When does the risk of entering the market become smaller from hot to stable?

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 When does the risk of entering the market become smaller from hot to stable?


July 24 is the third day of the opening of the company. After the first days general rise and the second days correction, the third days stock market returned to full-line rise, trading activity remained downward trend, we can see that the market has gradually returned to calm from fanaticism.

The first five days of Kechuang board will be open to limit the rise and fall, and from next week, it will enter a 20% limit on the rise and fall. Some experts suggest that individual investors, in the first five days of entry risk is greater, try not to catch up with the ups and downs, perhaps the sixth day of re-entry risk will be smaller.

Amplitude narrowing and turnover rate decreasing

The market of Kechuang board changed greatly in the first three days. On the first day of opening, the average increase of 25 stocks was 139.55%, and the lowest increase was more than 80%. On the second day, only four stocks rose, the highest of which was only 14.24%. The remaining 21 stocks fell in varying degrees. On the third day, the general increase resumed, but the increase was significantly lower than that on the first day, with an average increase of 11.39%.

As of July 24 closing, 25 KSCM stocks were up, and 8 stocks were up more than 10%. Fuguang shares rose 49.36%, the highest in the market was more than 50%, closing at 81.40 yuan, followed by Walder, up 34.76%, closing at 70.33 yuan, and traffic control technology rose 26.32%, closing at 43.20 yuan. In addition, Platinum, Guangfeng Technology, Hanchuan Intelligence, Tianyi Shangjia, Aerospace Macro 5 stocks rose more than 10%. The smallest increase in Chinas currency, up 1.90%, closed at 10.20 yuan.

From the point of view of Andiji Technologies, which has the highest share price at present, the stock price has also experienced ups and downs in the first three days. On the first day, Andiji Technologies rose the most, up 400.15%. On the second day, it fell 8.81%. On the third day, Andiji Technologies rose 2.38%. As of the closing day of the 24th, four of the 25 shares in Kechuang board had reached 100 yuan, which were 183.00 yuan for Andiji Science and Technology, 162.10 yuan for Lexin Science and Technology, 155.35 yuan for Cardiovascular Medicine and 128.58 yuan for Nanwei Medicine.

Since the second day of the opening of the market, the share price of Kechuang stock has gradually stabilized. On the third day, Kechuang stock has maintained this trend. Except for Fukuang stock, Walder stock and Trading Technology stock, the amplitudes of the other 22 stocks are all below 20%.

In terms of turnover rate, on the first day of the market, the turnover rate of 25 stocks exceeded 65%, up to 86.19%, and the average turnover rate on the first day reached 78%. On the second day, the overall turnover rate was below 60%, but most of them were above 30%. On the third day, the average turnover rate was 38.30%, and the turnover rate of 8 stocks was below 30%. On the 24th, the turnover rate of only three stocks exceeded 50%, namely Fukuang, Wald and Platinum. The lowest turnover rate was China Unicom, 26.28%.

In terms of transaction amount, on the 24th, the total turnover of 25 stocks in Kechuangban was 22.748 billion yuan, which was basically the same as the total turnover on the 23rd, with a slight drop of 0.5 billion yuan. On the first day of the market, the total turnover was 48.58 billion yuan, and the turnover fell more than 50%.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said that before the end of the first five trading days, the wide volatility of individual stocks would continue, and the fluctuations of stock prices, turnover and other indicators would be normal. After entering the sixth trading day, the volatility of individual stocks is expected to narrow, the turnover rate will decrease dramatically, and the volume will shrink to about 10 billion.

For the future market trend of Kechuang Stock Exchange, Fu Lichun, director of Northeast Securities Research, believes that in the short term, due to the highest increase on the first day, the next 2-5 trading days are still expected to be relatively active, but the level of activity may be lower than the first day, and the stock price will also tend to rational pricing. In the medium term, the volatility range will gradually narrow. With more new shares listed, the market will become more mature, and there will be more rational pricing. The differentiation of individual stocks will become more obvious. In the long run, with the increase of new stocks and the subsequent restrictions on the rise and fall, the scientific creation board market will gradually return to a more rational level, and the stock index will return to a more rational level.

Some experts say not to chase up the rise and kill the fall.

Investorsmentality is different under the fluctuation of the market of science and technology innovation board. For investors who are involved in new ventures, selling at a higher price on the first day may be the best choice.

A shareholder of Hanchuan Intelligence who won a signature in Daxin said that she sold 300 shares on the first day of opening and the remaining 200 shares near the end of the third day, with an overall profit of 7033 yuan. The issue price of Hanchuan Intelligence was 25.79 yuan, up 94.61% on the first day of opening, closing at 50.19 yuan, down 11.44% on the second day, closing at 44.45 yuan, and up 14.11% on the third day, closing at 50.72 yuan. As for the reasons for clearing, she said that she was not optimistic about the future market. The valuation is too high now, wait for the return to normal value, and then see the dynamic development before deciding whether to invest.

For those investors who did not participate in the new market or did not win the lottery, the first five days without the limit of price increase or decline in KIB would be a test of investorsidentification and adaptability. A shareholder who bought thousands of yuan of Fangbang shares on the first day of the opening of the market has lost money. Fangbang shares closed at 96.42 yuan on the 24th, up 7.71%, but still fell from the first day, the highest price reached 136.49 yuan on the first day, closing at 101.10 yuan. It doesnt matter on the first day. If you cant get it out anyway, you will watch it roll up and down. Its exciting. The next day, you will stare at it all the time. You are very tired. Whether its time to withdraw or not. Its not like investing in futures. Its like speculating in futures. Its like worrying about being liquidated all the time. Its like playing games. Its testing your endurance.

Dong Dengxin suggested that investors, especially retail investors, should not blindly pursue the increase within the first five trading days without the limit of the rise and fall. After the sixth trading day, after the stock price value center is generally determined, the possible relative risk of re-entry is smaller.

Fu Lichun, Director of Northeast Securities Research, said that the demand for professionalism is very high, which includes technical analysis, band operation and wind control capabilities. Therefore, we should take a more rational view of the pre-trading of KIB, control risks and not blindly follow the ups and downs. In the long run, if investors want to return to value investment or fundamental investment, they are not pursuing new or volatile returns, but the long-term value of enterprises, which requires in-depth study of the company. In particular, it should be noted that compared with the industry sector, the company itself is more important.

Yang Delong, the former chief economist of Shanghai Open Source Fund, suggests that investors who want to invest in the GEM market but will not choose a single share can buy the GEM fund and pay attention to the GEM index ETF, so as to avoid the risk of individual shares and share the profits of the whole sector.

After the opening of Kechuang board, the trend of other A shares also changed. On the 22nd, all three major A-share indexes fell, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27% and missed the 2900 threshold. On the 23rd, the three major stock indexes turned upward. On the 24th, the three major stock indexes kept rising. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.80%, returning to above 2900.

Yang Delong said that the trend of the market began to stabilize and recover gradually in the past two days, which shows that the market has fully digested the role of capital diversion of Kechuang board. It is short-term for the main board and SMEs to start trading, and the long-term market will gradually reach equilibrium.

Relevant news

Nearly half of the private-equity products purchased by the company are on the blacklist

On the evening of July 23, the China Securities Association issued a public announcement, deciding to list 29 private equity institutions, involving 139 products, which violated the regulations and oversubscribed the purchase of new shares in the company.

Many private-equity practitioners said that in order to obtain higher market value, the situation of over-subscription is widespread. At present, nearly 300 private-equity products have been purchased for new shares of Creative Board of Science and Technology, and about half of the products have entered the restricted list this time.

New stock market value of Forest Garden investment allocation is nearly 300 million

According to the list published by the China Securities Association, a total of 29 private equity institutions, involving 139 products, were included in the restricted list, including well-known private equity such as forest garden investment.

According to the statistics of Beijing News, Shenzhen Forestry Park has the largest number of over-subscribed products, up to 32; followed by Zhejiang Jiuzhang Assets, Shanghai Yingshui Investment and Shenzhen Red Chip Investment, the number of over-subscribed products is 23, 18 and 13, respectively.

From the allocation value, the new stock market value of forest park investment allocation is the highest, reaching 299 million yuan. Zhejiang Jiuzhang Assets and Shanghai Yingshui Investment were allocated with a market value of over 100 million yuan.

According to the announcement of the China Securities Association, the time limit for inclusion in the restricted list shall be calculated from the following day (working day) after the announcement of this announcement. All products are restricted on July 24, 2019. The first class products are limited for half a year and the first class products are limited for one year. Private equity, which limits the largest number of products in a year, includes Shenzhen Forestry Park Investment, Zhejiang Nine Chapters Assets and Shenzhen Red Chip Investment.

The number of private offerings and products blacklisted accounted for almost half of the total. In order to get a higher allocation, it was a common phenomenon to overbid, said one private equity practitioner. On July 24, according to Giant Tide information, 56 private equity firms and nearly 300 fund products participated in the bidding process for the GEM.

Earlier, it was reported that the excess share proceeds would be donated to public welfare organizations, which was confirmed by several private investors.

Will the disposal of illegal bidding share have an impact on the KJM market? According to one brokerage practitioner, the impact is minimal because the failed bidding will be allocated by the sponsor brokerage to call new investors online.

Experts recommend the use of entity funds for subscription

After the publication of the blacklist, the China Securities Investment Fund Association issued a public announcement saying that in the first batch of new stock issuance projects of CSIB, some private equity funds applied for over-product funds, violated the rules of allocation and sale of CSIB, and were subject to self-discipline by CSIB. The China Securities Investment Fund Association publicly condemns the above-mentioned illegal purchasing practices and supports the handling measures of the China Securities Association.

Dong Dengxin said that private offerings that oversubscribe and exceed their ability to pay with their own funds are likely to be unable to pay after winning the bid, or that if the market goes down, the private offerings that win the bid consider that the price is too high when subscribing for stocks, they may abandon the purchase. He believed that the market value allocation would bring risks, and suggested using entity funds to subscribe.

Nan Xiaopeng, secretary-general of Jiangsu Association of Finance Managers, believes that this punishment is beneficial to regulating the stock market. The system of new share purchase is conducive to hitting new institutional investors off-line. It is very difficult for retail investors to participate in the system. If they violate the rules and exceed the quota, it will be unfair to other market participants.

Source: Author of New Beijing News: Gu Zhijuan, responsible editor of Zhang Shuxin: Xiao Qi_NN6799