The companys products include not only fresh soybean products (such as tofu, 1000 sheets, vegetable chicken), but also soybean vegetable protein drinks (self-contained bags of soybean milk, etc.), leisure soybean products (leisure dried beans, etc.) and other types (such as curd, bean sprouts, gluten), which seem to have a very rich product line. But in fact, fresh soybean products and soybean vegetable protein drinks are the main revenue carriers, accounting for more than 55% and 20% respectively in recent years.
Looking at the performance of Zuming shares in recent years, we can find that the net profit growth rate of Zuming shares in recent years far exceeds the growth rate of revenue (except 2017). From 2016 to 2018, the revenue of Zuming shares reached 850 million yuan, 860 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively. The growth rate reached 623%, 145% and 885%, while the net profit returned to the mother was 37.5% in the same period. The growth rates of 0.03 million yuan, 41.49 million yuan and 63.94 million yuan reached 53.46%, 9.63% and 54.12% respectively.
As for the problem that the growth rate of net profit is obviously higher than the growth rate of revenue, Zuming shares said in the prospectus: The increase of net profit level of issuer is greater than that of business income. The main reason is that the gross profit rate of issuers products is higher, and the comprehensive gross interest rate keeps rising, and the growth of business income brings about a greater increase in net profit. Long. This explains that the company believes that net profit growth is much faster than revenue growth because of the increase in gross interest rates. According to the data disclosed in the prospectus, the gross profit rate of Zuming stock from 2016 to 2018 was 32.17%, 34.25% and 37.52%, respectively, which increased by 5 percentage points in three years.
Further analysis of the main reasons for the sustained growth of gross profit rate of ancestral shares in recent years shows that this is closely related to the continuous improvement of sales unit price of each product. According to the prospectus, in 2017 and 2018, the unit price of tofu, 1000 Zhang, vegetable chicken and dried tofu increased by about 4% annually, and the price of vegetable protein beverage increased by about 1% in these two years. However, it is noteworthy that these price increases not only occurred in the case of rising raw materials and other costs, even in 2018, when the prices of raw materials fell, the products of Zuming shares are still in the process of price increases. According to the prospectus, the unit price of soybeans, self-supporting bags, sugar, soybean oil and other major raw materials declined in 2018. The unit price of soybeans, the most important raw material, fell by 6%, from 4 yuan/kg in 2017 to 3.76 yuan/kg.
In theory, the increase of unit price is conducive to the companys profit margin, but for food companies with lower unit price such as Zuming shares, does the continuous price increase affect their market competitiveness? Moreover, it is uncertain whether there will be a higher price increase in the future for low-end fast-food, because it does not have the properties of scarcity and luxury.
Another question is whether the revenue of the ancestral shares can continue to grow. We should know that Zuming stock is a regional food company. The sales share of products in Zhejiang area is more than 60%, and the total sales share of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is about 95%. Such a high proportion means that the company has limited room for further growth in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which requires the company to expand to the outside world, but whether it can go out is uncertain. More importantly, according to its prospectus, the company does not have much intention to open up new markets, but seems to continue to repeat the story of yesterday. According to the prospectus, Zuming shares will raise 427 million yuan, of which 361 million yuan will be used to construct the technical transformation project of the production line of fresh soybean products with an annual output of 80,000 tons, and 65.22 million yuan will be used to upgrade the research and development and testing center of soybean products. Judging from the name of the project, the fund-raising of Zuming shares will still focus on the production side. It has not focused on terminal development such as sales channels, publicity and promotion.
It is noteworthy that the technological transformation project of this production line is still in Zhejiang Province. Fresh soybean products have a short shelf life and should not be too far away from the production line and the place of sale. This means that the heavy-gold transformation of the production line still serves the saturated Zhejiang market. The problem is that if more 80,000 tons of fresh soybean products are produced. Can the market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai digest such a large output of fresh soybean products?
With the continuous growth of inventory, ancestral shares are facing more and more pressure to repay their debts. In 2018, the companys asset-liability ratio reached 58%, while the average of Listed Companies in the same industry was only 37%. Short-term loans in 2018 amounted to 238 million yuan, non-current liabilities due in one year amounted to 113 million yuan, while monetary funds in the same period amounted to only 113 million yuan. In this case, ancestral shares should be more vigorous to promote sales and consume inventory, rather than depositing more funds into heavy fixed assets such as production lines, which seems not a good thing to maintain a healthy level of capital chain.
In addition, it should be noted that although the companys gross profit rate has increased in recent years, the growth rate of net profit in 2017 has decreased significantly, only 9.63%, which is quite different from the growth rate of more than 50% in other years. The reporter of Red Week checked the operating costs and three fees in 2017 and found that there was no big fluctuation. Among them, the operating costs increased by only 0.8% year-on-year, and the three fees all declined year-on-year. However, under such circumstances, the net profit growth rate of its home owner suddenly decreased by 40 percentage points. Such abnormal changes are indeed somewhat impressive. To be puzzled.
Suspect of Increasing False Income
In addition to the above problems, Red Weekly reporters accounting for the revenue data of ancestral shares in 2017 and 2018, found that it is suspected of false income.
According to the prospectus, the operating income of ancestral shares in 2017 and 2018 was 863 million yuan and 939 million yuan respectively, of which domestic revenue was 857 million yuan and 932 million yuan respectively. If the effect of 17% domestic value-added tax rate was taken into account, the total tax revenue of ancestral shares in 2017 and 2018 would be about 1.08 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan respectively.
By checking the data of tax revenue and cash income in the past two years, we can find that tax revenue in 2017 and 2018 is 57.9826 million yuan and 50.7655 million yuan more than cash income, respectively. In theory, there will be a large number of new claims in 2017 and 2018, that is, the receivables in assets and liabilities should be added 57.9826 million yuan and 50.7655 million yuan.
Where did the extra cash go?
In addition to the abnormal revenue data, Red Week reporters found that the procurement data in the ancestral share prospectus is also doubtful.
In 2017 and 2018, the purchasing amount of Zuming stock to the top five suppliers was 2.16 billion yuan and 135 million yuan, accounting for 39.04% and 32.01% of the total purchasing amount, respectively. From this, it is estimated that the total purchasing amount of Zuming stock in 2017 and 2018 was 411 million yuan and 422 million yuan. If the effect of 17% VAT rate is taken into account, the total purchasing amount with tax in these two years will be about 10%. 480 million yuan and 494 million yuan.
In the cash flow tables of 2017 and 2018, the companys cash for purchasing goods and receiving services amounted to 562 million yuan and 564 million yuan, excluding the impact of the additional 719 million yuan and -26.975 million yuan of the current years advance payments, and the cash expenditure related to purchasing reached 561 million yuan and 566 million yuan, respectively. If we check the tax-containing purchasing and cash expenditure, we can find that in 2017 and 2018, cash expenditure is 81.0146 million yuan and 72.373 million yuan more than the tax-containing purchasing amount. In theory, this would lead to a corresponding reduction in the current years payables.
In fact, the payables of ancestral shares in 2017 and 2018 were 64.0616 million yuan and 81.4595 million yuan respectively, which increased by 5.2373 million yuan and 16.8579 million yuan, respectively, compared with the end of the previous year. Obviously, this new amount does not match the amount that should be reduced in theory. There are differences between 86.2519 million yuan and 89.2309 million yuan.
In addition, it is worth noting that the purchase data of Zuming shares are different in the annual reports disclosed in the prospectus and the new third board period. For example, the prospectus shows that the purchase amount of Zuming shares to the top five suppliers in 2016 and 2017 is 187 million yuan and 160 million yuan, compared with 213 million yuan in the corresponding annual reports. And 185 million yuan. In addition, the prospectus and previous annual reports also have many different data of the same project, which make people doubt the authenticity of its financial data.
Unknown Soybean Stock
Although Zuming shares did not disclose the detailed composition of operating costs in the prospectus, the reporter of Red Weekly looked through the annual report of 2017 published when it was listed on the new third board and found that the company had said in the annual report that soybean is the main raw material for the production of the companys products, accounting for about 30% of the production cost, if reported annually. According to dews ratio, the cost of soybean is about 91.022 million yuan out of the 303 million yuan operating cost of ancestral shares in 2017.
According to the list of raw materials purchased in the prospectus, the purchasing amount of soybeans in 2017 is 204 million yuan. There is a difference of 113 million yuan between the purchasing amount of soybeans and the consumption amount of soybeans in the operating cost. That is to say, in 2017, at least 113 million yuan of raw materials of soybeans should be added (soybeans are a kind of soybeans, actually). Perhaps the proportion of soybeans in operating costs is slightly less than 30%, so the new stock of soybean raw materials will be larger. In fact, the book value of all inventories disclosed in the prospectus increased by only 77.605 million yuan in 2017, and the book value of all inventories totaled 54.7173 million yuan, which means that it is impossible to add 113 million yuan to a single soybean raw material. Such clearly contradictory inventory data are puzzling. So, did Zuming stock buy so many soybeans in 2017? Is the actual operating cost of soybeans more than the amount on the books? Or is it that the company is in unsalable condition and hides a lot of inventory? More explanations are needed for the abnormal situation. Source: Yang Qian_NF4425, Responsible Editor of Stock Market Weekly
According to the list of raw materials purchased in the prospectus, the purchasing amount of soybeans in 2017 is 204 million yuan. There is a difference of 113 million yuan between the purchasing amount of soybeans and the consumption amount of soybeans in the operating cost. That is to say, in 2017, at least 113 million yuan of raw materials of soybeans should be added (soybeans are a kind of soybeans, actually). Perhaps the proportion of soybeans in operating costs is slightly less than 30%, so the new stock of soybean raw materials will be larger. In fact, the book value of all inventories disclosed in the prospectus increased by only 77.605 million yuan in 2017, and the book value of all inventories totaled 54.7173 million yuan, which means that it is impossible to add 113 million yuan to a single soybean raw material.
Such clearly contradictory inventory data are puzzling. So, did Zuming stock buy so many soybeans in 2017? Is the actual operating cost of soybeans more than the amount on the books? Or is it that the company is in unsalable condition and hides a lot of inventory? More explanations are needed for the abnormal situation.