Consumption is expected to grow by about 8.5% in 2019, and final consumption expenditure is expected to drive economic growth by more than 75%.
It is worth mentioning that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 10 show that CPI rose by 2.7% in June 2019 from a year earlier, and is still at a relatively high level.
At present, the stocks of live pigs and fertile sows are still declining rapidly, and the cycle of pork price rising superimposes the impact of pig epidemic, which brings the pressure of CPI rising in stages. Rising pork prices may drive up prices of alternative foods such as beef, mutton and aquatic products.
With the weakening of price cyclical factors and the improvement of epidemic situation, the rise of pork prices may slow down relatively after the fourth quarter. In the second half of the year, CPI tail-warping factors weakened and prices rose. There is limited room for CPI to rise, and the annual increase may fall to 2% - 2.5%.
In addition, Lian Ping said that the global economy is facing three risks and needs to be given high attention.
Source: Yang Qian_NF4425, Responsible Editor of Economic Report in the 21st Century