On June 12, local time, Politico magazine and Morning Consult published the results of a joint poll, in which 1991 people participated on June 7-9. When asked, If the 2020 U.S. presidential election was Trump versus Biden, and today is the polling day, who would you vote for, 44% chose Biden, 33% chose Trump, and the rest were uncertain.
When Trumps opponent switched to Sanders, leader of the Democratic left-wing labor group, 42% chose Sanders and 32% chose Trump.
Simply put, if the poll is accurate, Trump will probably lose in the current situation, no matter whether he meets Biden or Sanders.
If one poll is unpredictable, look at another.
It is clear that Trumps unusual, extreme words, deeds and personality have exacerbated the social fragmentation of the United States. The traditional Democratic Republican Biden, however, has become the pinnacle of middle-class and middle-class voters in the United States, who have lost a lot in recent years.
In this Eagle Eye State, Biden confidently said that public opinion will remind Trump, while Trump chanted I will win here, and again satirized his opponent old age: Before I get up to him, he will be overthrown by the young people in the Democratic Party. ?
Its a bit of a dilemma.
Bidens political career is rich and long, but most of the time he spent as a senator and vice president. These are two typical sitting and talking positions. There are no specific responsibilities to take on, so it is difficult to catch administrative stains.
Whats more, despite the fact that Biden was full of troughs in the Democratic radicals: once opposed to funding abortion; once ambiguous in pushing the Obama health insurance case; as chairman of the Senate Judicial Committee, he was accused of having a hand in the so-called Thomas Sexual Harassment case...
In this way, he can only repeatedly take the opponents age smash hang, regardless of himself is only 50 steps laughing 100 steps.
It should also be noted that CNN, which has always been a non-confrontational media with Trump, does not favor Biden, which in fact indicates a tendency that mainstream media and analysts in the United States do not believe in the accuracy of polling results on a particular node.
Lloyd Green, a senior executive at Ospreylytics, a research and analysis company who was responsible for opponent information analysis for the Bush campaign, points out that public opinion is like water and mood changes greatly. At this time, it is too early for Biden to lead the election.
The problem is first fat is not fat. When the 2016 campaign began, let alone no one would believe Trump would win Hillary Clinton. How many people thought he could stand out in the Republican primary?
Biden has never been good at face-to-face debates and public speeches, and Trump is a master of this, not to mention one-to-one debates in the final confrontation stage. Whether he can speak alone without being affected by the bright lights on the stage is hard to say.
After the election of alternative Trump, the trend of turning left appeared in the Democratic Party. As many as 24 contenders for the partys nomination have breathtaking characters, who are keen on topics such as womens rights, rice rabbits, abortion rights, the Green New Deal and Obamacare, and go further than the original one by one.
Among these topics, Biden, with his Thomas Black Pot on his back, is clearly stumbling. Not to mention womens rights and so on, even if Obama Medicare is publicly standing in line, radical opponents and their supporters are not reluctant to believe that he said yes or no: once opposed, but now only for electoral change.
As Lloyd Green points out, the Democratic and Republican primaries have different rules. The latter is similar to the winner-take-all rule in presidential elections. Even if a state wins 0.1% of the vote, it is counted as a win-all, and eventually counted as electoral votes in general elections, so the primaries in the party are usually quick and not too stimulating.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, counts as many percent as it wins, and counts all the votes when all the states are elected.
But Biden is not without good news: on June 13, local time, Hill, the heroine of the Thomas case, who had been beating him up and shouting Never forgive two months ago, made it clear in an interview with NBC host Mitchell on TV that the two evils should be the least. If the two candidates for the 2020 US presidential election were Biden and Trump, I would certainly vote for Biden. She also appealed to the public to be aware of the urgency of this issue.