Since the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 5.61%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index have risen by 16.71% and 23.64%, respectively. From the perspective of the increase, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes have won the Heng Index by a large margin, and from the perspective of the price ratio of AH stocks, A + H stocks generally win the H stocks.
On the 13th, the trend of the premium index of AH shares shook after rising in the early trading, and it fell and fell in the late trading, closing at 126.62 points, a decline of 0.17%. According to observation, the premium index of AH shares has shown a high volatility trend since it reached a stage high of 128.48 in April. Since May, the index has risen slightly by 0.96%, but by 5.32%. Compared with 117.15 at the beginning of the year, the index has risen by 8.08%.
Among the 114 A + H stocks in Tonghuashun, 31 have a premium of more than 100% and 14 have a premium of more than 200%. The top ones are Luoyang Glass, Zhejiang Shibao, Nanjing Panda, Beijing Stock and CITIC Construction Investment. The premium rates of these stocks are 601.62%, 575.78%, 4449.27%, 386.97% and 323.97%, respectively. As far as the industry sector is concerned, the stocks with higher premium ratio of A share to H share are concentrated in the infrastructure, finance and public utilities sectors.
Market analysts said that among the stocks tracked by the AH stock premium index, banks, insurance companies, securities firms and other financial sectors have an absolute advantage in stock weights. Statistics show that such stocks in H shares generally rise less than A shares, leading to a higher premium index.
H shares are in a price depression
Recently, the trend of Hong Kong stock market has been turbulent, but the net inflow of Hong Kong stock from south to south is still continuing. According to Wind data, the total net inflow of Hong Kong shares to the South was HK$2.238 billion on the 13th, including HK$1.347 billion in Shanghai and HK$891 million in Shenzhen. So far, net inflows of southward funds have been realized for 13 consecutive trading days, totalling HK$12.255 billion since this month.
Market participants said that since the interconnection of the two markets, the AH stock premium index is an important reference index for capital flows. When the premium index rises, capital tends to flow to price depression. With the current high premium index of AH shares, Hong Kong H shares are expected to attract long-term allocation capital inflows.
Lu Hengjun, Director of Overseas Research, International Business Department of Great Wall Fund, said, The problem of premium of AH shares has existed for a long time. It is mainly caused by the differences in the structure of investors and investment ideas between the two markets. At the same time, he said, Hong Kong stocks are favored by many institutional investors because of their low valuation and high dividend rate, and the price difference between the two markets has also prompted many investors to turn their attention to the Hong Kong stock market.
Regarding the current adjustment of the Hong Kong stock market, Lu Hengjun believes that at present, the Hang Seng Index valuation is about 10 times, not very high. With corporate profits bottoming out, there is still confidence in the subsequent recovery.
In the long run, Lu Hengjun believes that the Hang Seng Index is a trend of short bear and long bull. The profitability of the Hang Seng Index composed of 50 high-quality blue-chip stocks is a long-term growth, and its index trend is also a process of constantly reaching a record high.
Source: Yang Bin_NF4368, Responsible Editor of China Securities News and China Securities Network