The second cold war will not erupt in the US and China, and the two major trends will not be reversed.

category:Military
 The second cold war will not erupt in the US and China, and the two major trends will not be reversed.


Objective conditions are not available The cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union took place under four basic conditions. First, ideologically, there is a fundamental cause of the opposition between both sides, which drives and dominates the mutual policy of both sides. Both sides will defeat and destroy each other as a strategic goal; secondly, the two economies are independent and mutually exclusive; thirdly, the whole world pattern is divided into two groups, which are not two standing; and fourth, the two sides each. A military alliance for the purpose of confrontation. Obviously, the above four conditions do not exist between China and the United States today. First of all, the fundamental reason for the tension between China and the United States is not the opposite of ideology, but the conflict of interest. President Xi Jinping repeatedly stressed that China will never export his own ideology and political system, but actively seek cooperation and development with the outside world and create an inclusive and open destiny community. The China plan advocated by some experts and scholars is also aimed at promoting development rather than Color Revolution. In Sino US relations, China has always been committed to Developing Sino US relations on the basis of cooperation since reform and opening up. On the other hand, since Nixons visit to China, the previous US governments policies toward China are mainly driven by interests and ideology is not the mainstream. At present, although both American conservatives and liberals agree that the success of the Beijing model is a major challenge to the Washington model, China has become a opposite strategy for the United States, but the Trump administration has not demonize China as ideologically as its predecessor. Once again, to create a two faction camp in todays world is nothing but a dream. China is different from the United States in its confrontation, and has no intention of creating an international anti American united front. The Trump administration is also hard pressed to gather an international camp to contain China. Even in the Asia Pacific region, countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia aligned with the United States have different interests (even conflicts) in Chinas policy towards China, and the difference between the United States and its European allies in Chinas policy towards China is more obvious. Finally, despite the fact that the United States still has an American led security alliance system, it is impossible to dominate the worlds security affairs. After all, almost all developing countries, especially BRICs, are not in the US security alliance system. China does not want to build an alliance for the United States. The principle of Chinas foreign relations is partnership without alliance, and partners and allies are essentially different. The former is driven by interests, is open and inclusive in the organization and is equal in relation. The purpose is to win cooperation and win-win. The latter is driven by ideology, and the organization is closed and unequal, and its purpose is confrontation. The Trump administration is the most disadvantaged since World War II Since the industrial revolution, there are two distinct characteristics of the rising world power: first, the military forces in the global war; two, the international order established by the big powers (the hegemony). (Britain challenges the international order of Spain, Germany and Japan challenge the Anglo Saxons international order, the Soviet Union challenges the international rank of the United States. Order). However, China does not possess the global military strength in the process of its rise. In recent years, Chinas rapid development of military strength is aimed at strengthening national defense rather than going to war all over the world. More importantly, the reform and opening policy, which leads the rise of China, does not challenge the international order dominated by the United States and the western world for a long time, but is to integrate with the world and actively integrate into the current international order. It is the integration mode of development that decides and brings about the success of Chinas peaceful rise. As a result, the two big powers of China and the United States coexist in the same international system and become stakeholders in the current international order. This reality determines that Sino US relations have gone far beyond the bilateral relations: any issue between China and the United States is of world significance. On the contrary, any major problems and challenges in the world will be difficult to control if there is no communication and cooperation between China and the United States. In such a situation, the Trump administrations cold war against China will not only hurt Sino US relations, but also have a negative impact on the whole world situation. China and the United States coexist in the same international system and depend on each other economically. The result is that the interests of both countries are highly diversified. Whether the two sides are formulating external or internal policies, there will be a complicated situation that some interest groups support and another interest group must oppose. Therefore, the decisive factor for the stability of bilateral relations is not the conflict of interests, but the ability of leaders to control and control their internal affairs. The ability to control and control is good, the coordination of policies is good, and there is consistency between them, which is conducive to the stability of bilateral relations. On the contrary, the policy is chaotic and changing, and bilateral relations are also ups and downs. History shows that, although Chinas national strength is weaker than the United States, the advantages of the system make Chinese leaders more control over the domestic situation than the US leaders, so China is often the initiative to maintain the stability of Sino US relations. Another phenomenon is that once the US President wins re-election, Sino US relations tend to be stable. After all, a re-election president is much more powerful than the first one. The Trump administration is the most vulnerable government since World War II, and its influence is strong. Facing the outside world, the us first is becoming an embarrassing situation of isolated America. The result of internal and external difficulties is not only the greatest common divisor between the forces of all schools in the United States, but also the necessary means of maintaining the initiative of the Trump administration in bilateral relations and even the whole international affairs. However, the huge divide and conflict of interests among the domestic interest groups make the Trump administration bogged down in formulating any specific policies. Under such circumstances, China should remain calm and never blindly follow the beat of the Trump administration. In this way, even if the United States appears to have reached a consensus to contain China and put forward a corresponding strategy, the huge internal contradictions make it difficult to transform this strategy into a consistent policy, and it is more difficult to implement it more effectively. Two irreversible trends The world is facing a big change in the past hundred years. I wrote in the global times, promoting this change, which is the third modernized tide led by China and India and other emerging countries, and 4 billion people are involved in it. This wave of modernization has led to two irreversible trends: the integration of world economy and the multipolarization of world political structure. The current international system based on multilateral mechanisms provides institutional guarantee for these two tides. It is obvious that the Trump administration emphasizes America first, that unilateralism is retreated, set up tariff barriers, and that the manufacturers of the upstream chain position of the United States to blackmail the downstream chain position even cut off the industrial chain and tread the cold war measures against China, such as the bottom line of Chinas core interests. It is contrary to the development of the world. In contrast, Chinas series of measures are in line with the trend of the world. President Xi Jinping, from the 2017 Davos meeting to the Boao forum in April this year, repeatedly stressed that China should firmly defend the free trade system under the market mechanism, deepen the reform and opening up, further optimize the industrial structure, actively participate in global governance, develop and improve the international order based on the multilateral mechanism; Develop a win-win partnership with all countries and create a common destiny for development. Promoting economic integration in a multipolar world. Chinas success is helpful. The second cold war of the Trump administration seems to be rough, but it is hard to accept his own allies, and the result is inevitable. (the writer is a famous Chinese American scholar and a member of the Robert Bosch foundation of Germany) RichardvonWeizsaker.