The most pessimistic period of real estate is over.

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 The most pessimistic period of real estate is over.


In March, a lot of news came from the real estate market.

On the one hand, the research institute passed a cold number. In February, sales of top 100 housing companies fell by more than 20% annually, and by more than 10% year-on-year. The upsurge of home ownership in the third and fourth tier cities is no longer there.

On the other side, the sales circle began to scramble for houses. For example, see Shenzhen line up to grab houses, 80 million second light, some people can not grab crying. Another example is the hot spot of Suzhou Tupai and the robbery of houses by thousands of people in Nanjing.

The property market in 2019 seems a bit confusing. China News Agency (CNP) is a through-train reporter who talked with several salesmen, maybe to give you a glimpse.

Hou Yutong Mapping of Guoshi Direct Train

Behind the heat may be routines.

On the last day of February, Hengda broke a news that Xu Jiayin personally took charge of the sale and sold the houses at a 10% discount nationwide.

At first glance, its absolutely big news. A million-grade house is 100,000 yuan cheaper in a twinkling of an eye.

Slowly, the country is a through-train consultation Heng mostly sales offices, the answer is that the discount promotion of the house is basically clearing the tail source and bargain room. For example, the degrading rate of a project has reached 90%. In order to liquidate the project as soon as possible, developers will choose to sell at a lower price. Again, for example, some buildings, floors or houses with poor spatial patterns will have certain preferential prices.

Xie Yifeng, president of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, told the country that it was a through train. Hengdas nine-discount housing has been a drama for many years. Especially after the Spring Festival, the double eleventh discount promotion is basically an example of action, and the same is true in 2018.

Xie Yifeng also mentioned that Hengdas sales target for this year is 600 billion yuan, and it completed 550 billion yuan last year. Running ahead at the beginning of the year to increase sales promotion, the pressure behind will ease.

The question is, is the house really cheap for buyers? After the discount, did the previous customers lose money?

Hengda Tianjin first floor sales staff frankly said: In Hengda to buy a house, it is impossible to buy cheaper. Hengda Langfang first floor sales said: Later prices rose as a whole, and discounts are not appropriate now. Hengda Handan first floor sales said: absolutely not the same house, let customers suffer losses.

Speaking of it, its like double 11 in the real estate industry.

A person engaged in real estate sales told China is a through train, discount promotion is more like a speech of real estate enterprises, the purpose is to increase visitors and visits, enhance the building heat, to just start the sales staff inspire.

The salesperson also disclosed that, as for a real estate, there is a sea of people robbing scene, in addition to special circumstances, most of them are routines of salesmen. Sales start looking for intentional customers a month or two in advance, and then focus on a weekend to gather people to the sales center, to create heat, and to intensify peoples enthusiasm for buying houses.

So, if you dont buy a house, youll have to polish your eyes.

Real estate policy ushered in marginal relaxation

The trend of Chinas real estate market is closely related to the adjustment of national policies. In 2019, the real estate market trend, policy has given a signal.

Yuan Hao, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, analyzed that the governments work report in 2019 revealed two major signals. First, there was no obvious change in the formulation of real estate tax. This year, it may be diluted. The value-added tax on real estate dropped from 10% to 9%, slightly reducing the tax burden on real estate enterprises.

Secondly, the report does not mention housing is not speculative, emphasizing the one city one policy of the first and second lines and the realization of structural demand boost in the planning of the three metropolitan areas. Considering that in the first month of 2019, the Statistics Bureau no longer listed 15 hot cities separately in the announcement of 70 citieshouse prices, which indicates that the policy regulation under the theme of housing non-speculation has achieved initial results, thus the one city, one policy of the first and second-tier cities will gain greater autonomy.

According to Kerui Real Estate Research Statistics, about 20 cities have relaxed the regulation of the real estate market in varying degrees. Specific manifestations include relaxing settlements, loosening restrictions on purchase, loosening restrictions on sale, loosening restrictions on price, interest rate adjustment and so on.

Yao Yao, director of China Regional Research Department of Zhongliang Lianhuang Bank, believes that the marginal relaxation of the regulation and control policy of the property market in 2019 is the general trend.

Yao also said that the probability of introducing a comprehensive and relaxed stimulus policy is low, because it will increase the systemic risk of the existing economy. It is expected that the main tone of regulation and control of the real estate market will remain unchanged in 2019, but cities will continue the regulation style of taking measures according to the city. Under the goal of stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations, some excessively strict regulation policies will be adjusted.

Chen Zhixu, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, also believes that at present, the policy is still in the bottom stage, and whether it will transition to stimulation remains to be seen.

Overall, achieving six stability (stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations) is still an important part of government work. In 2019, the country has a greater tolerance for economic growth, and the target appears again in the form of intervals, set at 6% - 6.5%. There is a saying in the government work report: As long as employment is stable and income increases, we will have more confidence.

And how big the gate of the real estate market will open depends on how the main responsibility of each city is implemented. In 2018, nearly 15 trillion yuan of commercial housing was sold nationwide. Will this exceed that figure this year?

Source: Guo is responsible editor of through train: Shi Jianlei_NBJ11331