Beginning in 2019, small giants who have leaped forward with the help of mobile Internet have narrowed their battlefront and paid attention to realisation. This is a rare moment of silence.
Like big giants, they face pressure from capital markets and layoffs, as well as cash flow anxiety like small companies. TMD, the peak of the start-up phase, is not going well. Some people comment that the hottest places are beginning to snow, and winter is really coming.
Unlike most people think, what they are experiencing is not a winter, because winter means there will be spring. Today is actually the arrival of the new normal, that is to say, it is normal now. Whether it is BAT, TMD or small companies, they are not entering another winter, but returning to the normal business mode where big dividends disappear.
All companies will be very difficult, and the size of the companys size, business model, how much money to burn is not necessarily related to the size of the companys plight. Cash flow is the life and death gate to smooth through the adjustment period - this is also the core keyword of TMD consolidation.
Where is the path for the small giants to become bigger when the red money is used up in the early stage? From now on, either deep or wide.
For those who want to be in-depth, 2B has a vast room for growth, but the substantive significance of 2B business needs time. In the past, the battle between the American League and the hungry was the battle of survival for the hungry. Today, the American League and Ali have waged a full-scale war in the field of life service, which is the battle for the survival of the American League.
To make broad headlines, many new products incubated internally in 2018 have stagnated in growth, and it is difficult to commercialize short videos internationally. At the same time, they are facing the possible pressure of encirclement and suppression from Google and Facebook and the challenge of building their own advertising sales network.
For those who want to do both deep and wide, they are the only ones with monopoly positions in the main business area, but they are faced with strong policy uncertainty. At home, Goethes new aggregation model is starting. It is regarded as the internationalization of the key strategy. India and Indonesia have strong local players, Europe and North America have Uber and Lyft, and the Middle East has Careem, which has just been acquired by Uber.
New businesses with unstable foundations are in the front, major businesses with large but weak foundations are in the back, and TMD has a long way to go. Last year, people were still expecting when small giants would become big giants, but for a long time, the first thing they had to consider was how to survive.
Byte bounce: a callback from the top
According to Finance and Economics, the last round of byte bouncing (F round) was valued at 80 billion yuan. In the terms of betting with financial investors, it promised to be listed at a valuation of not less than 90 billion dollars. Compared with other companies, byte-beating listing conditions are the most mature, and the market is getting better. Financial investors hope that the company can be listed as soon as possible, which is not entirely consistent with Zhang Yiming, founder of byte-beating which advocates delayed gratification. According to byte-bouncing investorsforecasts, they estimate that byte-bouncing listings will be more than $100 billion.
2019 will be a key year for the star company. But just after the Spring Festival, byte bouncing quietly calls back revenue targets.
Our companys revenue is growing by more than 300% every year. A byte jumper proudly told Caijing. According to Finance and Economics, byte bouncing revenue in 2015 was about 1.6 billion yuan, 16 billion yuan in 16 years, 16 billion yuan in 2017 and 50 billion yuan in 2018.
In general, it is impossible to maintain growth of more than 300% all the time. According to Caijing reporters, the companys revenue target for 2019 is 120 billion to 140 billion yuan, with a bottoming figure of about 100 billion to 120 billion yuan.
A byte-beating commercialized employee said that it would not be easy to achieve revenue results in 2018. Therefore, the revenue target for 2019 is relatively conservative compared with the previous high growth, and is tighter than the original target before the Spring Festival. But to reach 100 billion is already a very good achievement in the industry.
The reason why byte-bouncing revenue targets in 2018 barely meet the target is that:
1. Optimistic estimates of the jitter that is seen as another revenue engine besides the headlines, in fact, its revenue started in the second half of the year.
2. The closure of connotative paragraph and the shaking-tone advertisement Qiu Shaoyun incident have an impact on revenue.
3. Only a few new products stand out, such as Know the Motorcycle Emperor has reached millions of daily life and maintained the growth trend, while the growth of most products such as New Grass has stagnated, and the daily life and payment rate of gogogokid, an educational product, is not high. In 2018, 300 million yuan was spent on projects, but not more than 10,000 yuan a day. An insider said.
4. Expenditure: The market cost is very high, Tiktoks overseas investment expenditure is huge, and domestic trembler investment expenditure is more than 100 million per month.
One of the secrets of byte bouncing growth was to reduce profits and reinvest all high incomes in exchange for high growth. In 2018, tremolo grew from tens of millions of daily living to over 200 million, realizing 300 million daily living in the world, which is actually the investment of billions of dollars of the whole company.
Therefore, when income growth slows down, it is also necessary for managers to control expenditure better and more strictly. At the beginning of 2019, Zhang Yiming put forward the strategy of getting rid of fat and losing weight internally. Getting rid of fat and losing weight is to remove the inefficient and unnecessary parts and improve the value of unit people and unit funds.
In 2019, the keywords for byte jitter consolidation are open source and throttling. Open Source: On the basis of increasing advertising revenue, we should optimize the revenue structure based on advertising, and explore more revenue space in live broadcasting, search, content payment, e-commerce, game intermodal transport and other businesses.
Throttle: Focus on improving the efficiency of growth input. In addition to stricter budgetary approval and internal corruption supervision, it is also strengthening to grasp the time point and intensity of product spending promotion, instead of spending money on buying time before a certain natural growth of the product has been formed; at the same time, it has adjusted the OKR of employees, which includes the link of getting fat and getting thin, especially the ROI (input-output ratio) of the product.
The main problem of byte bouncing is that the industrial chain of information distribution is short, and there is insufficient space to go up. However, it is still unclear in the field of business development, such as internationalization, enterprise services, and so on, which needs a large amount of investment in the early stage to support. Among them, internationalization will be the biggest point of view and growth in the future.
According to Finance and Economics, the internationalization of TikTok will take on the main task of byte bouncing in 2019, but the commercialization of TikTok in other areas except Japan is still in its infancy. At present, TikTok International Team has only established Bytedance Company in Japan, which contributes most of the overseas revenue of byte-hopping internationalization.
Lark, another international track enterprise service product, registered with Lark Technologies in Singapore and continued to expand its team. Lark has expanded hundreds of customers from byte-bouncing advertisement service providers in China, but the way of commercialization abroad is still exploring. It faces the competition of enterprise service products such as Google and Microsoft.
In addition to traffic growth tasks, byte bouncing is also trying to build a global advertising network. All overseas advertising revenue products are inseparable from competing with Facebook and Google, which have the worlds two largest advertising sales networks. And the history of Chinese products such as cheetahs going to sea shows that if you dont build your own advertising sales network, your destiny will always be in the hands of FB or Google.
The path of internationalization and commercialization is very difficult, but once the market is opened, it is different from AT. Inside the headlines, this is the hardest and most worthwhile thing to do, just the time.
Overall, the effect of internal and external pressure on byte hopping is not too severe. Just like the college entrance examination becomes difficult, the impact on top students will not be great. These insiders said.
It is understood that there is no layoff plan for byte bouncing. The total number of employees is about 46,000. HeadCount growth depends on department. For example, internationalization and Lark are still recruiting. In these departments, the most important thing is the entrepreneurship of candidates.
Pulse report shows that byte-beating talent continues to expand, is the largest inflow of talent in 2018 enterprises, 2017 in this position is the group review.
American Mission Comments: Ending a Separation and Starting a Long March
Comparing with 2018, Art Mission Comments entered a business contraction period in 2019. Once regarded as borderless by the outside world, the United States has quietly established a border, with Food as the core, to deepen and strengthen the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain; new businesses outside the border will be more prudently invested.
The companys two new businesses in 2018, online car booking and flash buying, have attracted much attention. The former is due to unclear policy environment and investor pressure and other factors, resulting in a decline in viability, basically pressing the pause button, the latter is too difficult to connect to the off-line system, and there has been no voice in the near future. In addition, the delegation has closed down some tentative new businesses, such as time-sharing leasing and sharing charging treasures, and few new businesses were launched in the second half of last year.
In 2019, besides the traditional two core businesses of arriving at the store and arriving at home, the fast donkey, elephant fresh (and vegetable shopping) and restaurant management system (RMS) are also the focus of investment.
According to Finance and Economics reporter, the company had planned to split the elephant and contacted a few investors, but was finally stopped by the companys CEO Wang Xing. The main reason is that the founder believes that the mission of the company is to help everyone eat better, and besides going to the store and taking-out, buying food is also an important scene of eating, so it should not be divided, even if it is difficult, it should be done inside the company.
ABCDE has five major competitors, namely Ali, Baidu, Ctrip, Drop-drop, hungry? With the shift of business focus, Baidu, Drop-drop gradually fade out, hungry or merged into Ali. New competitors emerge, such as in the hottest vegetable market this year, the American Troupe is facing the competition of box horse, dining and so on. In the fast donkey purchasing business, it is facing the positive competition with the new Unicorn cuisine.
The exchange of fire between the American League and Ali is far more intense than you expected. Alis word of mouth, hungry, flying pigs, box horse directly against the US mission. In addition, it will also fight indirectly against Hellobike, who covets the virtues of the netizens and is heavily invested by ants. Indirect combat does not mean that the campaign is smaller, but that the time of artillery arrival is uncertain. It is understood that the company is still rethinking its group purchase business.
Reporters learned that on April 3, 2019, hungry Mohe held the annual start-up meeting of local life in Hangzhou, which was named yn Battle. The name has two meanings, one is dawn, the other is firing.
Before hungry, the idea of beating the American League was two points: 1. the inflow of Ali flow; 2. burning money. However, at present, the upper, middle and lower expeditions are only fighting in the middle stage. That is to say, they are trying to cut off the external linkage of the American Regiment and smooth out the original resource advantages.
A senior e-commerce person told Caijing that supply-side reform is crucial to the company, because it is the moat that enables businesses to earn more money at lower cost and live on the company. That is, combining SAAS services, ERP services and improving operational efficiency to promote takeaway business, including Food business.
Few people know that even in 2018, the American Regiment is not burning less money in the business of buying vegetables than taxis, but the focus of the outside world is on taxis. Just like most people didnt realize that Fast Donkey was responsible for an SVP until the company announced the restructuring, thinking that it was just a director in charge.
However, the current penetration and transformation of offline commerce is far from enough. Supply-side reforms and persistent external campaigns require a strong organizational scheduling brain. Service e-commerce and physical e-commerce are both retail, requiring retail Zhongtai. Alis Zhongtai system is the most perfect in Internet companies, while the construction of the American Troupe system has just begun.
At present, Wang Huiwen, who has been in charge of almost all business lines, is in charge of platform construction (user platform + LBS platform). It is understood that the American League is very disgusted with the concept of Zhongtai. They believe that everything has its own name, but there is no unified name.
Strengthening platform construction and new business turnover are all reflected in the current organizational structure of the delegation. Among TMD, the top management team of American League is also the most stable.
Meanwhile, the company launched its first large-scale layoffs in three years. At present, the number of layoffs has reached about 1,000, and some posts will not be recruited after they leave their posts. Fast donkey, elephant, home, shop and other business departments are still recruiting. HeadCount of other business departments has been downsized but not frozen.
Metro is the strongest emphasis on basic skills both at home and abroad in TMD, which reflects pragmatism to some extent. This is rooted in the founders personality, on the one hand, Metro is the only listed company among the three TMD companies.
If you want to think clearly or not, try it. If you want to think clearly, you will be radical. If you dont think clearly, you will withdraw immediately. This is the shortcoming and advantage of the American League. In retrospect, there were indeed strategic misjudgments in 2018, but the expectations were adjusted in time. At present, the companys stock price is HK$53.6 and its total market value is HK$307.452 billion.
Drops: the biggest problem and the biggest imagination space
With huge pressure from the public and the government, 2019 is coming. Most companies will die in 2019, and we have already died once in 2018 for every drop. One employee said that the only good news in the bad news might be that their 2019 should not be worse than 2018.
After the two vicious incidents of windmills, from late 2018 to the present, the most important task is to make up lessons. Reporters visited the office in March this year. On the spot, they saw that the red slogan Protecting passengerssafety, fully implementing the main responsibility of enterprise security, Deep reflection, alarm bell ringing still hangs in the company. Employeesfrowns are locked and their steps are in a hurry, which is the most dignified atmosphere in TMDs three homes.
In the past, the idea of start-up companies was that the size of the platform was the most important, including orders, drivers, passengers, GMV, etc., followed by revenue (commission drawn from the platform); after the windmill incident, safety was put in the first place, and a series of compliance and organizational adjustment plans were launched.
Compliance and contraction are key words, and their consolidation plan is embodied in the following two points:
1. Shut down and turn around. In 2018, the total loss increased sharply from 2.5 billion yuan in 2017 to 10.9 billion yuan. In 2019, we will focus on the most important main business of travel, shut down and merge the non-main business, with 15% of the total number of layoffs, involving about 2,000 people.
The key businesses of layoffs are takeout, windmill and car rental. At present, the domestic business and hotel business of take-out drip will be completely closed down. Some take-out teams will be transferred to the international department, and take-out will continue to test the internationalization of water. Meanwhile, Droplet will recruit 2,500 people in the fields of safety technology, products and offline driver management and internationalization.
2. Large-scale organization adjustment. Including: Express business group merger, the establishment of network contract vehicle platform company, the purpose is to fully comply with the regulations, after comprehensive compliance, express price may gradually increase;
Whether the car owner is the first or the passenger is the first, there is no clear conclusion in the past, it seems that both are important, both hands grasp at the same time. But in fact, only by firmly controlling the supply side (owner) can there be a moat. At the same time, because the user perception is the owner, not the back-end platform, so only when the owner contradiction is solved, can the contradiction between the user and the platform be truly solved. This is why Droplet will merge the original orange garments with the Auto Asset Management Center (AMC) to set up a car owner service company. Meanwhile, General Fu Qiang is currently allin in customer service.
In TMD, the dilemma of droplets is the most complex and difficult to solve.
Business model, business is good business, but invest too much too long, return on capital is not enough (drip-drip cumulative financing and burnt money and valuation comparison), drip-drip cumulative financing of $20.8 billion, valuation of $56 billion.
On the supply side, if the drivers compliance is completely solved, the order quantity will be greatly damaged, and the drivers supply will be problematic; if not solved, the government will not agree, but now it can only solve the problem partially and slowly, while vigorously dredging the governments relations.
The internationalization of high expectations is profitable because of low subsidies and high unit price. But globally, there are Uber and Lyft in Europe and North America; in Southeast Asia, DDT was a big shareholder of Grab and jointly opposed Uber, but in March 2018, when Grab merged with Uber Southeast Asia, Uber became the largest shareholder of the new company and Softbank the second largest; in the Middle East, DDT was a small shareholder of local platform Careem and jointly opposed Uber, but Careem was acquired by Uber for $3.1 billion last month. Capital pooling, or Uber is more wealthy.
So, Drops cant hope that minority equity investment can really solve the strategic problems as before, just like the previous $1 billion of Brazils 99 taxi fully captured and operated by itself. Although it is extremely difficult.
Headline content, American League consumption, dripping traffic, dripping imagination space is the largest. But the story of driverless people has not yet begun, and the dream of the worlds largest one-stop travel platform has not yet come true. Dripping deep is a protracted war, and horizontal travel is not extensible enough, so we are trapped in the present. This is its 2019.
The three leaders of TMD, Zhang Yiming, Wang Xing and Cheng Wei, are all young representatives with similar age, but their world outlook and outlook on life are quite different. The CEO who leads the rapid growth of the enterprise and the rapid growth of the market is a good CEO. When the market does not grow rapidly, leading enterprises through the cycle and fog, and making sustained and efficient growth, is the real test of CEO wisdom.
Caijing reporter once asked Shen Nanpeng, founder of Sequoia China, who has more stamina in TMD? It depends on whether you look at it three years later, five years later or ten years later, he said. There are many answers to this question, and most of them always find reasonable logic. But if we take the time dimension longer and look at 10, 30, 50, or even 100 years, the enemy may not be the enemy at present, the advantage at present may not be the advantage, and the difficulty at present is not the problem. No one can predict the outcome after 50 years and 100 years, just as no one can predict the outcome of 2019.
Source: Responsible Editor of Financial Journal: Wang Fengzhi_NT2541