Evaporation of 1.7 trillion yuan in three days! Shock build-up or downward relay?

 Evaporation of 1.7 trillion yuan in three days! Shock build-up or downward relay?

After a sudden drop on Monday, the market continued to pull back. Todays Shanghai Index fell 0.44%, Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.35%, GEM Index fell 0.48%. Todays turnover continued to shrink to 331.4 billion yuan, the lowest level since February this year.

Volume keeps falling: bottom since February

Today, the turnover of the two cities is only 331.4 billion yuan, further shrinking on the basis of yesterdays downturn. It has also entered the lowest level of turnover since the general trend of increase in February this year.

Since February this year, except for the last trading day before the Spring Festival on February 1, the turnover of both cities has exceeded 300 billion yuan, the lowest being 31.5 billion yuan on February 11. In the last two trading days, the turnover of the two cities has frequently refreshed to a new low, constantly closing to the lowest level since February.

Today, Beishengs net outflow of capital is 1.638 billion yuan, of which Shanghai stock exchange net outflow is 1.637 billion yuan and Shenzhen stock exchange net outflow is 0.01 billion yuan. This is also the third consecutive day of net outflow of funds from Beisheng. Since this week, a net outflow of 7.864 billion yuan has been made.

Public and private equity firms:

Short-term lack of upward momentum in the market

Public Funds: Short-term lack of upward momentum, pay attention to risk prevention

China Merchants Fund believes that the recent sharp decline in A shares is mainly affected by multiple negative factors at the same time fermentation. First, Fridays announcement that the number of new non-farm workers in the United States in June was significantly better than expected, the market revised the Feds interest rate cut expectations, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds returned to more than 2%, and gold prices fell; second, this week will usher in 22 new shares of intensive bidding, which some investors fear may lead to stock market capital shortage. Third, the mid-term report season is approaching, and under the deterioration of the macro-situation, some companies may fail to meet expectations.

In terms of plate selection, China Merchants Fund considers that the equity market in the second half of the year is difficult to show a trend, while the overall interest rate level can remain relatively low. Since the beginning of the year, the stable and cyclical style with little increase may be dominant. Sino-US friction entering a period of gradual easing is expected to boost the risk preference of the growth plate, considering the economy in the second half of the year. The downward trend is still under pressure. The overinflated consumer sector may be under pressure, focusing on the 5G and innovative drug sectors with upward industry prosperity and reasonable valuation.

In the short term, the domestic and foreign environment in July has returned to the similar state of relaxation + relaxation in the first quarter. The biggest difference from the first quarter is that it is difficult to see the obvious recovery momentum in the short and medium term. In addition, because of the anticipated interest rate cut, the global stock market rushes ahead of schedule, domestic A shares have their own test and so on. In the short run, risky assets rebound or are limited, and attention should be paid to risk prevention.

Haitong Securities Strategy: Market is expected to erupt gradually in the second half of the year

Core conclusions:

(1) The Shanghai Composite Index 2440 points is the bull market reversal point, similar to 998 points in 2005. The big logic is: bull-bear cycle cycle, corporate profits bottomed out, domestic and foreign asset allocation A shares.

2. According to the trend of profit, the bull market is divided into incubation period, outbreak period and bubble period. Since the beginning of the year, the bull market has been adjusted for 3288 years, and the market is expected to enter the outbreak stage in the second half of the year.

The CITIC Securities Strategic Team, which has always been bullish, explained that the offensive was weak in early July. The CITIC Securities Strategy indicated that the weaker market offensive in early July was due to institutional repositioning and individual repositories reduction. There was no systemic overvaluation of core assets and the possibility of short-term systemic adjustment was small. The superposition of warehousing adjustment and allocation drives the market to move steadily and farther, and the allocation focuses on the real estate completion industry chain.

Source: Liu Song_NBJ9949, Responsible Editor of China Foundation Newspaper