As the new energy automobile industry is not yet mature, its preservation rate is not as good as that of fuel vehicles. However, according to the statistics of reporters from the Economic Observer, the trend of the new energy vehicle value preservation rate is not as stable as that of the fuel vehicle since this year, showing a downward trend. According to our reporters estimate, in 2018, the average hedging rate of the top 10 new energy vehicles reached 44.14%. After several months of decline in the first half of this year, this value dropped to 37.7% in July.
The hedging rate reflects the comprehensive product strength and brand awareness of the vehicle model, and has important reference significance for the car enterprises to formulate replacement policy, financing leasing policy and new car price. At present, China Automobile Circulation Association jointly with Beijing Precision Assessment Information Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Precision Assessment) has issued the second-hand car preservation rate, the latter adopts the method of calculation: second-hand car price/new car price.
Based on the analysis of the two indicators in the formula, Cui Huan, Vice President of Market Precision Estimation, told the Economic Observer that the main reasons for the decline in the value preservation rate of second-hand cars for new energy in July were as follows: first, the process of switching from Guowu to Guoliu resulted in the reduction of the price of new cars at the end, and then the reduction of the price of second-hand cars; second, the recent purchase by consumers. Vehicles are sensitive to price. The price reduction of new cars makes them have good negotiation conditions in the hovering stage between new cars and used cars.
The price of new energy vehicles is still high, and the users expected life cycle is much higher than the replacement cycle; when new vehicles are delivered, the residual value management should be advanced. China Automobile Circulation Association recommended in the automobile preservation rate report.
Behind the Low Preservation Rate
Data show that in the first half of this year, Chinas automobile sales were 12.323 million vehicles, down 12.4% from the same period last year; sales of new energy vehicles reached 617,000 vehicles, up 49.6% from the same period last year. Industry insiders believe that the second-hand car sales in the first half of this year totaled 6.862 million, up 2.93% from the year before, due to the favorable policies such as abolishing restrictions on the relocation of used cars and the effect of the five-country-six-country-switching action. Among them, the second-hand vehicles of new energy also achieved a 66% high growth, with sales of 570,000 vehicles.
However, in the second-hand car preservation rate, the new energy vehicles failed to keep up with the overall pace of the car market. According to the statistics of the reporter of Economic Observer, the average value preservation rate of the joint venture brand used cars (including new energy vehicles, but negligible due to the small proportion) ranked in the top ten enterprises, from March to July, was 64.67%, 66.47%, 66.58%, 66.46%, 65.67%, and the corresponding value changes of independent brands were 57.9%, 5.67%, respectively. 8.21%, 58.97%, 59.02%, 58.66%. It can be seen that, whether joint venture or self-owned brand, the second-hand car preservation rate showed steady growth from March to July this year.
New energy vehicles, however, present a different picture. According to the statistics of the reporters of Economic Observer, the average preservation rate of the first ten used cars of new energy in the same period is 39.86%, 39.54%, 38.52%, 38.57%, 37.7%, which shows a downward trend. Specifically, the structure of the top ten new energy used car models is very stable. During the period, no new car models entered. The top ten models ranked in the average value preservation rate are Tesla MODELS, BYD Tang DM, BMW 5-series PHEV, Rongwei e550, BYD Qin, BYD i3, BYD e6, Tengzi, Qichengfeng and Jianghuai Iev. From the power type point of view, while the plug-in hybrid is still strong, the preservation rate of pure electric vehicles has also been improved. Brand, Tesla maintains the championship advantage, BYD has the largest number of cars in the top 10, while BMW has achieved the lead in luxury brands.
At the same time, the decline of the value preservation rate of new energy used cars is also directly related to the downturn of trading volume. Economic Observer reporter browsed the official website of used cars of melon seeds and found that only 77 electric cars were sold, while 45131 petrol cars were sold. On Youxin Second-hand Vehicle Official Website, the number of electric vehicles on sale is even 0. There are also electric cars on the market, a little more than before. Beijing Huaxiang used car market staff told the Economic Observer reporter.
When the reporter asked the platform whether he could buy the new energy used car as a car owner, the second-hand car of melon seeds gave a specific plan, and said that it could pass 259 tests to evaluate the car body on the door, while the call of the receiving business of Youxin used car could not be connected. Huaxiang used car market staff told reporters that generally speaking, the willingness of car dealers to buy new energy used cars is relatively low, if there is demand for car sales, you can go to the scene to participate in car shooting, both sides feel that the price is appropriate to conclude the transaction. When the reporters called BYD, Beiqi New Energy and other 4S stores to inquire about their purchase of new energy used cars, the other side said they only accept replacement purchase.
The circulation of new energy used cars is very small at present. First, there are not many cars listed in the early stage. Second, there is a lack of sales channels and evaluation channels. Cui told the Economic Observer that the traditional offline approach is to collect cars upstream when the car dealer learns that consumers want to buy new energy used cars. Mainly because of the small volume and uncertain price, the car dealers dare not press the car.
Residual Value Management Needs Breakthrough
Chinas new energy automobile industry has entered the era of post-subsidy, and foreign brands have accelerated product distribution. In addition, in the upstream and middle of the new energy automobile industry chain, the white list of batteries just abolished by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will lead to more intense shuffling of new energy automobiles. With the continuous introduction of new products, plug-in hybrid and pure electric used cars are difficult to preserve value. This feature is similar to that of electronic products and will continue. China Automobile Circulation Association pointed out in the value preservation rate report. Taking the consumer confidence crisis caused by Xiaopeng automobile product upgrading as an example, the association points out that manufacturers are facing new challenges in the management of residual value of new energy vehicles. The terminal price controlled by distributors in the past exposes disadvantages under the direct selling mode.
Many automobile companies have opened up their business layout around used cars in the traditional field of fuel vehicles, but there is a lack of relevant layout in the field of new energy vehicles. China Automobile Circulation Association said that the first batch of new energy vehicles listed in 2013 has entered the replacement cycle, the market is in urgent need of replacement, and the output of relevant residual value assessment and standards is therefore very urgent. If the residual value of new energy used cars is low, it will damage the brand image; if used properly, it can tie up innovative formats such as financial services, financial leasing, and bring new profit opportunities for automobile enterprises. It considers that the residual value management of new energy vehicles must be guided by the manufacturer due to the influence of the testing requirements and pricing of the three-power system, and gives some suggestions on the residual value management, such as the new circulation channel of used vehicles, the evaluation of vehicle residual value through big data, and the recovery of power batteries with suppliers.
At present, Yundu Automobile, Beiqi New Energy and other enterprises have launched repurchase, replacement, disguised financing lease and other businesses to explore the residual value management model of new energy vehicles. For example, in 2018, Beiqi New Energy launched the Rent and Sale business. Consumers can rent and sell the whole vehicle using right by leasing or buying out. The minimum rent is only 55 yuan per day, 0 down payment and 0 service fee. They can also enjoy the services of licensing, three-year insurance, extension and so on. However, the new energy used car finance is still limited by the establishment and improvement of its evaluation system. The second-hand car financial data analyst of a domestic automobile company told the Economic Observer that his automobile company began to lay out the second-hand car financial business this year, but only for traditional fuel vehicles. The preservation rate of new energy vehicles is too poor, and the cost of battery replacement and maintenance is too high in the later period. At present, no financial company dares to make new energy used cars. For the second-hand car and used car financial industry, new energy vehicles are prohibited. He said.
The residual value and valuation of new energy used cars have always been a pain point in the industry. The automobile preservation rate is influenced by many factors, such as brand, price, market quantity, vehicle age, mileage and vehicle condition, among which the decline of battery is the key. The Secretary-General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technological Innovation Alliance and the chairman of Battery 100 Association told Economic Observer that the power exchange mode adopted by Beiqi, Weilai and other enterprises can solve the problem to a certain extent, but it is difficult to popularize it in an all-round way because of the different models of various automobile enterprises and battery suppliers; while China Tower and Biya The step-by-step utilization of power batteries laid out by Di, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other enterprises also has a long way to go.
At the same time, national policies and industry associations accelerate the improvement of residual value management of new energy vehicles. At the beginning of this year, the new regulation of three packages of automobiles was revised to stipulate the three packages of responsibility for the main parts of household electric vehicles. It mentioned that manufacturers were required to express the discharge capacity attenuation limits of power storage batteries and the corresponding test methods on the three packs of vouchers. Industry insiders believe that this is of great significance for the residual value management of new energy vehicles. However, Yu expressed concern to reporters of the Economic Observer, This is more difficult, the use of vehicles in different environments, standards are dynamic. It can be stipulated, but its hard for anyone to do it. At the level of industry associations, since 2018, China Automobile Circulation Association has strengthened the promotion of the formulation of the group standard of Technical Specification for the Identification and Evaluation of Used Vehicles for New Energy Passengers. It is known that the preliminary draft has been basically completed.
Source: Responsible Editor of Economic Observation Network: Wang Xiaowu_NF