In this context, the tense situation of housing financing has attracted attention again. In view of the possible impact of this special inspection, some institutional personages believe that under the pressure of the environment, the open market bond issuance of Housing enterprises will also be affected to a certain extent.
At present, the policy of issuing bonds in the open market of real estate enterprises is indeed somewhat tightened, but it is not comprehensive. It mainly has some restrictions on the more radical real estate enterprises in the past, and has a list. On August 13, Fan Wei, deputy general manager of Shen Wanhongyuan Securities Fixed Income Financing Headquarters, told 21st Century Economic Reporter.
Credit stratification under tight circumstances
Such worries are reflected in the bond market, a notable feature of which is the phenomenon of credit stratification in housing enterprise bond financing.
Data show that in the first half of 2019, the proportion of AAA real estate enterprises reached 58%, and the issuance rate of AA, AA + grade real estate bonds was much higher than AAA grade real estate bonds. By contrast, AA-class Housing Bonds account for a larger proportion between 2015 and 2016.
According to the 21st Century Economic Reporter, only one of the 15 real estate company bonds issued since August to August 13 was rated AA, while eight were rated AAA, and the other six were AA+grade.
For example, the listed real estate enterprise Jiande shares (600153.SH), the company has just issued a short-term financing bond of 800 million yuan, with a one-year term, coupon interest rate of 3.38%, and the companys main rating is AAA.
At present, there are two characteristics of Housing enterprises issuing bonds. On the one hand, the top 50 large real estate companies can issue bonds smoothly, but the small and medium-sized Housing enterprises are not good at selling bonds. That is to say, the credit stratification is more obvious. On the other hand, for the more radical housing enterprises, they are now basically restricted to issuing bonds through them. Financing. Fan Wei expressed.
Data show that in the first half of 2019, the issuance of credit bonds by housing enterprises was 210.06 billion yuan, and the issuance increased by about 50 billion yuan year on year. Although issuance has recovered, overall net financing has declined as bond repayments have increased.
Tianfeng Securities Research points out that the small amount of net financing of enterprises is related to the credit qualification of enterprises, such as low rating, on the one hand, and the current development of enterprises themselves on the other hand. Among the enterprises with the lowest net financing, most of them have AA and AA + credit ratings except Vanke and Huarun Land. Most of them have more negative news, worsening business conditions or higher external guarantee liabilities.
Controllable influence of leading enterprises
However, although the tightening of real estate financing has affected market sentiment in policy, some institutional people are still optimistic about the large leading housing enterprises.
For large and medium-sized housing enterprises, the impact is small, for small housing enterprises, there may be greater risk. A credit critic of a private equity firm in Beijing said.
The project manager of a trust company thinks that the real estate scale of the trust company at the end of September under the guidance of the current window should not exceed the scale at the end of June, so the real estate trust financing must be greatly affected. Although the special inspection of the banks real estate business did not directly point to the open market bond issuance, but in the case of tightening trust, bank loans and other policies, real estate companies will inevitably suffer according to the regulatory thinking.
Domestic debt financing constraints are mainly targeted at some of the more radical real estate owners in the first half of the year. From the recent domestic debt net financing data, in July, the net financing volume of middle and high-level real estate main body increased significantly, and the overall pressure of middle and high-level is not big. Meng Xiangjuan said.
The investment director of a large public offering fund in Beijing said, Now all aspects of real estate financing have been tightened, and some small real estate companies will certainly not be able to sustain. After these real estate companies leave, there will be some leading real estate companies to divide up the business, so there will be a leading concentration of the market.
Therefore, in terms of allocation, the attraction of leading real estate is still there, and its risk is still controllable.
The next step is to increase the concentration of financing, the next step is to increase the concentration of land, the next step is to increase the concentration of sales, and finally the concentration of profits, all of which are in such a rhythm. Therefore, although the current market environment changes, but the leading real estate shares still have a certain attraction. The investment director mentioned above pointed out.