Media evaluation of millet Valuation: should Lenovo, Tencent or apple?

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 Media evaluation of millet Valuation: should Lenovo, Tencent or apple?


Millet will be listed in Hongkong for $100 billion valuation, and is expected to become the largest IPO project in Hongkongs history. But inside and outside the industry seems to be more concerned about the scientific level of the valuation. After all, as a familiar hardware manufacturer, Lenovo also has about $10 billion. The Wall Street journal even has a view that the market value is up to $10 billion, with a market value of up to $50 billion, with a market value of up to $10 billion, with hardware manufacturers as a reference. At the beginning of the founding of the millet is firm apple powder, the Lei Jun himself also has rebus, so we will find a certain consistency between the two enterprises. According to the first quarter earnings of apple, the author collects the revenue ratio of apple, of which iPhone, iPad, Mac, AppleWatch, AirPods and other hardware products account for nearly 90% of the revenue. According to millet prospectus, we found that its hardware sales accounted for more than 90%. Hardware sales are the lifelines of two companies. But it was also different, with Apples first quarter profit of $13 billion 820 million, a 22.6% profit margin, a 25% increase in net profit from last year, and a high gross margin for Apples hardware sales. Millet is completely different, net profit of only 12 billion 200 million yuan, accounting for 10.6% of the total income, considering the consistent low price strategy of millet and the previous hardware comprehensive net interest rate is not more than 5%, Millets attitude to the hardware is obvious: contribution sales are low profit margin. On the one hand, the difference in attitude towards hardware lies in the difference in brand premium. The average price of iPhoneX is above $1000, and the average price of iPhone is pushed from $640 to $700, but it still brings 14% of the revenue increment for iPhone; millet stays at the initial stage of brand premium, and is increased from millet MIX to the middle and high end market. The pace of March, but in a short time, it is difficult for millet to have the brand premium capability of apple. On the other hand, we also believe that this is the beginning of the Jobs label. In the prospectus, millet is divided into three categories: hardware, new retail and Internet services, in which the low profit rate is maintained. Then the growth of millet is placed on the other two categories, especially Internet services. Considering that application distribution and Internet advertising have been taken by the Tencent and the two major Ali, and some articles have calculated that the model can support a maximum of $50 billion in market value, so it is necessary to reanalyze apple if it is to support Millets $100 billion market value. Although Cook has high expectations for iPhones future on the grounds of global functional machine sales up to 500 million, it has begun to use Internet services as the main growth point in the actual operation. And apple said that the total revenue of Internet services in 2020 would reach $50 billion, and it would contribute 60% of revenue in the next 5 years. Obviously, Apple hopes that Internet services can dilute the pressure of iPhone sales on revenue, especially under the stimulation of poor sales of iPhoneX. According to prospectus disclosure, in 2017, the average Internet service revenue per user was $9.1 per mu, which is far lower than that of Apples $30 single device. On this issue, it is mainly caused by the closed loop ecology of apple. The advantages of apple in the application and distribution of music make it have a more powerful profit gene. In contrast, millet is innate with the open ecology of Android. But we found that millet is building its own closed-loop system -- Mi Jia. According to the information of ARI, the IoT field is the next 5 years, the largest area of annual recovery in the main business of Millet (2.6% for smartphones). As far as Mickeys scale is concerned today, it is very likely that millet will become an important ecological provider of the Internet of things based on family. Mickey provides users with developers, and has brought more than 100 million of the equipment to millet. When we are discussing the 9.1 dollar contribution of the millet single user far below the 30 dollar standard of the apple single device, we ignore the driving force of the rice project on the Internet service, and the value-added service of the equipment is expected to become an important source of increasing revenue. At this point, in the comparison of millet and apple, we can basically draw the following conclusions: 1. both sides are the main driver of the hardware; 2. both should benefit from the Internet service, but the apple based on its own ecology, millet to build the rice family ecology, this is the important symbol of the Lei Jun from Rebs back to the Lei Jun; 3. millet The advantage lies in the number of equipment, the rice home has 100 million equipment, the millet mobile phone 3 years shipments Two hundred million, plus notebook and other products, estimated the use of millet equipment should be more than 300 million, is the 1/4 apple. Apples $900 billion market capitalization, millet is $100 billion, but compared to revenue, millet less than 1/10, if this calculation, millet valuation is indeed too high. But from the business model and current operation data of millet, there will be many similarities between the two sides in the next 5 years. In the low price of millet and expansion of overseas market, the total gap between the two sides will be narrowed. Millet 2017 Internet service revenue of 9 billion 900 million yuan, mainly by the advertising and game income contribution, at present, the advantages of the rice home is also mainly reflected in the sales of IoT products. But with the scale effect rising, the income potential of the Internet services of MI Jias ecosystem will continue to emerge. But millet has almost no chance of trial and error of iPhoneX, on the one hand, the domestic mobile phone manufacturers look around, millet is difficult to find the opportunity to find the transfer crisis in India as in 2016, on the other hand, the goal of low profit operation of hardware is fast sales, once the mistake appears stagnation, the hardware will become a burden. Even if Apple is correcting the high pricing of iPhoneX, it has been reported that Apple intends to hand the OLED screen order share to part of the LG, hoping to force Samsung to reduce the cost of the screen and eventually reduce the iPhone price. The industry generally believes that the 2018 new iPhone should converge on the high price strategy. In any case, millet is valued at 1/9 of apple, which is reasonable. (the writer is a financial columnist) this article is from the daily economic news editor: Wang Fengzhi _NT2541 But millet has almost no chance of trial and error of iPhoneX, on the one hand, the domestic mobile phone manufacturers look around, millet is difficult to find the opportunity to find the transfer crisis in India as in 2016, on the other hand, the goal of low profit operation of hardware is fast sales, once the mistake appears stagnation, the hardware will become a burden. Even if Apple is correcting the high pricing of iPhoneX, it has been reported that Apple intends to hand the OLED screen order share to part of the LG, hoping to force Samsung to reduce the cost of the screen and eventually reduce the iPhone price. The industry generally believes that the 2018 new iPhone should converge on the high price strategy. In any case, millet is valued at 1/9 of apple, which is reasonable. (the author is a financial columnist)