Everbright Securities Research Daily estimates that RMB credit will be increased by 1.7 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan in June, and social finance will be increased by 2.4 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social finance stock will rebound to a year high of 10.9% to 11%.
The study points out that since the banking emergencies, interbank liquidity has been impacted to a certain extent and continued to ferment in early June, making it difficult for small and medium-sized banks to issue interbank deposit receipts. However, the regulator timely issued response measures, in mid-June, small and medium-sized banks targeted to reduce the second release of liquidity of about 100 billion yuan. In June, excessive MLF continued to invest an additional 77 billion yuan in small and medium-sized banks; in mid-June, it increased rediscount and SLF quotas for small and medium-sized banks by 200 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively. Quantitatively, the end-of-month policy provides better hedging.
The most important factor affecting the scale of credit in June is the effective demand of the real economy. Given that demand is still weak, Everbright Securities Research reported that the new credit in June is lower than the same period last year, but will not deviate too much. As a result of last years low base of non-standard contraction, and in June, local special bonds were newly issued or nearly 400 billion yuan, or led to a rebound in the growth rate of social finance stock to a peak.
The macro monthly report of Bank of Communications in June found that the positive factors that stimulated the rebound of credit growth in June were stronger than the negative ones. Regardless of the seasonal characteristics of the cyclical rebound of credit increment in June, the effect of early step-by-step reduction is gradually exerting. The guidance of supervision on credit supporting the real economy and the anticipation of increasing counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy in the future may be the reasons for the obvious rebound of credit increment. However, such factors as increasing counter-cyclical adjustment of policy, easing of external uncertainty in the short term, accelerating local debt issuance and paying, and the seasonal significant reduction of fiscal deposits may be important factors to support the steady and rising growth of M2. Credit growth is expected to reach about 1.85 trillion yuan in June.
Source: Liable Editor of Securities Daily: Yang Qian_NF4425