Second tier cities relaxed settled in disguised relaxed restriction? Multi City inventory decline

category:Society
 Second tier cities relaxed settled in disguised relaxed restriction? Multi City inventory decline


In the near future, a new round of contention for talent in the country has become increasingly fierce, and there is a trend of spreading from second line cities to three or four line cities, including Dongguan, Weifang, Foshan and other three or four line cities, which have recently joined the snatch war. These cities are trying to attract talents by means of reducing their threshold and raising housing and renting subsidies. However, whether such a battle for talent will be transmitted to the real estate market, whether the gate of the purchase is being opened in disguise, is a topic of concern to the industry at present. The policy of putting people into account in many ways In fact, since last year, there have been a number of second - line cities that have relaxed the demand for talent, which is growing more and more in recent months. In May 8th, Shandong province abolished college graduates and the employment years of professional titles and skills level talents, social security years, the nature of units, and residence limits. In April 22nd, Shenyang launched the 9 new talent policies. The employment policy was adopted to meet the qualifications of qualified secondary schools and above, and the scope of benefiting groups to enjoy the rent subsidy was relaxed, and the subsidy standard was improved. In March 23rd, the Xian Municipal Public Security Bureau announced that all students in the country could be settled online only by their student ID cards and identity cards. In March 1st, Nanjing stipulated that undergraduates under the age of 40 could be directly settled. Since last year, Wuhan, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Changsha and other places have implemented the loose talent placement rules, and have achieved some results. These settled policies have brought large population inflows to the cities over a certain period of time. In Xian, which was most recently discussed as an example, according to the data published by the Xian Municipal Public Security Bureau, the population of Xian was moved to 245 thousand people in the first quarter of this year. In the same period of last year, the city of Xian moved to only 26 thousand people, which has increased nearly 10 times. Side loosening of the property market The competition for talents in cities will also bring some problems while increasing the high-quality population of cities. The most direct impact is the possibility of breaking through the restriction policies that are being implemented in those cities. By comparing the current restriction policies implemented by most two or three line cities, it is easy to find that most of the implementation standards of these policies are based on household registration. In most cities, the purchase standard is two sets of local household registration, which can be purchased from overseas domicile. The standard of individual second tier cities is that the local household registration can be purchased, and the household registration required to provide a certain period of time can be purchased. For example, the limited purchase policy of the city of Xian stipulates that the household household registered in the city for buying commodity housing or second-hand housing in the area of the restricted housing purchase area must be provided with a personal income tax or social insurance certificate for more than 2 years (including 2 years) in the city (including Xixian New Area). The introduction of talent has relaxed the restriction of the property market from the side. At the same time, many cities in order to attract talents to settle down, they also adopted direct purchase preferences and other measures. For example, the system of talent guarantee room and talent housing voucher introduced by Wuhan can provide rental housing and preferential housing for the introduction of talents. College students can apply for rental housing for college graduates, and can be leased to rental housing below 20% of the market price; Shijiazhuang directly launches rental subsidies, qualified personnel to work in Shijiazhuang. In 5 years, the maximum rent allowance is 2000 yuan per month. According to the data of chain home network, this subsidy standard is enough to rent a set of 90 square meters of high quality house in the core area of Shijiazhuang. And Zhengzhous talent preference is directly reflected in the purchase of subsidies, young people for the first time to buy housing, doctoral subsidy of 100 thousand yuan per person, 50 thousand yuan per person, undergraduate students 20 thousand yuan. Loose household policy brings volatility in the property market Some people in the industry believe that the above measures will retain the talent while limiting the purchase policy. Such as Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei said: local talent policy should not be linked to real estate limited purchase, for real talent, more should provide direct residential housing. It is easy to bring talent to market and bring instability to the real estate market. Guo Yi, deputy general manager and chief analyst of the market development department of Siyuan real estate, also said: rental subsidy is understandable, after all, the new entry into this city, identity transformation is a process. The purchase subsidy directly refers to the demand of circumvent the restriction of purchase. Such guidance is not worth advocating. After all, housing does not stir is the guiding principle of big policy. The purpose of talent introduction is to stimulate economic growth. In fact, from the urban data of some easing policies, the policy did bring some influence to the market. According to data provided by the Shanghai Institute of inhabit research, Xians stock has declined at a faster rate since October 2017. From October 2017 to March 2018, the inventory area dropped from 18 million 600 thousand square meters to 16 million 280 thousand square meters, though such a huge stock was also in high water in a large number of two or three line cities. Flat. Judging from the performance of housing prices, as of March this year, the average housing price in Xian was 12 thousand and 200 yuan / square meter, up nearly 50% over the same period last year. Another example is Chengdu, where its transaction area went up all the way after last November. In March this year, it reached an area of 780 thousand square meters, an increase of 47% over the same period last year. In March, the stock area dropped to 4 million 180 thousand square meters, down 28% compared with the same period last year. However, from the perspective of housing prices, these cities are still in the normal range of fluctuation, and few people are willing to transfer their accounts for real estate. For the talent settled policy, the intention is not to deregulation of the property market policy, but from the perspective of effectiveness, it will stimulate some housing demand. Therefore, similar policies are closely related to the recent market warming. Especially in cities like Xian, which have higher inventory levels, the performance is particularly obvious. Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of the Shanghai Institute of Yi Ju, further stated that the policy is guided by the introduction of talent and the contention of talent. It does have positive significance to the real estate market. This policy is different from the restriction of the limited purchase. Analysis Relaxation of talent is not for the digestion of real estate stock The easing policy is mainly aimed at achieving an iterative upgrading of population structure and playing a positive role in regional industrial transformation. Guo Yi pointed out: the introduction of high educated high-quality talents to the city, especially a large number of young college students, can help solve the problem of aging, which is the core goal of every city. Only by allowing these people to live in cities and settle down can they generate certain consumption kinetic energy. From the point of view of urban development, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xian and Chengdu are in the transformation of industrial structure. The information industry, biomedicine, high-end manufacturing industry are the main direction of the adjustment and transformation of the local industrial structure, and the talent is undoubtedly the basis for the transformation. After the implementation of the loose household policy, the high quality talents, which are partly confined to the policy and house prices in the big cities, will also flow to the competitive two or three line cities. However, Yan Yuejin also said: the short-term increase in population size will cause panic in the housing market, which will easily lead to many other pressures. This is something that market and policy makers need to pay attention to. In fact, a large influx of population will also set higher requirements for urban matching and public service capabilities. At the same time, in the large cities, we should try to avoid the capacity of the population to exceed the city, to control the real estate market to the peoples livelihood through the policy regulation and control, and to strengthen the public service capacity of the city, so that the expansion of the city can keep up the pace of its development. Source: Chen Yuming, editor in chief of Beijing News: Xu Meng _NN7485 From the point of view of urban development, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xian and Chengdu are in the transformation of industrial structure. The information industry, biomedicine, high-end manufacturing industry are the main direction of the adjustment and transformation of the local industrial structure, and the talent is undoubtedly the basis for the transformation. After the implementation of the loose household policy, the high quality talents, which are partly confined to the policy and house prices in the big cities, will also flow to the competitive two or three line cities. However, Yan Yuejin also said: the short-term increase in population size will cause panic in the housing market, which will easily lead to many other pressures. This is something that market and policy makers need to pay attention to. In fact, a large influx of population will also set higher requirements for urban matching and public service capabilities. At the same time, in the large cities, we should try to avoid the capacity of the population to exceed the city, to control the real estate market to the peoples livelihood through the policy regulation and control, and to strengthen the public service capacity of the city, so that the expansion of the city can keep up the pace of its development.