Since the beginning of the year, the land market transactions in China have generally declined.
According to the monitoring data of Tongqi Research Institute, in February 2019, there were 1168 transactions of 300 urban construction land in China, 929 less than last month and 275 less than the same period last year. The turnover amount reached 198.475 billion yuan, 40.26% lower than the previous year, and 30.36% lower than the previous year. The average floor price was 2315.97 yuan/m2, up 15.68% and down 7.5% from the previous year.
From the perspective of the average floor price, the average floor price of the first-tier cities is 1108.22 yuan per square metre, with a significant increase of 106.3% and 13.41% year-on-year; the average floor price of the second-tier cities is 2553.6 yuan per square metre, up 1.29% and down 23.94% year-on-year; the average floor price of the third-tier and fourth-tier cities is 1117.64 yuan per square metre, down 2.27% and 6.76% year-on-year respectively.
It is noteworthy that most housing enterprises are not very willing to take land. According to the monitoring data of Tongcai Research Institute, in the first two months of 2019, the concentration degree of TOP20 listed real estate enterprises has remained basically unchanged, while the concentration degree of TOP20 listed real estate enterprises has slightly declined.
In terms of transaction amount, the total transaction amount of TOP20 listed real estate enterprises in the first two months was 259.301 billion yuan, accounting for 48.86% of the total transaction amount of land in the whole country, up 0.2 percentage points over the same period of last year; while in terms of transaction building area, the total transaction amount of TOP20 listed real estate enterprises was 57.565 million square meters, accounting for 22.88% of the total transaction area of land in the whole country, accounting for a decline of 4.42 percentage points over the same period of last year.
In addition, according to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the first two months of 2019, the premium rate of land in hot cities remained basically around 10% and kept low; in addition, the total land price of the eight housing enterprisesrights and interests exceeded 10 billion yuan, of which Vanke ranked first with 28.3 billion yuan.
Zhang Dawei, Chief Real Estate Analyst of Central Plains, said that at the beginning of 2019, land transactions in many cities across the country were still in the adjustment period, especially in the first and second tier cities, Housing enterprises had a high enthusiasm for residential land acquisition. However, the real estate market has gradually entered a period of adjustment, resulting in the overall willingness of real estate enterprises to take land is not strong. With strict supervision of funds such as trust and blocked financing channels, real estate enterprises are relatively cautious about plots with higher total prices.
Last year, some housing enterprises did not spend the amount of land they planned to spend. After the industry entered the adjustment period, the financing channels were not smooth, and the housing enterprises finally chose to shrink the investment front on their own initiative. Some executives of real estate companies told the Securities Daily that 2019 was the peak period for housing companies to repay their debts. Some housing companies have pledged a large proportion of their equity to finance. In order to resist industry risks, it is not surprising to reduce investment in the industry.
Zhang Dawei believes that in general, real estate de-leveraging has become a trend. Price-limiting policies in first and second-tier cities make it difficult for projects to enter the market, which will reduce the willingness of Housing enterprises to take land. However, some enterprises still take land actively. On the one hand, some plots are acquired through equity transfer, and the price may be lower than the market expectations. On the other hand, the land supply in the current and second-tier cities has increased significantly. On the other hand, the financing difficulty of Housing enterprises has been reduced recently, and the financial pressure of individual enterprises has eased, so the land reserve has been increased.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Daily: Yang Yi_NBJ10647