In an interview with Securities Daily, Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that in the first half of the year, the sustained decline in the growth rate of housing loans was mainly affected by two factors: one was the weak growth rate of overall housing loans caused by stagnant sales; the other was the strengthening of supervision on real estate funds, although mainly concentrated in the first half. But it also has an indirect impact on the scale of housing loans. Especially after the Xiaoyangchun in the first half of the real estate market, the interest rates of housing loans in different regions have increased to different degrees, which also has a side effect on the growth of housing loans.
Specifically, as of the end of June, the balance of real estate loans accounted for 28.7% of all loans. Among them, the balance of personal housing loans was 28.06 trillion yuan, up 17.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of March; the balance of housing development loans was 8.12 trillion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from the end of March; the balance of real estate development loans was 1.37 trillion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, down from the end of March. Less than 0.1 percentage point.
The decline in the rate of mortgage growth may also be related to the rapid increase in household leverage in the first quarter, resulting in limited space for further improvement. Li He, a researcher at the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China, said in an interview with the Securities Daily.
It is worth noting that in the second quarter report issued by the central bank, the reporter of Securities Daily noticed that compared with the first quarter, 55 words were added to express the policy ideas of the next stage of the real estate market. That is to say, according to the basic principle of implementing measures according to the city, we should adhere to the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, implement the long-term management mechanism of real estate, and not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy.
In fact, this is also the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30, which proposed that real estate should not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, after which the regulatory authorities once again voted.
Li He said that from the policy content introduced in the second half of the year, the supervision of real estate funds by the regulatory authorities has shown an upward trend. It is expected that the growth rate of housing loans will continue to slow down in the coming months under the background of tightening regulation of the real estate market, rising interest rates on housing loans and weak real estate sales. At the same time, with the increase of housing enterprises, the growth rate of housing loans will continue to slow down in the coming months. The real estate market is expected to return to the cooling trend in the second half of last year.