After the recent release of risk, the markets expectations of domestic policy, Sino-US differences and market liquidity have been fully adjusted to near the bottom. Expect to consolidate the market bottom and exchange time for space: patiently wait for the opening of fundamentals and liquidity space, so as to open a multi-window again. At present, it is still the best strategic allocation period of time for space. It is advisable to adjust warehouses rather than reduce warehouses.
Guotai Junan Securities: It is the freezing point of economic growth expectation, dawn is coming.
At present, the market is facing triple pessimism from near to far. Guotai Junan Securities believes that it is approaching the expected freezing point. The exchange rate depreciation weakens the elasticity of foreign capital outflow, superimposes the profit stabilization seemingly of Zhongdao, and reiterates the view of strategic allocation period on the eve of dawn.
From the perspective of market performance and exchange, investors generally have triple worries from near to far - trade frictions, geopolitics and economic bears. In the short run, the US propagandizes China as a currency manipulator, and the uncertainty of Sino-US trade frictions is still high; in the medium term, geo-events such as Japan, South Korea, India, Pakistan and Britains withdrawal from Europe weaken investor confidence; in the long run, the global economic downturn recedes, and multinational monetary policy appears preventive/passive easing, and the Chinese market may welcome it. To the real economic bear. The current time point is the key point for the intertwined fermentation of these three concerns. Volatility always returns, focusing on breaking the trend. In the long run, the rise and fall of the stock market has nothing to do with the level of economic growth, and is related to the change of growth expectation, which is the freezing point of economic growth expectation.
On the eve of dawn, catch the trend and pay attention to the inflection point of medium-term profit. Guotai Junan Securities believes that fear is limited, and we should pay attention to the profit recovery driven by credit repair. On the one hand, it is the guidance of financial institutionsfinancing, on the other hand, it is the follow-up of demand-side policy. Credit guidance will be more smooth under the demand environment. Looking back (6-12 months), we recommend two main lines: 1) Optimizing style. We should be optimistic about the new capital construction, communication, computer and other growth styles, and underestimate consumption of automobiles and household appliances. 2) Cheapness always generates benefits, taking into account the robustness and cost-effectiveness. Looking forward to low valuation, stable profitability of banks, non-bank.
Haitong Securities: Now is a good opportunity for the second wave of bull market growth
Investors are worried about the recent escalation of frictions between China and the United States, the breakdown of A shares and the lowest drop of the Shanghai Composite Index to 2733. Haitong Securities believes that the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index since 3288 points has come to an end. The decline caused by the escalation of trade friction between China and the United States has given the market a good opportunity to layout, and now it is a good opportunity for the second wave of bull market in layout.
(1) The recent decline of A-share is due to the repetition of noise in China and the United States. Essentially, the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index has not been completed since 3288. From the basic trend and technical form, it is at the end of the adjustment.
(2) The driving force of the second wave of bull market growth in the future: the stock cycle data validation fundamentals are bottomed out, and the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations in September have made positive progress or domestic policies have been promoted.
(3) The sharp drop caused by emotional panic is a good opportunity for the layout of the future, focusing on the medium-term, overmatching technology + securities firms, core assets as the basic allocation.
Huatai Securities: Prior to valuation, the allocation opportunities are becoming more and more obvious
Externally, pressure on trade relations has risen again, the RMB exchange rate has broken seven, and the US stock market has declined. Internally, economic data has not improved significantly, and A shares lack upward momentum in the short term. Huatai Securities believes that the impact of breaking the exchange rate of 7 on A shares depends on whether the current core pressure of A shares is at the valuation end or at the profit end. Compared with the 15-year 811 exchange rate reform and the rapid downward trend of market risk preference in May-June this year (the last round of Sino-US negotiations, the central bank announced the takeover of contractor banks), the current valuation of various indexes has reached a low in May-June, far below the 811 exchange rate reform period. From the perspective of Sino-US negotiation situation and fund positions, the market may still be under pressure of risk preference dimensionality reduction in the short term, but from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation, total liquidity and allocation, the allocation opportunities are becoming more and more obvious. We will continue to recommend technology stocks, optimize Huawei industrial chain and continue to pay attention to the automobile sector.
Guangfa Securities: A shares are at the bottom of the current earnings cycle
It is expected that the bottom of A-share earnings will not be later than the third quarter. In the medium-term allocation, the follow-up risk preference is difficult to increase substantially. However, the downward pressure of performance growth will decrease, and broad-spectrum interest rates will decline. The allocation will focus on the improvement of earnings. The experience of previous industry rotation before and after the bottom of earnings shows that: 1) policy certainty benefits improve earnings expectations; 2) its own high economic performance will rise rapidly; 3) the three directions of early earnings cycle are more likely to achieve significant excess returns. The strength comparison among the three is related to the rebound of profits and the intensity of policy stimulus.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Short-term and Long-term Market, Optimal Allocation of Gold Bonds
In the case of escalating trade conflicts, Chinas economy continues to decline, showing a typical recession characteristics, corporate earnings pressure. The decline in interest rates has become the most deterministic direction.
In the short run, CITICs recommended allocation order is gold (rare metals and precious metals)> treasury bonds > credit bonds > local currency > stocks > commodities. In the long run, the most difficult time is the starting point of the long-term bull market.
From the perspective of industry allocation, suggestions are given from the perspective of medium-sized comparison. First of all, we should give priority to the allocation of gold plates, and then the supply of pigs and cobalt plates which are in short supply. Third, in the process of interest rate decline, the plate with high dividends represented by banks is also worth configuring. Fourthly, the core technology of continuous improvement of profitability also deserves long-term adherence.
Everbright Securities: Foreign investors need not worry too much and wait patiently
This week, the A-share market continued to adjust sharply because of the breaking 7 of the RMB exchange rate and the USs inclusion of China as a currency manipulator. However, considering the macro-financial situation, there is limited room for RMB to continue to depreciate, and the US has implemented a series of tariff measures, which are expected to have no more substantial impact within one year when included in the exchange rate manipulating countries, so it is not appropriate to over-interpret foreign aggression.
The net outflow of foreign capital in recent years is better than in April and May. MSCIs incorporation into the A-share factor is raised on schedule, which can allay the concern of disruption of foreign capital inflows. At present, market valuation has been at a very reasonable level, half of the industrys PB is below 10% valuation quantile, Shanghai Stock Exchange near 2700 points is recommended to wait patiently for the bottom grinding period, evenly increase the warehouse, short-term overshoot in the future will be rehabilitated valuation, picking up bargains at the bottom is better than after the situation is completely clear. Moreover, the upgrade of the big game will catalyze the readjustment of the policy. This week, the reduction of the interest rate of transfer financing and the adjustment of the two-way finance policy are the proof of this logic, while the weaker situation will result in the loosening of the corresponding policy.
Although the global market is inevitably disturbed by fluctuations in Sino-US relations, the mainstream direction is still a better economic situation and more restrained monetary policy support for a relatively strong dollar. The return of funds to US dollar assets, especially consolidated assets, has continued to put pressure on emerging markets with large gains in Europe, Japan and the previous period. As for American stocks, structural imbalance is an important potential risk for American stocks in the future, but the short-term risk can be controlled by the support of low interest rates and capital inflows. As for Hong Kong stocks, the margin of security in the major cities has increased significantly. Structurally, buy-back opportunities for consumer white horses deserve attention. Hong Kongs defensive blue-chip security margin is insufficient. The valuation of the Chinese-funded banking sector is close to the lowest in history, and long-term investment opportunities are once again emerging.
Anxin Securities: The market is at the bottom, which is the golden time for the distribution of high-quality assets.
Anxin Securities believes that a series of recent external events have greatly affected the risk preference of A-share market. Short-term market may need some time to shock and digest, but in the medium term, with a positive attitude, investorsexpectations have been at a low level, the market is basically at the bottom of the region, and economic resilience will be strong in the future. Liquidity is abundant, policy will continue to optimize and exert strength on the supply side, maintain the tone of real estate regulation and break the rigid exchange rate are conducive to the medium-term development of capital market. When investors get out of pessimism and see positive factors, A-share market will also experience the concussion of this stage, and it is expected to usher in a new round of rising market. u3002
Therefore, from a medium-term perspective, Anxin Securities believes that the latest stage is also the golden time for the layout of high-quality assets. Industry configuration focuses on securities dealers, military industry, communications, electronics, computers, automobiles, etc. Structural main line suggests that attention should be paid to comparable mapping company of science and technology innovation board, China Daily Over-expectation Company, state-owned enterprise reform, new area of Shanghai Free Trade Zone, etc.
Xingye Securities: Beware of the Autumn Tiger
The short-term market pressure of Three Big Mountains is still on. The new normal of Sino-US relations continues to ferment. The so-called exchange rate manipulators and repeated negotiations have suppressed market sentiment. Societe Generale Securities has mentioned that the all-round restrictions on Sino-US relations in 201H2, ranging from economic and trade fields to science and technology, national defense and security, are one of the major market risk factors in the second half of the year. And the August monthly report said that summer should be a summer resort, looking for cool places, to be cautious about the market. In addition, the two mountains of liquidity/credit tightening brought about by financial supply-side reform and the impact of high real estate policy on the industrial chain may also cause pressure on the market at different stages.
Import chain, real estate chain and PPI entered negative range, and the downward pressure of fundamentals and mid-term performance was highlighted. Sino-US trade frictions are deepening, and tariff effects are gradually reflected in the three tables of enterprises in 201H2 and 2020. Secondly, the recent tightening of real estate financing channels, PPI also entered the negative range, and the real estate chain, the industry with a high degree of PPI correlation in the whole A non-financial income, earnings accounted for a larger proportion. Such negative impact will exert pressure on the cash flow statement of related industrial chain companies, and then affect the profit statement.
Gold Securities: A shares are still not eligible for a rebound
As the market enters August, trade negotiations between China and the United States resume their twists and turns. The imposition of tariffs between China and the United States will have a recessionary impact on the world economy, and will have a certain impact on corporate profits. The renewed tension in Sino-US trade relations will inhibit the rise of global risk preferences.
In the short term, there is no sign of shaking hands and reaching substantive agreement, market risk preference is still restricted, A-share index is in the repeated bottom-grinding stage, and market defensive sentiment is still heavy; moreover, the current A-share situation shows a net reduction. Since the beginning of August, the secondary market of A-share major shareholders has been reduced by about 2.46 billion. Especially for the very poor stocks or the stocks with excessive growth, there is a large net reduction.
As a result, Guojin Securities expects that the conditions for the A-share rebound are still not available, investors still need to be defensive in their operations, waiting for the day; in the medium and long term, the world is in a new round of monetary easing cycle, after digesting short-term external demand uncertainties, the A-share index can be expected to rise in the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter.
Bank of China International Securities: Low Valuation Defense, Attention to Performance Certainty
It is expected that uncertainties will continue to be the dominant factor affecting market risk preference. Under the pressure of risk preference, profit certainty will become the main direction of market capital pursuit. By analogy with the structural performance of the market under the impact of previous risk events, the large financial sector and the essential consumption sector have become the first choice of funds.
In terms of industry allocation, the preferred strategy is to make the ratio of gold to copper, while the defensive strategy of low beta and low valuation is still the choice to obtain stable returns. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of low valuation and high dividend for real estate and bank leaders, and at the same time, to grasp the growth potential of high dividend due to the lower cost of power sector. Consumption and medicine sectors can focus on the vaccine industry, which is continuously approved for listing of heavy varieties and rapidly expanding, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors in the post-inflation cycle. The growth plate layout needs to pay attention to performance certainty and logical realizability.
Source: China Responsible Editor of Securities Dealers: Yang Bin_NF4368