Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Societe Generale Bank, told Securities Daily that in the food, tobacco and alcohol sub-item, the CPI of fresh fruit rose to a high of 42.7% year-on-year, the highest since 2007. Because of the high price elasticity of fruit consumption, the impact of fruit CPI on the overall CPI is limited. In addition, as temperatures rise and fresh fruit supply increases, fruit prices have begun to fall from high levels. Pork CPI rose 3.6% in June, and pork prices may continue to rise in the future.
Lu said that although CPI growth was still at a high level of 2.7% year-on-year, the core CPI excluding energy and food increased by only 1.6% year-on-year. In the long run, the trend of core CPI growth is more related to the trend of residentsincome growth than that of CPI growth. This shows that the core CPI can better reflect the change of purchasing power and depict the long-term trend of price changes. The current CPI growth rate more reflects the short-term impact of fluctuations in agricultural supply. In the long run, inflation pressure in consumer goods can be controlled.
In terms of ring ratio, PPI shows that the price of means of production increased by 0.2% from last month to decrease by 0.4%, and the price of means of livelihood increased by 0.1% from last month to be flat. From the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there are 18 rising prices, three less than last month; 17 falling prices, six more; 5 flat prices, three less. From a year-on-year perspective, the price of means of production increased by 0.6% from last month to decrease by 0.3%, while the price of means of subsistence rose by 0.9%, the same increase as last month. According to estimates, June was flat compared with the same period last year. The tail-warping effect of last years price changes and the impact of new price increases were about 0.3 percentage points and - 0.3 percentage points, respectively.
From the point of view of monetary policy, Deng Haiqing, president and chief economist of the Wall Street Institute of Public Information, said that the current tone is still not loose and tight. Since May, the central banks monetary policy has maintained a balance between steady growth and risk prevention, and adjusted in time according to the changes of domestic and foreign economic and financial situation, but the general direction of monetary policy has not been reversed.
Source: Liable Editor of Securities Daily: Yang Qian_NF4425