At present, the easing expectations on one side are cooling down instantaneously, while on the other side, the U.S. economy is actually not strong, and non-farming can not show the whole picture - the high-frequency data of the U.S. economy frequently points to a slowdown in growth. The main index of the New York Federal Reserve Banks June survey of factories in New York State dropped 26.4 points to - 8.6, the lowest level since October 2016.
We value economic data more than the Federal Reserve, and we think its hard for U.S. stocks to keep climbing. Wilson pointed out that the Morgan Stanley Corporate Conditions Index, the largest monthly decline since 2002 in June, is closely related to ISM orders and corporate earnings revisions.
In addition to the pressure on U.S. stock earnings expectations, the Federal Reserve was expected to cut interest rates sharply to return funds to emerging markets, but the failure of the 50 BP interest rate cut expectations triggered a pullback in the Asia-Pacific market.
Northern capital is most sensitive to valuation
In addition to the impact of the Federal Reserves monetary policy, A shares were also affected by other short-term effects, with a net outflow of 2.6 billion yuan on Tuesday.
Concentrated issuance of new shares is one aspect. On July 22, the first listing ceremony of Kechuangban will be held. Up to July 4, 141 companies had accepted the application for listing and issued the first round of inquiry letters to 118 companies. The Board of Stock Listing of Kechuang Stock Company considered and approved the application for listing of 31 companies. Twenty-five companies had obtained approval from the SFC for registration. They were the first listed companies of Kechuang Stock Company.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its forecast on the financing scale and the number of listed entrepreneurs of Cosco in the second half of this year. It expects total financing to be 16.4 billion US dollars and 162 listed entrepreneurs, nearly double its previous forecast. However, Wang Bing, a stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, told reporters that the overall liquidity impact of Cosco issuance was limited, accounting for only 0.1% of the total market value of A shares and 19% of the turnover rate from the beginning of the year to today. GEM may be affected by short-term liquidity, accounting for 5.2% of the free circulation market value of GEM.
Although for foreign capital, once the long-term growth of enterprises is optimistic, high valuation of some stocks will not hinder buying, but more foreign capital lacks understanding of subdivided Chinese stocks, and valuation is also an important indicator.
Source: First Financial Responsibility Editor: Guo Chenqi_NBJ9931