show that, with the large number of vegetables on the market, prices have fallen significantly. Monitoring data from 36 large and medium-sized cities showed that the average retail price of 15 vegetables fell back to 3.02 yuan per kilogram in early August, 28.6% lower than the high point in mid-February. Among them, the prices of cucumber, cabbage and tomato dropped by 12%, 9.2% and 8.4% respectively. Later prices are expected to continue to fall and remain seasonally volatile.

Yue Xiuhu said that the main factors affecting the overall price level are structural factors. With the price of fruits and vegetables falling, and then a bumper summer grain harvest, stable production of agricultural products and adequate supply of industrial products, Chinas overall price level is expected to continue to maintain a basically stable operation.

Li Chao, chief macro-analyst of Huatai Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that insufficient production of stored fruits (such as apples and pears) in northern China last year affected this years stock. In the spring of this year, heavy rainfall in the southern region may affect the picking and transportation of seasonal fruit such as pineapple. Abnormal weather factors combined with low inventory are the main reasons for the increase of fruit CPI in the second quarter of this year. With the summer season fruit watermelon, grapes, autumn apples, pears and other gradual listing, fruit price pressure is gradually eased. In the medium and long term, the adjustment speed of fruit supply side is faster, and fruit price will not be the risk factor of sustained upward inflation.

Pork prices have risen to some extent in recent years, mainly due to the occurrence of African swine plague since August last year, which has led to a great impact on pig production and supply in China. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that governments at all levels will focus on supporting pig farms and large-scale farms to restore and expand production capacity, and timely start the linkage mechanism of price subsidies.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that at present, it has promulgated a number of supporting policies, including fiscal, financial and land policies, focusing on supporting the restoration and expansion of production capacity of pig farms and large-scale farms. At the same time, we should actively guide broiler and other aquaculture industries to expand production and increase the supply of alternatives. According to the fixed-point monitoring by the relevant departments, the number of broilers in the first half of this year increased substantially, an increase of 15.8% over the same period last year. At the same time, beef cattle and mutton sheep also increased significantly, and the whole meat protein supply was stable.

Yue Xiuhu said that the stocks of sows could be doubled in scale farms that were not affected by the epidemic. Some scale farms (live pigs) increased by 20% to 30%, and some even increased by more than 60%.

At the same time, in order to cope with the sharp fluctuation of pork prices, since April this year, 29 provinces across the country have launched a price-subsidy linkage mechanism. A total of more than 2 billion yuan of temporary price subsidies have been granted, and more than 80 million people have been subsidized. According to the calculation of 2 or 2 meat per person per day, the price of lean meat has risen by 10%. Per person, the monthly expenditure may increase by about 10 yuan. Subsidies issued under the price-compensated linkage mechanism can ensure that the basic life of the poor people is not greatly affected. If price increases continue to expand in the future, the subsidy standard will be raised accordingly.

Yue Xiuhu said that the establishment of a certain scale of pork reserve, can be conditional and able to protect important holidays and consumption peak period of resident pork consumption. On the other hand, special arrangements will be made to strengthen market supervision and crack down on illegal practices such as hoarding, collusion and price rises. At the same time, we should strengthen the prevention and control of African swine plague, and restore pig production capacity as soon as possible.

Source: Liable Editor of Securities Daily: Yang Qian_NF4425