Biden attended an election campaign in Davenport, Iowa, on November 11. Picture/Visual China
Trump has been a bit annoyed lately: former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democratic rival whom he has publicly derided as a sleeping bug, has taken the lead in polls, even though he routinely calls it false news on Twitter.
First, the polls are not accurate? Maybe its right to take more tests.
On June 12, local time, Politico magazine and Morning Consult published the results of a joint poll, in which 1991 people participated on June 7-9. When asked, If the 2020 U.S. presidential election was Trump versus Biden, and today is the polling day, who would you vote for, 44% chose Biden, 33% chose Trump, and the rest were uncertain.
When Trumps opponent switched to Sanders, leader of the Democratic left-wing labor group, 42% chose Sanders and 32% chose Trump.
Simply put, if the poll is accurate, Trump will probably lose in the current situation, no matter whether he meets Biden or Sanders.
If one poll is unpredictable, look at another.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll released on June 5, local time, Bidens approval rate was 48% among candidates interested in competing for the presidential election in 2020, while Trumps approval rate was only 44%. However, according to a poll released on the same day by CNN, which has consistently been non-confronting with Trump, 54% of respondents thought Trump would be re-elected, while only 41% thought he would not. But the poll did not cover other candidates.
The Mirror cited CBS data to point out that Biden has led Trump by 4 percentage points in Texas, North Carolina by more than 10 percentage points, and Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by a certain margin.
CBS poll conducted by campaign pollster Fabrizio points out that Trumps support rate has declined steadily in most demographic groups, but has remained unchanged for several months among those who strongly support Republicans or Democrats, with only a straight drop of six percentage points among centrist voters.
It is clear that Trumps unusual, extreme words, deeds and personality have exacerbated the social fragmentation of the United States. The traditional Democratic Republican Biden, however, has become the pinnacle of middle-class and middle-class voters in the United States, who have lost a lot in recent years.
Trump attended the election campaign in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on November 11. Picture/Visual China
2. No other words except age?
Biden officially announced his candidacy on April 25. Trump began to criticize him that day, sneer at him, even give him a nickname, trying to show a disdain for Biden posture.
However, it is not difficult for those familiar with the rules of the electoral social game to see that such a rapid response and so frequent mention of the name of a particular opponent show the importance attached to this person, or rather, a little fear.
On June 12, Trump and Biden arrived in Iowa on the same day to attend a public event. In the last election, Trump won nine percentage points in this agricultural state. But now polls show that although more than 80% of Republicans in the state still support him, the overall figure is that the proportion against him is six percentage points higher.
In this Eagle Eye State, Biden confidently said that public opinion will remind Trump, while Trump chanted I will win here, and again satirized his opponent old age: Before I get up to him, he will be overthrown by the young people in the Democratic Party. ?
Bidens announcement that Trump called him a sleeping bug on the first day of his campaign was a mockery of his opponents 76-year-old age. He satirized that once elected president, the sleeper would not be able to make trouble with the powerful international leaders. ?
But nearly two months later, he still made fun of Bidens age, and even some observers who supported him felt puzzled: Did he have no other topic to criticize his dangerous opponent except his age?
Trump himself is 73 years old, only three years younger than the sleeping bug.
Its a bit of a dilemma.
Bidens political career is rich and long, but most of the time he spent as a senator and vice president. These are two typical sitting and talking positions. There are no specific responsibilities to take on, so it is difficult to catch administrative stains.
Whats more, despite the fact that Biden was full of troughs in the Democratic radicals: once opposed to funding abortion; once ambiguous in pushing the Obama health insurance case; as chairman of the Senate Judicial Committee, he was accused of having a hand in the so-called Thomas Sexual Harassment case...
But on these slots, Trump has a difficult word to say. Either his views are similar to Bidens, or his slots are more than Bidens.
In this way, he can only repeatedly take the opponents age smash hang, regardless of himself is only 50 steps laughing 100 steps.
Can Biden really win?
It should also be noted that CNN, which has always been a non-confrontational media with Trump, does not favor Biden, which in fact indicates a tendency that mainstream media and analysts in the United States do not believe in the accuracy of polling results on a particular node.
Lloyd Green, a senior executive at Ospreylytics, a research and analysis company who was responsible for opponent information analysis for the Bush campaign, points out that public opinion is like water and mood changes greatly. At this time, it is too early for Biden to lead the election.
Among the leading states in Bidens polls, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina were the first to vote. If Biden did win these states, he could boost morale.
Biden, himself from the Rust States, would have a better chance of winning back the two Rust States that supported Trump in 2016, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which had long voted for Republicans.
The problem is first fat is not fat. When the 2016 campaign began, let alone no one would believe Trump would win Hillary Clinton. How many people thought he could stand out in the Republican primary?
Biden has never been good at face-to-face debates and public speeches, and Trump is a master of this, not to mention one-to-one debates in the final confrontation stage. Whether he can speak alone without being affected by the bright lights on the stage is hard to say.
Not only that, but the phrase he cant stand in front of me is not unreasonable.
After the election of alternative Trump, the trend of turning left appeared in the Democratic Party. As many as 24 contenders for the partys nomination have breathtaking characters, who are keen on topics such as womens rights, rice rabbits, abortion rights, the Green New Deal and Obamacare, and go further than the original one by one.
Among these topics, Biden, with his Thomas Black Pot on his back, is clearly stumbling. Not to mention womens rights and so on, even if Obama Medicare is publicly standing in line, radical opponents and their supporters are not reluctant to believe that he said yes or no: once opposed, but now only for electoral change.
As Lloyd Green points out, the Democratic and Republican primaries have different rules. The latter is similar to the winner-take-all rule in presidential elections. Even if a state wins 0.1% of the vote, it is counted as a win-all, and eventually counted as electoral votes in general elections, so the primaries in the party are usually quick and not too stimulating.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, counts as many percent as it wins, and counts all the votes when all the states are elected.
In this way, not only the process of primary election is lengthy, but as many as 20 candidates struggle to tear in the long and tedious process of primary election, the winner may be exhausted and easy to get into by idle Republican opponents.
Whats more, its hard to say whether Biden, who has always been a Democratic Republican centrist, can break out in the current atmosphere of who is radical and who is loud in the Democratic Party and reach the one-to-one platform with Trump.
But Biden is not without good news: on June 13, local time, Hill, the heroine of the Thomas case, who had been beating him up and shouting Never forgive two months ago, made it clear in an interview with NBC host Mitchell on TV that the two evils should be the least. If the two candidates for the 2020 US presidential election were Biden and Trump, I would certainly vote for Biden. She also appealed to the public to be aware of the urgency of this issue.
Indeed, if the Democrats really realized that they had to get out a Democratic presidential candidate who could compete with Trump with the least cost and loss, they would be expected to oust Trump in the 2020 presidential election. They might try to streamline the cumbersome process of the partys primary election, thereby increasing Bidens chances of winning the partys primary.
But who knows?
There was a heated discussion about whether Hillary could defeat Jeb Bush in the presidential run-off, but it was Trump who eventually blocked her from the White House.
Source: Responsible Editor of Beijing Newspaper: Chengyu_NBJ11143