June CPI announced today: Fruit and pork support increase or continue to exceed 2percent.

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 June CPI announced today: Fruit and pork support increase or continue to exceed 2percent.


CPI trend chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI rose by 2% year-on-year or more for 4 consecutive months.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that CPI rose by 2.7% in May from a year earlier, hitting a new 15-month high, driven by rising prices for pork, fruit and other foods.

What is the trend of the upcoming June CPI? In this regard, the market is generally expected to continue to increase CPI in June by more than 2% year-on-year, but there are differences on whether the increase will continue to expand or fall.

Some analysts believe that CPI growth in June will slightly decline from the same period last year. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, analyzed that the sufficient supply of vegetables in June led to a sustained decline in vegetable prices, a decrease in oil prices, and a sustained rise in pork prices due to reduced supply. CPI in June is expected to increase by 2.5% - 2.7% year-on-year, with a median of 2.6%, a slight decline compared with last month.

Others believe that CPI growth in June will continue to expand year-on-year. Huachang, chief economist of Guotai Junan, believes that most of the sub-items of food prices remained stable in June, but the prices of fish, fruit and meat rose significantly, supporting prices remained stable, and CPI is expected to rise slightly to 2.8% year-on-year in June.

According to Wind data, 20 research institutes forecast an average of 2.7% year-on-year increase in CPI in June. Among them, the maximum value is 2.9% and the minimum value is 2.5%.

Data Map: People buy fruits in supermarkets.

What is the price trend of pork, vegetables and fruits?

For a period of time, the price of pork, fruits, vegetables and other necessities has risen in varying degrees, which has aroused the attention of all sectors of society.

Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operation of the Ministry of Commerce, said on July 2 that in the near future, with the temperature rising, vegetables and fruits were listed in large quantities in season, the prices of fruits and vegetables showed a general trend of decline, and the price of pork also slowed down compared with the previous period.

According to the data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, from June 24 to June 30, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables in 36 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 3.7% compared with the beginning of June and 11.9% compared with the beginning of May. The average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored dropped by 0.2% compared with the previous week, and the price of pork dropped by 3.3 percentage points compared with the previous week.

Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said earlier that the rise in fruit prices was mainly due to abnormal weather factors. The rise was unsustainable. With a large number of seasonal fruit on the market, the price would fall back to the normal range relatively quickly.

What will the CPI trend be in the second half of the year?

As for the future price trend, Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, said that although the CPI increase is still within the control of 3% year-on-year, due to the great changes in the external environment, it may increase the cost of some consumer goods, and then transmit to the product price side, leading to the expansion of CPI increase. Lu Yanchun, director of the National Development and Reform Commissions price monitoring center, had predicted that May and June this year would be the peak of CPI for the whole year, and that there would be a decline thereafter, with a slight rebound at the end of the year. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of 30 vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kg last week (July 1-7), up 2.7% from the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 8.87 yuan per kg, down 0.4%; and the wholesale price of pork was 23.29 yuan per kg, up 0.7%. Source: Responsible Editor of CNN: Liu Yuxin_NBJS7825

As for the future price trend, Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, said that although the CPI increase is still within the control of 3% year-on-year, due to the great changes in the external environment, it may increase the cost of some consumer goods, and then transmit to the product price side, leading to the expansion of CPI increase.

Lu Yanchun, director of the National Development and Reform Commissions price monitoring center, had predicted that May and June this year would be the peak of CPI for the whole year, and that there would be a decline thereafter, with a slight rebound at the end of the year.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of 30 vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kg last week (July 1-7), up 2.7% from the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 8.87 yuan per kg, down 0.4%; and the wholesale price of pork was 23.29 yuan per kg, up 0.7%.