Sino-Singapore Longitudinal and Weft Client Power on April 11, according to domestic oil price adjustment rules, a new round of oil product price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on April 12. Monitoring data from several social institutions show that oil prices will rise for the sixth time in the year, with an expected increase of 160 yuan/ton, after experiencing five rises, one falls and one strand and influenced by international oil price fluctuations.
At present, the prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline at Sinopec Gas Station in Beijing are 6.87 yuan per liter and 7.31 yuan per liter, respectively. It is expected that after the current round of price adjustment, the retail price of gasoline will increase by about 0.13 yuan per litre, and the No. 92 gasoline will return to the era of 7 yuan.
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In early January, international oil prices set the longest record of continuous rise in nearly a decade, while on April 8, international oil prices reached a new high in nearly five months. Up to now, the price of domestic refined oil has been raised five times in 2019, lowered once (due to the change of VAT tax rate), stranded once, and the price of gasoline and diesel oil has been increased by 525 yuan per ton.
Up to the eighth working day of this cycle, the corresponding range of oil price changes is about 155 yuan/ton, and the increase is already a nail in the pan. Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that the overall rate of change during the price adjustment cycle was good, mainly because OPEC and Russia continued to support production cuts; US and global economic data showed signs of warming up; Venezuela and Iran remained unstable.
In fact, JPMorgan Chase reported on July 7 that Brents oil price rose by more than 30% in the year, thanks to four consecutive months of production cuts in OPEC and other non-OPEC member countries, as well as optimistic expectations of the US-China trade negotiations.
However, whether international oil prices can continue to rise remains a variable. Russias energy minister, Alexander Nowak, has revealed that Russia is reluctant to continue participating in the OPEC cut-off agreement, which expires on July 1, and Russias oil production is likely to increase again.
At the close of April 9, local time, US crude oil production still had room for growth as the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) monthly report downgraded global crude oil demand growth expectations, and American Petroleum Association (API) crude oil inventories exceeded expectations and international oil prices fell. Light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.42, or 0.65%, to $63.98 a barrel, while London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery fell $0.49, or 0.69%, to $70.61 a barrel.
According to Longzhong Information, as of April 9, the overall crude oil change rate was 4.39%, and the corresponding increase was 155 yuan/ton. Li Yan predicts that this round of oil price rise is a big probability event, so the price adjustment in 2019 will present a situation of six rises, one fall and one strand.
The monitoring data of Anxunshi China also show that the comprehensive change rate of crude oil in the eighth working day of the current price adjustment cycle is 2.56%, which corresponds to an increase of about 120 yuan/ton of domestic oil price. Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude clients noted that at the end of March, due to the change of VAT tax rate, the oil price will be lowered, which will be almost erased after the price adjustment. By then, the cost of oil used by consumers will increase. It is suggested that owners fill up their tanks before this Saturday.
Specifically to the wholesale market, the price of gasoline and diesel oil tends to rise in the current cycle. From the retail market point of view, in recent years, Sinopec and other state-owned gas stations do not have a wide range of preferential treatment, and private gas stations have significantly reduced the degree of preferential treatment, only 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than state-owned gas stations, the largest preferential rate in the past can generally reach 1.2 yuan/liter.
For the future trend of oil prices, Li Yan analysis said that the current international crude oil market price performance is stable, and it is expected that by April 26 when the price adjustment window opens, there will still be a slight possibility of domestic refined oil prices rising.
Source of this article: responsible editor of Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude: Gu Ying_NN6577