In May, the national CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, and the increase was in the two times for three consecutive months. From the ring comparison, the CPI rose by 0.1% from last month to be flat.
In terms of provinces, the CPI of 14 provinces in Hebei, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, Jilin, Shanxi, Shandong and Anhui increased more than the national average in May. In May, CPI in Gansu and Shaanxi increased at the same rate as in the whole country.
Yang Chang, a senior economist at the China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei clients that non-food is more important in Beijings CPI than in the national level. Beijings consumption structure emphasizes service consumption, with Engels coefficient very low and food expenditure relatively low. The main varieties of food, especially fruits and eggs, which rose in May are food. Beijings food weights are lower than the national average, which depresses the year-on-year increase in CPI.
Expert: Prices should be stable in the future
The deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute and the chief fixed income researcher clearly indicated that in May, the CPI price increase of food items was mainly affected by the increase of fresh fruits and egg prices. The fresh fruits and egg prices were all descending into the downstream channel. If the price of pigs did not rise rapidly in June, the pace of CPI rise would be slowed down.
Haitong Securities analyst Jiang Chao believes that since June, the price of fresh fruit has dropped, and pork prices have rebounded slightly, vegetable prices have continued to decline, and food prices have continued to decline compared with the May average. CPI is expected to fall slightly or * slightly down in June. In recent years, international oil prices have fallen sharply. On June 11, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen by 465 yuan and 445 yuan per ton respectively. It is expected that non-food CPI will also decline slightly from the same period last year. Taken together, CPI is expected to fall to 2.6% in June from a year earlier.
Source: Responsible Editor of Sino-Singapore Longitudinal and Weft: Han Yukun_NBJ11142