Suspected military coup in Sudan? Expert: External effects exacerbate instability

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 Suspected military coup in Sudan? Expert: External effects exacerbate instability


Sudanese people protested in the capital Khartoum. Photo Source: Visual China

According to foreign media reports, Sudan, Africas third largest country, was suspected of having a military coup on November 11. According to CNN, several sources confirmed that President Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for 30 years in Sudan, had stepped down and was temporarily placed under house arrest by the military, and that his private guards had been disarmed.

Behind the deterioration of the situation in Sudan is the plight of its economic and social development.

In recent years, the trend of economic deterioration in Sudan has been obvious, with inflation reaching a record 80%, and the Sudanese pound has depreciated seriously. There is a serious shortage of gasoline and diesel, which has greatly affected industrial and agricultural production. The supply of basic materials such as flour and sugar is tight and prices are soaring. Zhu Ming, director of the Regional Cooperation Office of Shanghai International Research Fellow, said that since the independence of South Sudan, which is rich in oil production, Sudans economy has been deteriorating, welfare projects have been severely reduced and people feel the pressure of life has increased.

Since 2018, Bashir has restructured his cabinet many times, and implemented many measures, such as stimulating exports, reforming the foreign exchange management mechanism, controlling the liquidity of local currency, combating corruption and smuggling, and seeking assistance from outside, in order to recover the decline, but the results are very little.

Li Xuedong, deputy director of the East African Regional and Country Research Center of the African Research Institute of Zhejiang Normal University, believes that behind the turmoil in Sudan, an important reason that can not be ignored is the long-term sanctions imposed by the United States. The United States has long accused Khartoum of supporting terrorist organizations and imposed sanctions on Sudan for more than 20 years. As the US Treasury strictly supervises the Soviet-related activities of many international financial institutions, a large number of third-country companies and individuals trading with Sudan have also been affected, and Sudans normal foreign trade has been greatly affected. In 2014, BNP Paribas was forced to pay a fine of up to $8.97 billion to the United States on suspicion of transferring funds to countries such as Sudan and Iran, which had been sanctioned by the United States. This has led most financial institutions to avoid Sudan, Sudan is difficult to obtain external financial and credit support. The trade embargo also prevents Sudan from gaining access to advanced equipment in the fields of transportation, agriculture and telecommunications, and retards its development. In addition, Sudans heavy debt, massive official corruption and huge expenditures on the security sector and government bureaucracy are also important factors in crushing the Sudanese economy.

Overlapping these factors, the discontent of Sudanese society has accumulated. Since the deterioration of the situation in Sudan, the number of people participating in strikes and demonstrations has been increasing, covering students, doctors, teachers, lawyers and other industries, indicating that the middle class has been strongly dissatisfied with the Sudanese authorities, and the majority of these groups are young people, making it more difficult to compromise. Luo Jianbo, director of the China Institute of Foreign Affairs of the International Institute of Strategic Studies of the Central Party School, said that Sudans internal contradictions had always existed and its discontent with the government was open, but the suspected military coup situation was still a little surprising. Recent changes in the Algerian regime or an external stimulus factor.

Source: Overseas Network Responsible Editor: Yang Yi_NBJ10647